Best/Worst case scenarios for the Thunder in 2017
Dec 31, 2016; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) reacts after a play against the LA Clippers during the third quarter at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
2016 ended up being one of the most disappointing years in OKC Thunder basketball history. Should we expect better or worse in 2017?
Looking back on 2016 isn’t the best exercise for OKC Thunder fans. The regular season ended with only 55 wins, a severe underachievement for a team with two of the five best players in the NBA. But the playoffs came around and all of Billy Donovan’s experimenting came into fruition.
They handled the Mavericks with ease. Then they upset the Spurs. THEN THEY WERE UP 3-1 ON THE WARRIORS. The Thunder looked like genuine title favorites at that point, but it all fell apart.
OKC lost the series, Kevin Durant left for Golden State. No matter what happened after July 4th, 2016 would be chalked up as a Big Fat Loss.
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Here’s the thing. This new season has made me forget past events as much as possible. I still get sad every time I see KD in a Warriors jersey. Thinking about Games Five-Seven sends shivers down my spine. But unlike this summer, I now have hope after watching this team play their first 34 games of the season.
Just how far could this team progress in 2017? Is there a chance that they crash back to mediocrity before the season is over? I’m not sure. But I have a few ideas…
Worst-case scenarios for 2017
Dec 13, 2016; Portland, OR, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) speaks with referee Matt Boland (18) during the first quarter of the game against the Portland Trail Blazers at Moda Center. Credit: Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports
Russell Westbrook gets injured/traded
This one is easy. Losing Russ would be a travesty for the Thunder in 2017. We detailed earlier why trading the future MVP is the best move for OKC, and it very well could be. But that would be a move for 2020, not 2017.
We’ve seen the numbers when Westbrook is on/off the court. When he is playing, the Thunder have a net rating of 6.2. When he doesn’t, they have a rating of -12.1. Essentially, Oklahoma City is the worse team in the NBA when Russ isn’t playing.
Dec 29, 2016; Memphis, TN, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) dribbles in the first quarter against the Memphis Grizzlies at FedExForum. Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
If the Thunder were to lose Westbrook for any extended period of time the team would fall apart almost instantaneously. Steven Adams isn’t an offensive threat without Westbrook throwing him alley-oops. Victor Oladipo wouldn’t have two or three wide-open threes every game.
Right now, the Thunder are one of the most fun teams to watch in the NBA. That’s because of Russ. Without him the year of 2017 would be much much worse than 2016.
The Thunder trade for Rudy Gay
Rumors have swirled around this possibility for months, and it’s scary. Gay is notorious for being a locker-room pariah; every time he gets traded the team that picks him up gets worse.
A trade for Gay would mean Cameron Payne likely getting shipped out of OKC. Losing the next four years of Payne for a half-season of Gay (who is a free agent this summer) would be in the worst interest of the Thunder. He’s upped his play this season solely for the purpose of getting one last large contract, and the Thunder can’t afford to pay for that.
Related Story: Addressing recent trade rumors
Plus, Gay is not the missing piece for the Thunder to become title contenders. Oklahoma City needs a bona fide star to compete with the Golden State’s and Cleveland’s of the world: Paul George maybe? Whoever it is, please don’t be Rudy Gay.
Jan 16, 2016; Norman, OK, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder general manager Sam Presti watches college basketball between the West Virginia Mountaineers and the Oklahoma Sooners at Lloyd Noble Center. Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
Sam Presti leaves for greener pastures
This one might honestly be worse than the Russ situation. Presti is in a position that he can stay in for the next 30 years. He’s only 39, and GM’s don’t decline like athletes.
Personally I think Presti is one of the top-three GM’s in the league. People forget he is strapped with one of the worse markets in the NBA and an owner who doesn’t want to pay the luxury tax. Essentially Presti has to build team’s through the draft and with trades. And that’s exactly what he’s done.
Related Story: Trust Sam Presti’s process
The Thunder have modeled themselves after the Spurs (where Presti learned the trade under R.C. Buford). Consistency, even with injuries, has been a hallmark in Oklahoma City ever since their first playoff experience.
The fear for me is that a big-market team offers Presti a contract he can’t refuse. Phil Jackson is making $12 million a year; Presti has proven to be a much better team-builder than Jackson. There are so many directions this team could go and Presti has the best idea of what direction to take. Losing him would set the Thunder back exponentially.
Best-case scenarios for 2017
Steven Adams AND Victor Oladipo progress into all-stars
Sep 23, 2016; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Victor Oladipo (5), Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) and Oklahoma City Thunder center Steven Adams (12) pose for portraits during Oklahoma City Thunder media day at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
The beauty of this post is that it stretches into two seasons. Adams and Oladipo are not going to be all-stars this year, but both have shown impressive growth this season. Victor Oladipo began the season trying to impress Thunder fans, but he’s transitioned perfectly into the OKC offense.
But it’s Steven Adams who has the best chance at making the all-star team next year. The Big Kiwi has added a few new elements to his game this season: the flip shot, a spin move and better passing.
Look here for instance.
If this was two years ago Russ wouldn’t have even thought to feed Adams down low. But that’s a testament to the 23-year old’s work ethic. Adams didn’t start playing the game until he was in his teens, so he’s just now adding specialized skills to his game.
If even one of these guys can evolve into an all-star by next season the Thunder could find themselves in the top-five teams in the league once again. This team is so young and so talented, but they need one more weapon to take the pressure off Russ if they truly want to contend. It’s very possible that weapon is already on the roster.
Nov 18, 2016; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Alex Abrines (8) drives to the basket in front of Brooklyn Nets forward Joe Harris (12) during the fourth quarter at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
Alex Abrines adds 20 pounds in the offseason
At 6’6, Alex Abrines is the perfect height for a shooting guard. At 190 pounds, he is at the worst weight for a shooting guard. Abrines is getting pushed around on the defensive end because he simply doesn’t have the strength to keep up with NBA athletes.
But that’s what the offseason is for. Abrines has all the tools to be a successful scorer in this league. He’s filthy from behind the arc (14-28 in his last five games), has a nice passing touch PLUS he’s secretly athletic. But his lack of muscle keeps him from being able to utilize all those skills.
This season Abrines will almost strictly be a three-point weapon. But his game has much more potential than that; I’d say he could be like JJ Reddick if he puts the work in. Remember, Reddick struggled his first couple years in the NBA.
If Abrines does add weight over the offseason he could genuinely be the starting shooting guard the Thunder have been missing. The goal for Oladipo is to move him to the bench and burn teams’ second-units a la James Harden back in the day. This offseason will tell us whether or not Abrines can be the impetus for that move.
Related Story: The origin story of Alex Abrines
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The Thunder don’t make a trade
Now this one is going to be controversial. I’m not really a fan of the Thunder trading anybody for one simple reason: these kids genuinely like each other.
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There aren’t many organizations in the NBA that have the camaraderie of the Thunder. I’m a firm believer that the most important attribute of a successful team is genuine friendship. Players have to want to help each other in order to see the most success on the court.
OKC has the third-youngest rotation in the league. They have control over virtually everyone the next few years, so why not let this chemistry build? Westbrook is the only player truly in his prime, so the Thunder are only going to get better. At 21-13, they sit fifth in the West. In two years it’s not crazy to think this exact roster (minus Anthony Morrow and Nick Collison) could be a top-two team in the West.
The only trade I can get behind is an Andre Roberson deal. The man I affectionately call the Lowkey MVP is so important for the Thunder, but he reportedly wants more money than the Thunder can offer. There’s no sense in losing Andre in free agency for nothing, so adding an extra pick/veteran may be the only smart move for Sam Presti to make.
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