National Basketball Association

2024-25 NBA odds: Bet on Mavericks to miss playoffs

Published Jan. 30, 2025 3:37 p.m. ET

Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The Dallas Mavericks had a tremendous run to the playoffs last year, making two savvy deals at the trade deadline in Feb. 2024 and capturing the Western Conference title as the fifth seed.

They lost to the Celtics in the NBA Finals 4-1, but with a nucleus of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, all signs pointed to this being a dominant team for the next few years. I mean, a year ago this week, Doncic dropped 73 points in a win over the Hawks!

But injuries have crippled them this year, and with less than 35 games left in the season, it’s time to start looking at their odds to not make the playoffs.

Since Luka went down with a calf injury on Christmas, the Mavs have been struggling. Before wins on Jan. 27 and Jan. 29 over two of the worst teams in the league in Washington and New Orleans, their recent record was 5-11.

Compounding matters for the Mavs is that Dereck Lively, the rookie who was pivotal in last year’s playoff run, also went down with an ankle injury.

We see this frequently: Teams that go to the championship in any sport are exhausted from the previous year's run and ultimately struggle to get back to the promised land.

This obviously, does not apply to the NFL’s Kansas City Chiefs, who are playing in Super Bowl LIX aiming for their third Lombardi in a row.

So now the Mavs are slipping down the Western Conference standings, and there’s still no timetable for Doncic's return. They are eighth in the West, just 1.5 games ahead of 11th-place Golden State.

The Suns are on the verge of trading for Jimmy Butler, which I think will help them make the jump to light speed. The Timberwolves, languishing in the 8-10 spot much of the season, are starting to figure things out after trading Karl-Anthony Towns in the offseason. The Clippers just got Kawhi Leonard back.

And the Warriors seem to be resting their stars for the second half of the season.

The Kings muddy the picture with the De’Aaron Fox trade rumors, but it appears as if he’s not going anywhere before the deadline and more likely to be moved in the offseason. Since the firing of coach Mike Brown, they’ve run hot, including winning 11 of 12 games during one stretch.

The Mavs are hopeful Doncic can return before the All-Star break, perhaps by Feb. 12 or 13. But it doesn’t make a ton of sense to return him for a game or two and then have an eight-day break. Perhaps Irving can carry Dallas in the interim, but let’s remember that he hasn’t played more than 58 games in a season in the last five years.

You can bet the Mavs Yes/No on the playoffs and get +154 to miss the postseason. Making the play-in does not count. They must actually play in a series in the top eight.

PICK: Mavs (+154) to not make playoffs

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.

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