Breaking down the Pistons' most likely starting lineups
Dec 19, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Detroit Pistons forward Stanley Johnson (7) drives to the basket while Chicago Bulls forward Nikola Mirotic (44) defends during the second half of the game at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports
According to Stan Van Gundy, the Detroit Pistons are poised to make a change to the starting lineup. We’ll run through the most likely lineup combinations.
The Detroit Pistons have had a disastrous past couple weeks after Reggie Jackson‘s return to the starting lineup nine games ago. After the team hit their high point of the season thus far with an impressive 3-0 road trip to creep back over the .500 mark at 11-10, beating the Charlotte Hornets, Atlanta Hawks and Boston Celtics, Jackson made his long-awaited return to the lineup.
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The hope was that he could step right in and pick up where Ish Smith and the rest of the startling lineup had left off, but things haven’t gone as anticipated. The starting lineup has been a mess with Jackson, getting outscored by a dismal 116.3 to 96.8 clip per 100 possessions, producing a net rating of -19.5.
That’s not just a bad net rating, it’s the worst rating of any lineup in the NBA that has played over 100 minutes together by a full 8.1 points per 100 possessions. Things aren’t working for this lineup, and after teasing changes to the starting lineup following the Pistons 105-90 loss to the Indiana Pacers on Saturday, Stan Van Gundy promised changes after an ugly 31-point loss to the Chicago Bulls on Monday.
It doesn’t seem likely that Van Gundy would back down from this hard line, and he refused to divulge his plans for the starters at shootaround Wednesday morning, so let’s take a look at the most likely starting lineup combinations that we might see rolled out against the Memphis Grizzlies and down the road.
Dec 16, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Detroit Pistons guard Ish Smith (14) passes the ball as Washington Wizards guard Trey Burke (33) defends during the first half at Verizon Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Reggie Jackson to the bench, Ish Smith starts.
This lineup would be a return to the unit that reached its peak immediately before Reggie Jackson’s return. The five-man group of Smith, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Marcus Morris, Tobias Harris and Andre Drummond were a wrecking crew on the three-game road trip that preceded Jackson’s integration into the starting lineup.
The problem with this is that chemistry issues aside, Reggie Jackson is simply a much better point guard than Smith. He’s a better shooter, better defender, and even if Jackson is still operating on a diminished basis, he’s a more capable scorer.
The only real purpose behind this particular switch would be if Van Gundy wanted to send a message to the team, and Jackson in particular. Putting him on blast in this fashion may have long-lasting ramifications for the Pistons.
This is my least-likely and least-preferred option of all possible changes.
Dec 19, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Detroit Pistons forward Marcus Morris (13) is defended by Chicago Bulls forward Jimmy Butler (21) during the first half of the game at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports
Marcus Morris to the bench, Jon Leuer to power forward, Tobias Harris to small forward.
This five-man unit has had virtually no run this season with just 27 possessions together. It hasn’t stood out in any way, both scoring and allowing 85.2 points per 100 possessions. This would be an offense-heavy option, as Morris is the better defender between himself and Harris and the defense would be downgraded as a result.
However, Jon Leuer has been the Pistons’ most effective offensive player so far this season, and moving him into the front line and Morris to the bench could pay dividends as the offense has simply not clicked for the Pistons most of the season across the board.
Morris would be the offensive focal point off the bench for the Pistons, and they would have a smaller reserve front line than usual with a likely bench mob of Smith, Stanley Johnson, Morris and Aron Baynes and whichever starter Van Gundy chooses to rotate in with them.
This is better than the Smith-for-Jackson swap, but it’s not my preferred option.
Dec 7, 2016; Charlotte, NC, USA; Detroit Pistons forward Tobias Harris (34) pleads with a referee after being called on a foul during the second half of the game against the Charlotte Hornets at the Spectrum Center. Hornets win 87-77. Mandatory Credit: Sam Sharpe-USA TODAY Sports
Tobias Harris to the bench, Jon Leuer to power forward.
This is the best starting lineup in my opinion. With Jackson’s high usage (nearly 30 percent), the Pistons need a player on offense who can function effectively without needing the ball in his hands. That’s Jon Leuer, who has been the most efficient Piston on offense this season, all without being a focal point.
The Pistons do have an issue with there being only one ball and not enough touches to go around for the starting unit. Leuer doesn’t need offense run for him to be effective and get the job done. He’s a defensive upgrade over Tobias Harris, and Harris can be free to be the offensive focal point on bench unit largely bereft of scoring punch.
With this combination, they keep the best point guard on the roster in his rightful position, they get an efficient low-usage scorer into the lineup, they provide scoring to the second unit, and they don’t hurt their ability to bring size off the bench much.
This is the five the Pistons should trot out on Wednesday night against the Memphis Grizzlies.
