National Basketball Association

2022-23 NBA MVP Race: Will final week of season determine MVP?

Updated Apr. 18, 2023 3:22 p.m. ET

Melissa Rohlin

FOX Sports NBA Writer

A handful of games remain, meaning the top MVP candidates have just days left to finalize their cases.

Here's where the MVP race stands in my eyes, with less than a week to go in the regular season.

1. Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers

Stats: 33.0 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 4.2 APG
FOX Bet MVP Odds: -227

A lot was made of Embiid missing the big matchup against Nikola Jokić and the Denver Nuggets last week because of right calf tightness. Many thought he was ducking the smoke. Some thought he should be docked points for that. But I'm not in that camp.

One game should not have a big impact on who wins an award that's predicated upon an 82-game body of work. Not to mention, that decision is often up to a team’s medical staff. So, judging upon the entire season, my vote still goes to Embiid.

In an extremely tight race, I'm giving a hair's edge to Embiid, who is leading the league in scoring while shooting a career-high 54.2% from the field, is an elite defender, and has led his team to a 51-27 record. He has been incredibly dominant this season, taking his game to another level. Embiid has shown time after time that he has a killer instinct and can be the most dominant player on the court on any given night. This season, after being the runner-up for the award the last two years, it belongs to him.

2. Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets

Stats: 24.9 PPG, 11.9 RPG, 9.9 APG
FOX Bet MVP Odds: +250

Jokić has been incredible all season and has led the Nuggets to the top seed in the Western Conference (52-26). He's a brilliant scorer and playmaker, and is arguably the biggest offensive threat in the group. But he clearly trails his competition on the defensive end.

Jokić has won the award the last two years and would be in rarified air if he three-peated, joining Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain and Larry Bird. And while Jokic is a phenomenal player who is consistently atop nearly every advanced statistic, I don't think he edged out Embiid this season to join that remarkably elite list.

3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks

Stats: 31.1 PPG, 11.8 RPG, 5.6 APG
FOX Bet MVP Odds: +650

Why is he No. 3, you may ask. It's tough. Antetokounmpo led the team during Khris MIddleton's extended absence, is an incredible two-way player, and has led the Bucks to the best record in the league (56-22). In a normal season, that could've made him a shoo-in for the award.

But this isn't a normal season, considering both Jokić and Embiid are also playing out of their minds and are leading their teams to impressive finishes. Antetokoumpo has played in slightly fewer games than both Embiid and Jokić, which counts for something in this tight of a race.

But, honestly, it's difficult to justify Antetokounmpo being third considering his statline hasn't been matched since Wilt Chamberlain in 1965-66. So, really, it just comes down to how good Embiid and Jokić have been.

Melissa Rohlin is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the league for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Times, the Bay Area News Group and the San Antonio Express-News. Follow her on Twitter @melissarohlin.

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