National Basketball Association

Why you should bet on the Bucks to win Game 2 (and the NBA Finals)

Updated Jul. 30, 2021 8:12 a.m. ET

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Watching the opening and initial movement of a sports betting line is one of my favorite things to do. The market always seems to tell a story.

So when the Phoenix Suns (favored by 5.5 points at tip after opening at -6) beat the Milwaukee Bucks by 13 in Game 1 of the 2021 NBA Finals, most people probably expected the point spread to be even bigger in the ensuing game.

Wrong.

Bookmakers opened the market at Phoenix -5.5 for Game 2, and the line was immediately bet down to -5 at most sportsbooks. That’s a true sign of monetary respect for Milwaukee from people who have betting influence, and it hasn't stopped. By now, most of the +5 spreads have disappeared, as the market is mostly painted at Suns -4.5, but FOX Bet still has the Bucks as 5-point underdogs at this moment, with a game scoring total of 220.5.

I stayed far, far away in Game 1 because of all the uncertainty surrounding Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo’s ailing left knee. "The Greek Freak" went from doubtful to cleared in a matter of hours, and bettors and bookmakers were all collectively guessing how the MVP would play. It was an impossible handicap. Giannis was rather rusty – he hadn’t played in a whole week – and the Bucks were out of sync for most of the night as they tried to find their rhythm.

Thing is, it’s probably for the best that Giannis toughed it out and shook the cobwebs off. It’s paramount that he feels comfortable the rest of the way. Besides, Milwaukee loves a good Game 1 dud. They haven’t covered a single series opener in the entire postseason (0-4 against the spread). So it’s not like a single loss is a big deal.

Instead, the Bucks’ mission is simple: Get out of the Valley with a split. And that’s still very attainable.

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Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer will be tasked with making a couple of adjustments here and there, but I would argue his team doesn’t have to change much – perhaps a few defensive changes to make life tougher on Chris Paul, sure. Milwaukee can’t allow another 16-point disparity at the foul line, but I expect that to be corrected, too.

Really, Game 1 was close at the half, then Phoenix couldn’t miss in the third quarter. That was largely the difference. Milwaukee's game plan had them right in this one; the basic blueprint is in place.

We’re seeing some good ol’ fashioned reverse line movement in the betting market, too, which I love to see since I’m clearly on the Bucks. What does that mean? It's fairly straightforward: There are more overall bets being placed on Phoenix, but the line is still moving in favor of Milwaukee. That tells you that bigger (and often smarter) money believes in a Bucks bounceback, and that's good news for us.

If you’re a Bucks believer like I am, in fact, now wouldn’t be a bad time to fire a series bet on Milwaukee at +230 to win it all (so a $10 wager would pay out $33 total). That series price is drastically higher after one basketball game with a rusty Giannis. If the Bucks win Game 2, that price will be slashed down to around +135 or so; all of a sudden, your $10 bet would only pay out $23.50. Always bet the right team at the right price if you think the math adds up.

I will go down on the "Suns aren’t great" ship until they win the championship, and it’s very realistic that you get a much more physical and in-tuned Milwaukee squad Thursday night that wants no part of heading home in an 0-2 hole.

Let’s bet the Bucks +5, and even at +4.5. They’ll hang around in Game 2 and maybe even sneak out a win.

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.