By Bob Pockrass
Two of the four NASCAR Cup Series championship finalists have won the last two races at Phoenix Raceway, the site of the championship race this upcoming Sunday.
So it would make sense that Joey Logano – who won there in March – and Denny Hamlin, who won there a year ago when the track played host to the semifinal round elimination race – are the favorites to win the title.
However, Brad Keselowski won the most recent races at New Hampshire and Richmond, and he will bring that car to Phoenix this weekend.
And Chase Elliott, the other finalist, rides the momentum of having won Sunday at Martinsville Speedway, making his way into the championship race.
So each of the four championship drivers has a reason to feel confident. The driver among them who finishes the best at Phoenix will capture the 2020 Cup Series title.
"We'll believe what we want to believe and we'll believe in ourselves first," Logano said. "I'll tell you again we're the favorites to win this thing.
"That's how it is in my mind. I said that a couple weeks ago. Doesn't matter what anyone else thinks."
Here’s a look at each of their chances, in order of their seeding, which is based on best finishes from the semifinal round:
1. Joey Logano
Logano led 60 laps on his way to winning in March at Phoenix, his second win in the first four races. Since then, he has won just one race, but it was a big one – at Kansas to open the semifinal round, giving him two stress-free races as the first Championship 4 qualifier.
It also has given his team two weeks to prepare for Phoenix, and he said that during the rain delays at Texas, he spent a lot of time with crew chief Paul Wolfe discussing the championship race.
"The past two weeks the advantage we earned was to be able to focus on our Phoenix car before everybody," Logano said. "That's the advantage we had.
"We get to go to these races not having our tongues hanging out trying to get in. Our batteries are charged up and we're ready to go."
The Team Penske driver has two victories and five top-10s at Phoenix, where he has an average finish of 14.3.
2. Chase Elliott
Elliott hasn’t won at Phoenix, but he had also never won at Martinsville and is coming off a victory there that launched him into the championship.
He led 93 laps at Phoenix in March but settled for a seventh-place finish. He has two top five finishes in nine starts, including a second in November 2017, and an average finish of 13th.
The Hendrick Motorsports driver is the first driver from the team since 2016 to qualify for the championship.
"The more that you can enjoy that moment – enjoy being backed up against a wall, having to perform – the more you can enjoy that, the better off you're going to be," Elliott said.
"That's something we put a lot of emphasis on, something I personally put emphasis on, to try to get better in those moments."
3. Brad Keselowski
Like Elliott, Keselowski led plenty of laps in March, as he paced the field for 82 circuits before finishing 11th. The Team Penske driver also has a best finish of second at the track, where he has six top-fives and 10 top-10s with an average finish of 13.5 in 22 career starts.
Keselowski indicated that if he could get to Phoenix, he thinks taking the New Hampshire/Richmond car shows he would be a threat for the title.
"All of us are pretty evenly-matched going into Phoenix," Keselowski said. "Denny has had some good runs there, Chase has had some good runs there. Joey won last spring.
"We've been so good on that type of track this season. I think it's about as evenly-matched as it's going to get."
4. Denny Hamlin
Hamlin did win at Phoenix a year ago, when he led 143 laps, but that was a different aerodynamic package. He was 20th in March.
The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has two wins and 13 top-fives in 30 career Phoenix starts, with an average finish of 11.3.
"We obviously had a great Phoenix last year," Hamlin said. "Things were a lot different. You had a different aerodynamic package.
"Certainly I feel like when I go there, I'm going to roll off and hopefully have a race winner."
Xfinity: Allgaier the favorite
Justin Allgaier finished second behind Harrison Burton at Martinsville, but to some, that was just as big of a win, as he clinched a spot among the four championship finalists.
Allgaier has two wins and seven top-five finishes in 12 career Xfinity starts at the track. He has an average finish of 8.8, and many believe he was the best driver there in March where pit strategy helped contribute to a 13th place finish.
"When we found out last fall that we were going to be using Phoenix as the championship finale, probably nobody had as big a smile on their face as I did," Allgaier said.
None of the top-four drivers at Phoenix (including Xfinity regulars Brandon Jones and Harrison Burton, who went 1-2) are among the four finalists. Justin Haley was fifth, Chase Briscoe was sixth, and Austin Cindric was eighth. Cindric does have two top-fives at Phoenix.
Allgaier is the only driver who has been part of the Championship 4, and none of the four have won an Xfinity title.
Trucks: Enfinger riding momentum
Grant Enfinger will ride the momentum of a win-and-in, walkoff-victory-type moment at Martinsville to qualify for the championship.
He has two top-five finishes at Phoenix and is the only driver among the four finalists who was top-five last year. Brett Moffitt won at Phoenix in 2018, which was the semifinal round elimination race that year, on his way to the series title. Sheldon Creed has one career top-10 at Phoenix, while Zane Smith has a top-five – in an Xfinity car, but has never raced a truck on the track.
"I’m really excited about Phoenix," Enfinger said. "I feel like we have a great opportunity there. Our short-track stuff is where we have struggled in the past and our mile-and-a-half stuff, we were pretty good in the past and we swapped those roles a little bit this year."
On The Air
Friday
Gander RV Trucks Lucas Oil 150, 8 p.m. ET, FS1
Saturday
Xfinity Desert Diamond Casino West Valley 200, 5 p.m. ET, NBCSN
Sunday
Cup Championship, 3 p.m. ET, NBC
Stat of Note
The 236 laps led by Elliott in his victory at Martinsville were the most he has led in any race.
Social Spotlight
They Said It
"I just want to get the season over with." – Kevin Harvick
