2023 NBA playoff predictions: First round picks
It's playoff prediction time.
Our NBA reporters — Melissa Rohlin, Ric Bucher and Yaron Weitzman — are here to deliver their picks for the first round of the playoffs.
Check back throughout the playoffs for updates!
EASTERN CONFERENCE FIRST ROUND PREDICTIONS
(1) MILWAUKEE BUCKS vs. (8) MIAMI HEAT
Rohlin: Bucks in 5. The Bucks finished with the best record in the NBA this season (58-24) and are favored to win the championship. Jimmy Butler will make sure the Heat at least win one game, but that’s likely all they’ll get over Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday and Bobby Portis.
Bucher: Bucks in 4. While they have the occasional habit of dropping a game against opponents they should sweep, they seem to be particularly locked in and focused this year. As an older team, they don’t want to add any more games to the ledger than are necessary.
Weitzman: Bucks in 4. Milwaukee is just too big, too tough, too talented and too relentless.
(2) BOSTON CELTICS vs. (7) ATLANTA HAWKS
Rohlin: I see this as a Celtics sweep. This team has been waiting for this moment all season. Jayson Tatum has been champing at the bit to get back to the playoffs after reaching the Finals last season and losing to Golden State in six games. They have depth. They’re skilled on both sides of the court. And, perhaps most importantly, their appetite was whetted — and they’re hungry to go all the way.
Bucher: Celtics in 4. They’ve swept their first-round opponent three of the previous four years, and that includes both the KD-led Nets last year and Embiid-led 76ers three years ago.
Weitzman: Celtics in 5. No. 2-ranked offense. No. 2-ranked defense. Tons of shot creation and big, rangy defenders. This is a team built for the playoffs.
(3) PHILADELPHIA 76ERS vs. (6) BROOKLYN NETS
Rohlin: 76ers in 5. Joel Embiid is finally healthy after being injured in the last three postseasons. He’s playing the best basketball of his life. I don’t see the Nets having much of an answer for him.
Bucher: 76ers in 6. They’re the opposite of the Celtics — they haven’t swept a first-round opponent in the first round during the Embiid era, including when they were the No. 1 seed in the East facing a Raptors squad as height-challenged as the Nets.
Weitzman: 76ers in 5. I’ll give the Nets one game. I think they can catch fire from deep one night. But they also have zero answer for Embiid.
(4) CLEVELAND CAVALIERS vs. (5) NEW YORK KNICKS
Rohlin: Cavs in 6. I’m excited for Donovan Mitchell vs. Jalen Brunson. Both of those guys transformed their respective teams this season. I’m giving the Cavaliers an edge because they finished the season with the league’s top defensive rating (109.9), though pitting that against the Knicks’ fourth-rated offense (117) should be thrilling.
Bucher: Cavs in 6. The mark of Tom Thibodeau teams is that they overachieve in the regular season, leaving little room to elevate their games in the playoffs. I expect more of the same. As long as Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen can stay out of foul trouble, I would expect them to keep Julius Randle subdued.
Weitzman: Cavs in 7. I think this series is going to be a blast, and I’m not sure the Cavs have someone to slot onto Brunson. But Mitchell is a stud and I think their interior size could be the difference. The interesting question for the Knicks: Would Randle returning from his ankle injury help or hurt them?
WESTERN CONFERENCE FIRST ROUND PREDICTIONS
(1) DENVER NUGGETS vs. (8) MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
Rohlin: Denver in 5. Even though the Timberwolves survived their drama of last week to win two play-in games to clinch the eighth seed, the Nuggets are just too tough of a matchup for them. Nikola Jokić and company should breeze past this team.
Bucher: The Nuggets in 5. Even the Utah Jazz, who two years ago also sported the West’s best record, won their first-round matchup in five games.
Weitzman: Nuggets in 5. Denver’s offense is just too explosive.
(2) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES vs. (7) LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Rohlin: Lakers in 6. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are healthy at the same time. The duo has championship experience and the best supporting cast since they went all the way in 2020. While the Grizzlies have a superstar in Ja Morant, Defensive Player of the Year front-runner Jaren Jackson Jr. and a slew of gritty players, I think the Lakers will overwhelm the Grizzlies with their experience and skill.
Bucher: Grizzlies in 5. They aren’t just Morant acrobatics and Desmond Bane 3s and Dillon Brooks sneers. They also had the best defense in the Western Conference despite playing at one of the league’s fastest paces. That’s how the Lakers like to play, too, only they’re not nearly as good defending it.
Weitzman: Grizzlies in 7. Morant did his best to derail their season, but also, if you look past the (very bad!) off-court issues, the Grizz have been a machine all season. They finished the year with the league’s No. 3 defense and No. 11 defense and won 10 of their final 13 games.
(3) SACRAMENTO KINGS vs. (6) GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Rohlin: Warriors in 5. Get ready for Steph, Klay and Draymond to show what they can do. It’s playoff time. Everything changes for this trio, which has won four championships together over the last eight years. The Kings are the league’s Cinderella story this season, but this is the nightmare matchup for them.
Bucher: Warriors in 6. I might feel different if the Kings had any kind of shot-blocking presence, but they have none, and despite Domantas Sabonis controlling the boards, the Warriors won three of their four regular-season meetings. In a battle of offensive powerhouses, I’m not about to bet against the team that has lost a TOTAL of five games in its last six first-round series. Not having home-court advantage for a team that was 11-30 on the road is a concern, but they did win four of their last five.
Weitzman: Warriors in 6. I know the Warriors can’t win on the road, and I know Sacramento’s Golden 1 Center is going to be LOUD. But the Warriors are still, well, the Warriors. They finished the season by winning eight of their final 10 games and seem poised to get Andrew Wiggins back, too.
(4) PHOENIX SUNS vs. (5) LA CLIPPERS
Rohlin: Suns in 5. Man, oh man, did the Clippers get unlucky with this one. If they had gotten a lesser opponent and could’ve bided time until Paul George returns, they could’ve had a deep playoff run. But the George-less Clippers can’t compete against a team with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton.
Bucher: Clippers in 7. It’s an edgy pick, I realize, but the Clippers have several significant advantages, the biggest being their bench. The other is the way Kawhi Leonard is playing right now, which is as well as he has in years. If KD isn’t guarding Kawhi, who is? And if KD is, can he also carry a heavy offensive load? I’ve seen KD play great and still lose a playoff series, I’ve seen Booker and Paul look dominant yet lose to a one-star team. Eric Gordon has the strength and savvy to match up with Paul. If Ivica Zubac can limit Ayton, and Terance Mann and Norm Powell can make Booker earn his points and keep him off the free-throw line, the Clippers have a chance to pull the upset, even if KD goes off.
Weitzman: Suns in 7. This just might be the best series of the entire postseason. Crazy stakes for both teams. The winner could very well win the title. But it looks like the Clippers are going to have to take their shot at the Suns without George. I think that will be the difference.
Ric Bucher is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. He previously wrote for Bleacher Report, ESPN The Magazine and The Washington Post and has written two books, "Rebound," on NBA forward Brian Grant’s battle with young onset Parkinson’s, and "Yao: A Life In Two Worlds." He also has a daily podcast, "On The Ball with Ric Bucher." Follow him on Twitter @RicBucher.
Melissa Rohlin is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the league for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Times, the Bay Area News Group and the San Antonio Express-News. Follow her on Twitter @melissarohlin.
Yaron Weitzman is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. He is the author of "Tanking to the Top: The Philadelphia 76ers and the Most Audacious Process in the History of Professional Sports." Follow him on Twitter @YaronWeitzman.
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