National Basketball Association

Boston Celtics: Banner 18 or First Round Bust

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Jun 19, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) celebrates with Cleveland Cavaliers guard J.R. Smith (5) and Cleveland Cavaliers forward Kevin Love (0) after beating the Golden State Warriors in game seven of the NBA Finals at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

With the unpredictability of sports, there is no telling how the Boston Celtics’ season will end.

Las Vegas predicts that the Boston Celtics will win more than 60 games this year. They probably will, but predicting sports is an impossible task. Just ask any fantasy owner.

When the Washington Nationals, who were already favored to win their division, signed Max Scherzer, Bryce Harper said, “Just give me my ring now.” The Nats didn’t make the playoffs.
LeBron James promised, not one, not two, not three… and it took a couple of years to win even one.

Last year, the Warriors were “maybe the best team ever”. They ended up being the second best team in the Finals, second best to a team that had spent much of the regular season tripping over their own shoelaces.

The unpredictability of sports makes it both exciting and frustrating. Our hearts are broken when our team, who we love, lets us down. We expect them to win and they lose. The exhilaration we feel when our team, which should lose, wins it all is a feeling that will carry us through years of second place finishes.

There are good reasons that sport is unpredictable. Here are a few.

Dec 31, 2014; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Celtics forward Jae Crowder (99), Boston Celtics guard Jameer Nelson (28), Boston Celtics forward Jared Sullinger (7), Boston Celtics center Kelly Olynyk (41) and Boston Celtics guard Marcus Smart (36) all eye a loose ball with Sacramento Kings forward Omri Casspi (18) during the first quarter at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

INJURIES

Last year, as the regular season wound down, the Celtics had hopes of overtaking Toronto for the second best record in the East. They looked really good at third, and well, would have settled for fourth if necessary. Then Jae Crowder, Avery Bradley and Kelly Olynyk were injured. Result? Fifth seed and overmatched by Atlanta.

In 2015, Kevin Love and Olynyk got tangled up and Love was lost for the rest of the playoffs. Cleveland’s hope for that elusive title became, “wait until next year.”
Injuries are unpredictable, but inevitable. Very large men are running and jumping and pushing, all with great intensity. Injuries can happen on any of the hundreds of plays that occur every single game in the NBA. Having a $28 million dollar contract is no guarantee that you will survive the season injury free. In fact, any professional athlete in any sport will say that by the end of the season, everybody hurts.

This Celtics team can withstand injuries. They have more depth than any other NBA team. While all injuries weaken your team, a flexible roster can overcome many injuries. Having a “superstar” is great, but what happens when he crashes into the stanchion behind the basket and is lost for the year? Ask Paul George and the Pacers.

Feb 5, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; The Boston Celtics celebrate after guard Avery Bradley (0) reacts after hitting a three-point shot to end the game and beat the Cleveland Cavaliers at Quicken Loans Arena. The Celtics won 104-103. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

CHEMISTRY

No one can explain exactly what it is, or why it comes about, but it is definitely a feature of team sports. Good chemistry seems to translate into wins and bad chemistry seems to translate into losses.

Last season’s win in Cleveland at the buzzer was because of chemistry. Boston’s best offensive player, Isaiah Thomas, had the ball with seconds left, but he didn’t have a good shot. He knew where Bradley would be, and most importantly, he trusted him. Swish! Celebration! The Celtics’ chemistry is most shown in how they battled back, not only in the Cavaliers game, but all season long. The Celtics did not concede a game just because they were behind by 17 points.

Comebacks are always a team effort. The comebacks begin with Brad Stevens’ calm demeanor. They are fueled by effort, defense, and encouragement from teammates. Confidence is built on past success. These guys seem to genuinely like each other.

Chemistry is not something we want to mess with. Whether or not the Celtics ever had a chance of trading for DeMarcus Cousins, many fans and commentators were against adding him to the team. The aversion wasn’t because he isn’t a huge talent. Anti-Boogie opinion was driven by the perception that he is a cancer in the locker room. He would, it was said, destroy the Celtics’ excellent chemistry.

Chemistry can be fragile and unpredictable. A stupid prank by the rookie DeAngelo Russell created problems in Los Angeles. As Crash Davis told Nuke, “you don’t mess with a winning streak”.

November 20, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Chicago Bulls guard Jimmy Butler (21) passes the basketball against Golden State Warriors guard Klay Thompson (11) during the third quarter at Oracle Arena. The Warriors defeated the Bulls 106-94. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Break-out seasons

Sports Illustrated’s list of the top 100 NBA players for 2014 had Jimmy Butler at 90 and Klay Thompson at 89.
Jimmy Butler was a rotation player one year and a superstar the next year. Crowder was a throw in on a trade one year and a beast the next year. Thomas was a bench player one year and an All-Star the next. Steph Curry was a very good player one year and mega superstar the next.
There are many examples of these break-out seasons. A team “without a real superstar” might actually have a real superstar waiting to step up. We know that there will be emerging talent, new all-stars and new super stars. We just don’t know for sure who they will be or where they play. Will Ben Simmons be Anthony Davis or Anthony Bennett? Unpredictable.

So, could the Celtics win the NBA title? Absolutely. If healthy, they will be one of the top, if not the top defensive team. LeBron and Love are not young anymore, so a series against a young, athletic, fast, deep squad will wear them down. If the Celtics are injury free and believe they are a team of destiny they will be a load to handle. They can compete with the Cavaliers right now. And if Smart, Rozier, Mickey, Olynyk, Bradley or Brown raise their game to all-star level, the Celticss will be in the finals.

Meanwhile, could they get swept in the first round? Sports is unpredictable. I stopped betting on sports years ago because I got tired of throwing away my money. But if offered a proposition, I would take Banner 18 over losing in the first round.