Short New Hampshire race puts emphasis on avoiding mistakes
It is now race number two in the Chase and Loudon is a track we were just at a couple months ago.
Obviously even though it's only been eight or nine weeks, the track will change as it has sat there all this time in the hot summer heat. What that means is that the track will have lost some grip since the last time we were there.
Fans may not realize but New Hampshire Motor Speedway is the flattest track we race on outside of the road courses at Sonoma and Watkins Glen. To me the Loudon race really starts on Friday in qualifying.
I say that because it is a very, very important race to be starting up front in. It's a very short race. Sunday you aren't going to see very many trips to pit road and track position will be at an all-time premium, so you really need to be fast and pretty much dialed in when you unload off the truck Friday.
Sunday I believe we will see even more strategy unfold. Do I stay out? Do I try and get off-sequence with the leaders when it comes to pit stops if I am in the back of the pack? Do get two tires or do I take four?
Loudon certainly is that type of a race track.
In the first race a couple months ago the drivers who are now in the Chase fared pretty well there.
Matt Kenseth in his No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota won the race. Tony Stewart finished second and he needs a good run as his 16th place finish last Sunday at Chicago was marginal.
Joey Logano and Kevin Harvick finished in the top 5 back in July so I expect them to be players again Sunday.
Outside of Talladega where anyone can win, I don't see a non-Chase racer winning a race in this year's Chase. I just think those 16 drivers and teams are too strong and too stout.
Going back to this being a shorter race than the others, that plays a factor if the driver or team makes a mistake.
The odds are stacked against you Sunday if you get busted on pit road for speeding or your pit crew lets a tire get away outside of your pit box.
This is one of those races where you simply cannot beat yourself. One mistake at Loudon and unless something miraculous happens, your chances of winning are over.
We do see the groove widening out at Loudon and that's a good thing. As we have pointed out numerous times, it seems this new aero package plays a bigger role on the flatter tracks because you don't have the banking available to hold the car.
So the less downforce on a flat track plays a very big role. Loudon always has been and always will be a unique track. If you run well there Sunday, I think it builds your notebook and your confidence for when we tackle Phoenix on November 13th.
Phoenix has similar characteristics to Loudon and the importance of the Phoenix race can't be over-stated. It is an elimination race that sets up the Final Four who will race for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship a week later at Homestead.
