An early look at the Miami Heat's NBA draft needs and targets
Here’s an early look at the 2017 NBA Draft, and who the Miami Heat could look to target early in the first round.
We all know how this offseason went for the Miami Heat. Dwyane Wade left. Chris Bosh’s blood clots came back. And Pat Riley was forced to scramble to fill the roster with second- and third-tier options.
As if that wasn’t enough, once Miami’s season actually started, the terrible injury luck began. The Heat have yet to have their full roster available for a game. At first it was Josh Richardson and Wayne Ellington missing time with different ailments. Now it’s Dion Waiters and Justise Winslow.
So, it can’t come as a shock that the team is struggling. Currently, the Miami Heat are 5-12 (2-7 at home) and are about to begin a three-game road trip while missing two key players. It is improbable that they finish that road trip better than 1-2.
While it is too early to give up on the season, it’s also time to be realistic. This team is more likely headed towards a lottery pick than a playoff spot. And that’s alright. Tanking may be the best course of action.
Today, we take a look at some of the Heat’s biggest needs, and who they could select to fill those needs in the upcoming NBA Draft.
Oct 26, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA;Miami Heat forward Luke Babbitt (5) passes the ball to guard Goran Dragic (7) against the Orlando Magic during the second half at Amway Center. Miami Heat defeated the Orlando Magic 108-96. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Team Needs
It’s clear what the team’s biggest need is. Luke Babbitt and Derrick Williams have no business starting at power forward for a team trying to win games. Whether Miami actually wants to win games this season is up for debate, but one thing is not: neither of those guys are the future starting power forward.
In eight games as a starter, Babbitt averaged six points, while shooting 33 percent from the floor, and 32 percent from three. Williams, meanwhile, has started nine games for the Heat. He’s averaged seven points and two rebounds, on 37 percent shooting, and a paltry 17 percent from deep.
Here’s an even closer look. Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), is a metric that measures how much better a player is than a “replacement-level” player. A replacement-level player is the equivalent of a D-League call-up. Essentially, if a player is in the negatives, he’s “worse” than replacement-level.
Using this barometer, Miami’s two worst players this season have been Williams and Babbitt. Both currently sit at -0.1 VORP. Enough said.
Power forward isn’t the only position in which the team needs help. Justise Winslow is currently the only true small forward on the roster. Rodney McGruder has filled in admirably, but due to his size, he’s best suited to play shooting guard.
Before getting hurt, Winslow wasn’t exactly lighting it up either. His true-shooting percentage, which is a measure of efficiency that takes into account two-point and three-point field goals, plus free-throws, is 38.4. That’s the 45th lowest percentage in the NBA, behind players like Metta World Peace and Chris “Birdman” Anderson. His wrist injury could have something to do with his struggles, but regardless, the start of his sophomore year has been disappointing.
So we’re all in agreement, power forward and small forward are Miami’s two biggest needs. First, let’s take a closer look at the power forwards available in this year’s draft.
Nov 25, 2016; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Florida State Seminoles forward Jonathan Isaac (1) drives to the basket as Illinois Fighting Illini guard Tracy Abrams (13) defends during the second half of the consolation game of the NIT Season Tip-Off at Barclays Center. Florida State won, 72-61. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Power Forward
This is by far Miami’s biggest hole on the roster. So naturally, that’s the one spot in which this draft class is not deep.
For our purposes, we’re going to use DraftExpress. Every year, they are the most accurate predictor of who is going where come June.
Only three power forwards warrant a lottery selection in 2017, according to their early mock-up. And one of them, despite being one of the most talented prospects in the country, has major question marks.
Harry Giles (Duke) was the second best player coming out of high school. He has a elite size for a four, is long, explosive, and an aggressive scorer. However, he has yet to play a single minute for the Blue Devils due to an offseason knee procedure. It was only supposed to keep him out six weeks, but there has been growing speculation that he may sit out his freshman year and go straight to the draft.
And it gets worse. Giles has already torn the ACL in each knee, his left one as a sophomore in high school, and then his right one his senior year. Despite his immense talent, would Miami want to select a player who has already had that many health issues? Especially after what happened to Chris Bosh? Probably not.
A player who the Heat could take a look at instead is Lauri Markkanen, who plays for the Arizona Wildcats. The 7-footer is from Finland, but is adjusting to the college game quite nicely. He currently leads the Wildcats in scoring at 18 points per game to go along with eight rebounds.
What really jumps out is his efficiency scoring the basketball: he’s shooting 51 percent from the field, 39 percent from three, and 90 percent from the foul line. His jumper is elite by anyone’s standards, not just for a big man. Despite not being a great athlete, and lacking the length of other power fowards, Markkanen would a nice addition to the Heat. He could fill the role as the pick-and-pop big man that many wanted Bosh to be for Goran Dragic.
Now let’s check out a couple of the small forwards the Heat could target come June.
Nov 25, 2016; Lawrence, KS, USA; Kansas Jayhawks guard Josh Jackson (11) dribbles the ball as North Carolina-Asheville Bulldogs guard Kevin Vannatta (10) defends during the second half at Allen Fieldhouse. Kansas won 95-57. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Small Forward
According to the 247Sports composite rankings, the consensus number one player in the 2016 high school class was Josh Jackson. He currently plays for the Kansas Jayhawks.
Jackson is almost 20, which is a little old for a freshman, but he’s got prototypical size (6-foot-8), and is an explosive player. I mean just check this out:
Kansas freshman Josh Jackson can DUNK ????https://t.co/OA0IcPKra3
— NBA Be Like (@NBABeLike) November 22, 2016
He’s also a good playmaker. Kansas runs him as the pick-and-roll ball-handler at times, and the early returns are positive. He enjoys setting up his teammates for easy baskets. He can pass, he can dunk, he can dribble, so what can’t Josh Jackson do?
Well, his one major knock will give Heat fans pause. He really struggles to shoot the basketball. Read this, from DraftExpress:
Jackson’s jump shot is still a major work in progress, however – 28.6% from 3 (42 attempts) and 55.2% from the free throw line (58 attempts). As has been the case in the past, he’s much more comfortable off the dribble than off the catch, and will regularly turn down open looks for tough contested pull-ups. While he gets solid rotation and has some natural touch, there’s unnecessary motion in Jackson’s ‘windup’, and it will be interesting to see how he can progress as a shooter at Kansas, as that will be the key to unlocking his NBA potential.
Let’s say the Heat do take Josh Jackson. That would mean sliding Justise Winslow to the power forward slot, with Hassan Whiteside anchoring as the center. It’s impossible to start three non-shooters in today’s NBA. Just can’t do it. So unless Miami trades Whiteside for a center who spaces the floor, or Winslow dramatically improves his shooting once he returns from injury, it’s tough to see Riley taking another player who can’t shoot.
A guy Miami could look at instead is freshman Jonathon Issac from Florida State. He’s been compared to Kevin Durant because he’s got guard-like skills in a big man’s body. Issac is 6-foot-11, but handles the basketball extremely well. Just look at this Euro-Step from the three-point line:
So far, seven games into his career, he’s scoring 15 points per game. He’s also bringing down seven rebounds to go along with a block, and a steal. He’s proven to have range on his jumper too, shooting 44 percent from three.
Issac does have to get stronger however. His best position in the NBA might be small-ball power forward, so he needs more muscle for his body to handle going up against bigger guys. That’s not just a worry on defense, but on offense too. Issac has the quickness to blow past a lot of power forwards in the NBA, but does he have the strength to finish through contact?
Regardless, he would fit in nicely with the Heat. He’s a guy with the versatility to play small forward or power forward, and he can shoot, meaning you can play him next to Winslow. For Miami’s ailing offense, Issac could be a game-changer.
November 17, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; UCLA Bruins guard Lonzo Ball (2) moves to the basket against San Diego Toreros guard Tyler Williams (1) and forward Frank Ryder (30) during the second half at Pauley Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Point Guard
Let’s look at this logically. Miami may not need a point guard right now, seeing as Goran Dragic is one of their two best players. However, Pat Riley did mention he was interested in finding another first round pick. Hassan Whiteside just signed a monster deal, and it’s unlikely any other player on the roster would yield a first rounder in return if traded. So Dragic could possibly be the odd man out.
Coincidentally, this year’s class is absolutely stacked with point guards. In the current DraftExpress mock draft, six of them are taken in the lottery, including the potential number one overall pick, Markelle Fultz.
Fultz plays for the Washington Huskies, and is currently the most talked about player in college basketball. He’s 6-foot-4, has an absurd 6-foot-9 wingspan, and can score in a multitude of ways. Fultz is averaging 23 points, five rebounds, six assists, two steals, and over a block per game. He can shoot from anywhere, whether it be off the dribble, or spotting up for an open jumper. He likes to run in transition, and can throw it down when he’s out on the open floor:
If you watch the rest of the highlights, imagine Fultz as Boston Celtics point guard Isaiah Thomas. Both are crafty scorers and ball-handlers, but Fultz has elite size and athleticism to go along with his ingenuity as a player. That’s a special mix of qualities for one guy to possess. The Heat would need to seriously embrace tanking if they want the chance to draft him. I’m all for it, he’s that good.
Lonzo Ball (UCLA) is another unique player in this draft class. Like Fultz, he also has excellent size for a point guard at 6-foot-6. However, he is more of a playmaker. Ball is one of the best passers in college basketball, and averages nine assists per game. UCLA ranks in the top five in multiple offensive categories, and a lot of that is thanks to their star freshman point guard.
Don’t get me wrong though, he’s not just a passer. The guy can score too. He’s averaging 16 points a game and making 57 percent of his field goal attempts. And despite worries about his three-point jumper (he has a weird release on his shot), Ball is making almost three of them per game, and shooting at a 49 percent clip from deep. He can also do this to you:
Lonzo Ball is a baller. ???? https://t.co/zF1PvQYOcQ
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 12, 2016
So just to recap: he’s athletic, a flashy passer, a play-maker, and can score the ball as well. If Dragic does get dealt, Ball would be a great fit with the current roster. His rambunctious playing style would have Heat fans loving him from day one.
We’ll take a deeper look at some of these players, and other ones we didn’t get to mention, in upcoming posts. Keep an eye out for them, especially when you get tired of watching the Heat miss wide open jumpers and point-blank layups. We can’t use “trust the process” without having to pay Joel Embiid, so let’s come up with our own tanking slogan! ‘Till next time, Heat fans.
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