Rating the Sprint Cup title contenders heading into treacherous Talladega
The 2016 edition of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup has reached the midpoint, five races down, five more to go, and it’s still wide open.
Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. have two Chase victories apiece, while Jimmie Johnson has one.
So where does that leave the remaining field of 12 drivers in terms of a championship favorite? Who are the drivers to beat and who are the ones who at best are long shots? Read on.
Distant chance: Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Austin Dillon
Understand anything can still happen and all 12 of the Chase drivers are still mathematically in contention, at least until next Sunday in Talladega, where four more will be eliminated.
But here’s a simple, proven truth: To win the championship, you have to win races in the Chase.
Dillon, now in his third full season, has never won any Cup race, let alone one in the Chase. Neither has rookie Elliott, who is last in points. That weighs heavily against both of them.
Hamlin has come close to a championship before but believes that year in and year out, he has the worst luck of any driver in the Chase. That’s not a good sign.
Fair chance: Carl Edwards, Kurt Busch, Joey Logano
I don’t really expect any of these three guys to win it all for one very simple reason: Each of these three drivers has been consistently outperformed this year by at least one of their own teammates. It’s hard to be the champion when your being beaten by the guy or guys on your own team week in and week out.
Good chance: Brad Keselowski, Matt Kenseth, Kyle Busch
All three of these drivers are past Sprint Cup champions. They all have very fast race cars and they all have at least three top-five finishes in the first half of the Chase.
No one would be the least bit surprised if one of these guys wins it all, even though Keselowski is deep in points heading into Talladega.
Strong favorites: Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Martin Truex Jr.
Really, I see one of these three as your 2016 Sprint Cup champion. Collectively, they have won all five Chase races and a total of 11 all year long.
Johnson, of course, has six championships, and his Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolets have definitely picked up speed in the Chase.
Truex is the best of the five affiliated Toyotas and has led more laps than any other driver this year. He made it to the final round last year and should advance this year, too. As noted, he has two Chase victories already.
And what can you say about Harvick and the No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing team? They are superb in the clutch as they’ve proven in each of the three years the current Chase format has been in place. They are at their best when their backs are to the wall.
It ought to be a fast and furious battle all the way to Homestead. And at the halfway point, it’s a long way from over.
