Mar 4, 2017; Chapel Hill, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Theo Pinson (1) with the ball as Duke Blue Devils guard Grayson Allen (3) defends in the first half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
The ACC is one of college basketball's premier conferences, and this year boasts elite talent and extended depth. What storylines should fans watch for in the ACC tournament?
Coming into the season the basketball world was certain it had the Atlantic Coast Conference figured out. Even with 14 teams, consensus was reached on which teams would excel and which teams didn't have what it took.
The ACC preseason poll was clear on which teams would lead the league and which teams would sputter out of the gate.
The Duke Blue Devils were so packed with talent that they would dominate not just the league but the nation. The NC State Wolfpack had likewise reloaded and would challenge for a double-bye in the ACC tournament.
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons and Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets were mere speed bumps for the conference's elite squads.
As it does every year, the preseason poll and national expectations were flipped on their heads once actual basketball started.
Duke battled injuries to an up-and-down fifth-place finish, the Wolfpack fired their coach and suffered a blowout loss on the tournament's opening day and the Florida State Seminoles finished second in the league after being voted eighth in the preseason poll.
The bottom of the conference firmed up as well over the course of the season. Georgia Tech, under first-year coach Josh Pastner, pulled off upset wins over the North Carolina Tar Heels, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Florida State — the top three teams in the ACC.
Wake Forest not only fought into tournament consideration, but introduced the conference to one of the nation's best centers in freshman John Collins.
As the ACC tournament gains momentum throughout the week, what are the top storylines to watch for? Which teams at the top will go far in the tournament — and which teams at the bottom can fight their way into the Big Dance?
Jan 24, 2017; Syracuse, NY, USA; Wake Forest Demon Deacons forward John Collins (20) shoots the ball in front of Syracuse Orange forward Taurean Thompson (12) during the first half at the Carrier Dome. The Orange won 81-76. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
Bubble Watch
The ACC has a number of teams that are all but guaranteed a spot in the NCAA Tournament, regardless of whether they win the conference tournament to ensure an automatic bid.
North Carolina, Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida State, Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech and Miami are all going to be in the Big Dance no matter what happens over the next few days.
But for other teams, their tournament chances are less certain. The Syracuse Orange are almost certainly in, but the tournament selection committee is too unpredictable to get overly confident.
The benefit for Syracuse is that they play Miami, a tournament team, on Wednesday so they won't accrue a bad loss even if they drop that game.
Below Syracuse are a pair of teams with more tenuous tournament chances. The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have been an up-and-down team all season, and as of games played Tuesday ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi has Wake Forest projected as one of his "Last Four In."
The Demon Deacons beat Boston College Tuesday to avoid accruing another bad loss, and Wednesday will face off against Virginia Tech. Wake Forest beat the Hokies in Blacksburg Saturday to keep their bubble hopes alive, and another victory could seal their ticket. Lose, and Selection Sunday gets stressful.
On the other side of the bubble line are the Clemson Tigers. Lunardi places Clemson as one of the "Next Four Out," which means they need to leap over a full handful of teams to go dancing. The Tigers have been a mystery all season, clinging to the bubble despite no marquee wins since December.
They kept their hopes alive with a 75-61 win over Dennis Smith Jr. and the NC State Wolfpack and Wednesday face the Duke Blue Devils for a chance at making a name for themselves. Win, and they log that key win the committee will be searching for. Lose, and that's all she wrote.
Mar 4, 2017; Syracuse, NY, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets center Ben Lammers (44) drives the ball as Syracuse Orange forward Tyler Lydon (20) during the second half of a game at the Carrier Dome. Syracuse won 90-61. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
Any Magic Left For Syracuse?
Last season the Syracuse Orange had to sweat out the bubble with a 19-13 record and once awarded a 10-seed were largely dismissed as one of the teams likely to make an early exit. Turmoil surrounding the coaching staff was more than a backdrop to an inconsistent season.
Then the Orange shocked the world and made a run from that 10-spot, not only upsetting Dayton in its first game but winning the entire Midwest Regional, complete with a huge second-half comeback against the top-seeded Virginia Cavaliers.
Although they lost in the Final Four to the North Carolina Tar Heels, head coach Jim Boeheim had added a bit of March Magic to his already impressive career.
This season the Orange find themselves in a similar position, just above the cut line with an 18-13 record prior to the start of the ACC tournament.
Whether they can make another run deep into the tournament will have a lot to do with what happens around them, but this week they can take the first step in that direction.
With such an uncertain group of teams vying to make the NCAA tournament, a few wins in the ACC tournament could put Syracuse in a favorable position to make a move. Their first game comes against Miami, and the Hurricanes lost big to Syracuse early in conference play.
The real challenge — and opportunity — would come on Friday against North Carolina. Their last two games — a January meeting this season and their Final Four clash last season — have been dominant wins for the Tar Heels.
If the Orange can pull off the upset, they will not only improve their seed but open the door for another team to wrest a No. 1 seed from North Carolina.
The momentum they build this week can give this team confidence for another March run, and their first chance comes Wednesday at noon in Brooklyn.
Feb 28, 2017; Durham, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Frank Jackson (15) drives to the basket against Florida State Seminoles guard Trent Forrest (3) in the second half at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Dolejs-USA TODAY Sports
What Is Duke Going To Do?
All of the accolades for coach Mike Krzyzewski start leaking out in March every season, from his 1,062 career wins to his five national championships. Since 2000, Coach K and the Duke Blue Devils have won 11 of a possible 18 ACC tournament titles.
Duke entered the season as the No. 1 team in the country, with a loaded freshman class added into one of the best returning rosters in the nation. Not only were they pegged to win the ACC, but they were preseason favorites to win it all.
Then the season played out and following Duke has been a roller coaster for seemingly every minute.
Injuries to start the season hampered the additions of their loaded freshman frontcourt, while preseason All-American Grayson Allen has been held back by his leg, both an ankle injury and his inability to keep said leg to himself while near opposing players.
This team has the firepower to make a run, headlined by breakout star Luke Kennard. Freshman Jayson Tatum has been excellent, seniors Matt Jones and Amile Jefferson are consistently dependable, and the prospect of Frank Jackson or Harry Giles suddenly stepping up gives this team untapped potential no other team can claim.
If the Blue Devils are going to make a run, it may start in the ACC tournament. After losing three of their last four games, a conference crown could help it regain a top seed and position itself to roll off the six wins it needs to claim a sixth title. They begin that battle Wednesday afternoon against the Clemson Tigers.
Mar 4, 2017; Louisville, KY, USA; Louisville Cardinals guard Donovan Mitchell (45) celebrates with forward Mangok Mathiang (12) during the second half against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at KFC Yum! Center. Louisville defeated Notre Dame 71-64. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports
Can Louisville Win A National Title?
The Louisville Cardinals have hovered just behind North Carolina all season as the second-best team in the ACC.
While a couple of late losses dropped them to fourth in the conference standings, they are the team with the best chance — after the Tar Heels — of cutting down the nets in Glendale, Ariz.
The Cardinals are defined, as always, by their smothering defense. Head coach Rick Pitino has his team attacking opposing teams up and down the court, and boasts the second-best opponent field goal percentage (39.5 percent) in the conference.
The key player for Louisville is Donovan Mitchell, named to the All-ACC team this season after leading the Cardinals in scoring at 15.9 points per game. His two-way impact is one of the best in the nation, and his growth as a player could continue over the next few weeks.
The Cardinals are on hold until Friday, when they will face the winner of the Clemson-Duke game. If they string together a few wins, they solidify their shot at a favorable 2-seed on Sunday. If they take home a tournament title, the chance at a one-seed is present.
Mar 4, 2017; Chapel Hill, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Roy Williams cuts down the net after winning the ACC regular season championship. The Tar Heels defeated the Blue Devils 90-83 at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Is North Carolina The Best Team In The Nation?
The North Carolina Tar Heels have a resume of champions, from marquee wins — 10 top-50 wins — to an ironclad showing in advanced metrics (fourth in RPI). This team is deep and playing better than a year ago, when they came within a last-second shot of cutting down the nets.
The Kansas Jayhawks are currently first in the AP Top 25, with Carolina hanging back at sixth. Of the top-eight teams, they are the only ones with six losses. But none of the teams ahead of North Carolina played in the ACC, a conference that could send as many as 11 teams to the tournament.
If the Tar Heels and All-American Justin Jackson reel off a few victories and defend their ACC tournament crown, they will be locked into a No. 1 seed in the tournament come Sunday. It is expected they will be placed in the South region and play the regional final in Memphis.
The trick will be if an ACC tournament title, along with their outright regular-season title, will be enough to propel them to the top of the S-Curve.
The one blemish on their season is a sub-100 loss to Georgia Tech, but after Josh Pastner was awarded ACC Coach of the Year it looks less damaging, especially in the context of a greater narrative.
The North Carolina Tar Heels may be the best team in the country, whether or not they are awarded that title by the selection committee.
If they win the ACC tournament this week, their praises will be sung all the more as they enter the tournament next week set on one more win than last season.
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