5 NBA things to watch for on Christmas Day
The NBA’s annual Christmas Day slate is full of interesting storylines and not just the ones involving the league’s two best teams. Here are five things — one from each game — to watch for on December 25.
5. Knicks vs. Celtics
At one point this year, the New York Knicks were third in the Eastern Conference. They have faded slightly but remain in the middle of the playoff race. On that level, they seem to be improved over past years.
Deeper numbers, however, don’t paint a good picture of the Knicks. They are in the bottom third of in terms of net rating and have played a fairly easy schedule to date. And in the cases where they’ve faced good teams — the Cavs twice, the Warriors — they’ve looked completely out of their depth.
Christmas offer the Knicks a chance to prove themselves as something more, or at least as a team with the potential to get better. The Celtics are legitimately a good team — top-10 in net rating, currently the third team behind Toronto and Cleveland, and they feature a lot of really, really good players that can push New York. Isaiah Thomas is probably going to dominate Derrick Rose. Jae Crowder can work to take Carmelo Anthony out of the game. Al Horford is maybe a bit smaller than Kristaps Porzingis, but he’s smart and skilled enough to make New York’s best player struggle in what could be a showcase performance.
A Knicks win here — particularly one with substance, where it feels like they actually just took it to the Celtics — would perhaps open New York up to the possibility of becoming something more than an average or below average East team that’s surprisingly in the playoffs. But if it goes bad — and it feels like it might — it probably will confirm what we already seem to know.
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4. Cavaliers vs. Warriors
Christmas’ marquee game is a Finals rematch and perhaps a preview of the Finals to come. Because of the players involved — LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Draymond Green, Kevin Love, Klay Thompson — there are an infinite number of storylines to pull at and dissect.
Of all the stars in this game, Love stands out because it’s hard to know exactly how he fits in. The other players on the list have largely clear roles — LeBron is LeBron, Kyrie is there to create chaos on offense, Thompson is there to get buckets, etc. — and Love just doesn’t. Despite ‘The Stop’, he had a forgettable Finals. He was benched for Richard Jefferson at one point, suffered a head injury, and really only redeemed himself in that penultimate moment.
Fast forward to now and Love is having the type of season everyone expected him to have after becoming a Cav. The numbers he’s posting this year — 22.3 points and 10.7 rebounds per game with a career best true shooting percentage of 61.9 on the highest usage rate of his time in Cleveland — are the closest you’ll get to Minnesota Love when he’s playing with two ball dominant stars.
And yet, the concerns still remain. When they go small, the Warriors will likely hunt him down in the pick-and-roll and who in the heck is he going to guard? It’s not hard to see the Cavs having to go small or lean on Tristan Thompson more.
But maybe Love can impact the game in a more positive way. He and Thompson could help the Cavs dominate the boards — and then slow the pace — but he also could make the Warriors pay for using traditional centers. When JaVale McGee and Zaza Pachulia are on the floor, Love at the five could draw them way out of the paint and create space inside for LeBron and Kyrie to attack in. This year, Love as also looked good creating for himself and neither of the Warriors’ centers are really capable of totally handling him.
This season, Love has reminded everyone how good he is and what kind of impact he can make. Can he do it against the the one opponent that really matters?
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3. Bulls vs. Spurs
With how good the Spurs have been this year, there’s still some oddness to their post-Tim Duncan existence. Most notably, there’s the issue that they’ve been better defensively with Kawhi Leonard off the floor. CBS’ Matt Moore has best explained this phenomenon by arguing that maybe Leonard is too good at defense (and his teammates not so good) that whoever he guards basically gets ignored on offense. Teams, for the most part, aren’t even trying to go at him.
On Christmas Day, we might get a chance to see what San Antonio’s counter to this strategy is. A few weeks back, the Bulls beat the Spurs in a game where Jimmy Butler — their best player and primary creator — only shot 4-14 from the field. By ignoring Leonard — and doing things like posting Robin Lopez and letting Dwyane Wade go iso instead — the Bulls took Kawhi out of the game. If they have a counter, this might be the game we see it in. It’s also still early enough for Gregg Popovich to experiment and find a way to stop teams from removing Leonard’s big advantage.
My suggestion: put Danny Green on Butler for stretches, put Leonard on Wade and let him roam more than he would/could if he was stuck to Butler. You’d have to switch back if Butler gets going — and he’s having a really, really good season so far — but it’s worth going for it. The Spurs did do this in the first meeting with mixed results, but it’s certainly better than letting Kawhi stay isolated entirely.
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2. Wolves vs. Thunder
For many, the Timberwolves have been a disappointment. There’s still a ways to go, but it’s hard to see them making a push towards this playoffs in Tom Thibodeau’s first season. In the best case scenario, the rest of the season has to be about letting Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine develop in hopes making the leap next year.
Christmas Day, however, represents a one-day mulligan of sorts. For them, Christmas Day is the biggest stage of the year and while this isn’t the biggest game of the day, it’s a big day for NBA action with a chance to make an impression.
In some ways, the Thunder are the perfect team to do it against. They aren’t world beaters, but have a brand because they have Russell Westbrook playing so hard and seemingly posting a triple-double every night. The Thunder also feature players who can push the Wolves’ youngsters. Steven Adams is really, really good opposite Towns. Andrew Wiggins doesn’t direct cross match, but at times, he should defend Westbrook when Ricky Rubio is off the floor. Even LaVine figures to get pushed if Victor Oladipo can play and even if he has to be defend Westbrook at times, there are moments where he’ll be challenged.
If you’re the Wolves, that’s really what you’re after. You want to grow under Thibodeau and you want to improve on what hasn’t worked this year — which feels like everything even though it’s not. If you can showcase your full potential on the biggest stage, that’s all you can really ask for.
Also: Russell freaking Westbrook is playing in this game, so watch it.
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
1. Clippers vs. Lakers
The Clippers, in what feels like a severe case of “we’ve been here before”, are dealing with a Blake Griffin injury. He’ll be out four to six weeks this time after having arthroscopic knee surgery, meaning he’ll miss the Los Angeles showdown on Christmas.
While Griffin is out, the Clippers should have a simple objective: keep things running smoothly. It’d be unfair to expect them to be as good as they are at full strength without Griffin, but asking them to hold seems reasonable. In the past — namely last year — Doc Rivers adjusted by running everything around the very, very good Chris Paul/DeAndre Jordan pick-and-roll combo. Last year, while Griffin was out, Jordan shot 80 percent on attempts that came off a Paul pass per NBA.com. During that span, the Clippers also had the league’s sixth best offense — a pretty impressive feat considering who was out.
This isn’t to say that there won’t be issues, because there will be. Griffin is Jordan’s second most frequent set-up man this year and there isn’t anyone really built to step into that void directly. But the Clippers can make this work. Paul has been close/at ‘Point God’ levels for much of the season and, aside from a few bad stretches, the Clippers have been pretty good this year. While Griffin out, there objective is simple: beat the teams you’re supposed to, stave off teams like the Jazz and maybe catch the Rockets. The race for 3-7 in the West is somewhat surprisingly tight and a bad run without Griffin could send Los Angeles down the standings, forcing them to scramble as the playoffs loom.
The Lakers are, frankly, a team the Clippers should beat. Weird losses happen, but the Clippers should really have advantages in most areas of the matchup. Under Luke Walton, these Lakers are fun and better, but they aren’t good. On Christmas, they are there to help us find out what life without Griffin will be like for the Clippers.
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