Andre Roberson is Oklahoma City's unlikely X-factor in Game 7
In several ways, the Western Conference Finals has turned into a bizarro world, filled with small-sample-size ridiculousness, the death and rebirth of strategies and lineups that were once so intimidating (and feeble) during the regular season.
For the Oklahoma City Thunder, no player has been a more pleasant surprise than Andre Roberson, the one-trick pony who excels on defense but was treated as a liability through the first two rounds.
A career 27.4 percent shooter from behind the three-point line, the Golden State Warriors have all but completely ignored Roberson whenever he's on the floor. They've let bigs like Draymond Green and Andrew Bogut roam off him and allowed Steph Curry to use the assignment as a pit stop whenever he isn't guarding Russell Westbrook.
But, to his credit, Roberson has made them pay. After sinking only one three per every 48.5 minutes of action during the regular season, Roberson has knocked down one per 21.15 minutes in this series, going 8-of-14 beyond the arc. All of his attempts have been open, per SportVU, and, miraculously, that 57.1 percent mark actually leads the Thunder by a wide margin (Dion Waiters is in second at 41.2 percent).
Andre Roberson is at 36% on 3s (2 3pa/gm) in Playoffs.
— BBALLBREAKDOWN (@bballbreakdown) May 27, 2016
In WCF, he’s at 57.1% on 2.8 attempts per game. #AndreFrickinRoberson
That's good news and bad news, if you're from Oklahoma City. Obviously, it's positive that Roberson has caught fire during the biggest series of his life, and some of the most significant games in Thunder history. But soon enough, Roberson will fall back to Earth, and the Warriors most definitely have the law of averages on their side heading into tonight's Game 7.
But the Thunder doesn't need Roberson to scorch the Earth forever. All they need is for him to make a few shots whenever the ball is swung his way, if for no other reason than Billy Donovan must be convinced to keep Roberson on the floor as much as possible with everything on the line.
"Not in my house" - Andre Roberson #NBARapidReplay #WARRIORSvTHUNDER https://t.co/t3y0x2Lb6M
— NBA (@NBA) May 29, 2016
The Thunder has outscored the Warriors by 6.5 points per 100 possessions with Roberson on the court, and been outscored by 8.4 points per 100 possessions when he's on the bench. These numbers arrive in another small-sample size, but there's no denying Roberson's defensive versatility, and what his length at the rim and on the perimeter has meant in this series.
Oklahoma City won't win or lose Monday night because of Roberson's performance alone, but the 24-year-old has become an increasingly significant variable in a series that's overflowing with random behavior. His minutes will matter tonight, one way or another.
