National Basketball Association

Bucks, Suns, Warriors, Heat top list of NBA title contenders

Updated Jan. 21, 2022 1:48 p.m. ET

By Ric Bucher
FOX Sports NBA Writer

In most NBA seasons, it is fairly clear by the midpoint which teams have the requisite talent, depth, chemistry and coaching to be considered legitimate contenders to win the championship.

This year is not like most NBA seasons. But I took a shot at it, anyway.

Nearly every team has been disrupted by health and safety protocols requiring teams to quarantine any player testing positive for COVID-19, which has resulted in roughly one-third of the league missing time. Teams have been scrambling for months now simply to field the league’s requisite eight-man squad to start a game.

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A sampling of team executives and scouts were asked one simple question: Whom do you consider a legitimate title contender based on what you’ve seen in the first half of this season? Also discussed were the strengths and weaknesses of the teams identified.

The first group of teams below were unanimous choices. The second group are those identified by two or more executives and scouts but not unanimously. The third are those that made only one person’s list.

CONSENSUS CONTENDERS

Any list of contenders needs to start with Giannis Antetokounmpo and the defending champions. (Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images)

Milwaukee Bucks

"Of course, the Bucks." While the Golden State Warriors (+500), Phoenix Suns (+650) and Brooklyn Nets (+250) all have better odds at FOX Bet to win the 2022 title, every GM and scout used that phrase at some point in presenting the defending champions (+700) as unreservedly having a shot to repeat.

Strengths: Continuity, with every significant player returning except PJ Tucker, whose absence has not been felt, thanks to Bobby Portis’ growth and the addition of Grayson Allen. … Depth, with the additions of Allen, Rodney Hood, George Hill and Wes Matthews. … The continued maturation of Giannis Antetokounmpo. "He’s passing the ball better than I’ve ever seen him," one Eastern Conference GM said. "He’s making unselfish plays. That’s what happens when you have a comfort level with who you are. He used to force plays. Now he’s genuinely happy for his teammates and understands he needs them as much as they need him." … Opportunity on the buyout market to add yet another piece or two. The market doesn’t look robust, but Goran Dragic, Thaddeus Young and Robert Covington have all been rumored as buyout candidates and might be willing to finish the season in Milwaukee for the chance to play a role, even a minor one, in winning a ring.

Weaknesses: Size, with center Brook Lopez having missed all but one game after undergoing back surgery and Portis the only other listed center. The Bucks are optimistic Lopez will return, but at age 35, how effective will he be? Lopez’s defense was vastly underrated last year, and his floor-spacing 3s are critical to create room for Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday, in particular, to attack the rim. … Perimeter shooting, with Khris Middleton’s streakiness as the go-to scorer a lingering concern. "When Middleton is on, they are really, really tough to beat," the Eastern Conference GM said. Translation: He isn't always "on."

Ric's take: Milwaukee has been my pick to come out of the East (and repeat as champion) since the start of the season, and that belief has only been strengthened by how Portis and Antetokounmpo, in particular, have played, along with their ability to stay under the radar and controversy-free. Defending champions usually wear a huge target and have to battle not only getting every team’s best shot on a nightly basis but also constant conjecture and criticism about whether they’re living up to their championship pedigree. The Bucks clearly have tried to coast past a few inferior opponents and paid the price, but every time they’ve felt the need to make a statement — against the Warriors or Nets, for example — they've responded.

If Chris Paul can stay healthy for a long playoff run, the Suns could end up back in the Finals. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)

Phoenix Suns

Several of those surveyed did not have the Suns in this category at the start of the season, but they do now. "I thought there would be a drop-off, but they deserve to be in the conversation," one Eastern Conference scout said. Rather than rest on the laurels of making the playoffs for the first time in more than a decade and the Finals for the first time since 1993, the Suns have performed as if they have unfinished business after losing to the Bucks in six games.

Strengths: Continuity, with Torrey Craig the only significant contributor not returning from last season. … Balance, as the only team in the league among the top five in both offensive (fifth) and defensive (second) rating. … Depth, with six of their top seven players averaging double-digit points and Jae Crowder right there at 9.3.

Weaknesses: Only one, really: the indispensability of 36-year-old point guard Chris Paul, who will turn 37 in May. He has not missed a game so far this season, but his inability to complete a deep playoff run healthy will remain a constant concern. The Suns are another team, though, that bought-out players might find attractive.

Ric's take: The Suns were my preseason pick to come out of the West, but that was before a) the Warriors proved to be far better than I expected and b) Devin Booker demonstrated that he hasn’t learned anything from his steady decline in the Suns’ playoff run last season. I’ve seen the same questionable shot selection and emotional swings that undercut his brilliant shot-making ability in each successive series last season. He’s too vital to the team's success to be a wild card.

Steph Curry instills a level of confidence in his teammates that makes the Warriors extremely tough to beat. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

Golden State Warriors

Underlying all the recognition of the Warriors’ return to title-contending status is an appreciation for how they play the game — an unselfish, highly intelligent, entertaining brand of basketball that every GM and scout clearly wishes their team embodied. "They have something that none of us really do: team chemistry at a really high level," the Eastern Conference GM said, noting that the Suns are the next-best in that department.

Strengths: Start with a style of play predicated on player and ball movement that is unique in today’s dribble-drive-centric league; add a combination of veterans hungry to win another ring and a host of young players hungry to win their first. Throw in a mindset that anything less than a championship is a failure.

Weaknesses: Playoff experience, with Andrew Wiggins having very little and Jordan Poole, Damion Lee, Juan Toscano Anderson, Jonathan Kuminga and Gary Payton II having none. … Size, with 6-foot-9, 220-pound Kevon Looney as the starting center and uncertainty about when or even if 7-footer James Wiseman will be back from knee surgery. "I don’t think they can win a championship with Kevon Looney as their center and no other big back there," the Eastern Conference scout said.

Ric's take: The confidence that Steph Curry instills in teammates, young and old — that he believes in them and that no matter the situation, they can prevail if they stick together — is unrivaled in the league today. That kind of faith can make a team far better than it might appear on paper. The big question is health, with a variety of essential players already dealing with nagging injuries, including Curry, Andre Iguodala and Draymond Green. None of the three has a natural physical advantage in size or strength to allow him to be effective if his mobility is compromised. This team is not winning a title if any one of the three isn’t at his best.

Kyle Lowry and Jimmy Butler have teamed up to lead Miami to the second-best record in the East. (Photo by Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images)

Miami Heat

Nearly every executive or scout paused before including Miami on their list. Call it begrudging respect for how the Heat have managed to post the East’s second-best record (29-16) with Kyle Lowry missing a half-dozen games, Jimmy Butler missing 18 and Bam Adebayo out for a whopping 25. You can decide on which side of the ball they should’ve felt the absence of those three most, but the fact is the Heat still have the third-rated offense and seventh-best defense. "I don’t know how the hell they’re doing it," the second Eastern Conference GM said, "but Miami is really good. I don’t know how you say they don’t have a chance [to win it all] if they have everybody back."

Strengths: Both a coach (Erik Spoelstra) and a point guard (Lowry) with championship pedigrees and one of the best overall leaders in the league in Jimmy Butler. … The best rebounding team in the league, the second-best 3-point-shooting team and one of the strongest complements of one-on-one defenders with Butler, Adebayo, Lowry, Tucker and Markieff Morris.

Weaknesses: Rim protection — they’re last in blocked shots, though Adebayo is usually more effective than he has been this season, and that could be a matter of rust with all the time he has missed. … A scarcity of bona fide two-way players, leaving the Heat vulnerable at one end or the other against the top teams.

Ric's take: While I admire the Heat's attention to detail and the toughness required simply to make the roster, they have a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde aspect about them. As noted above, they can put a suffocating five-man unit on the floor — but one that also wouldn’t be particularly difficult to stop from scoring. Or they can put an array of long-range snipers and midrange shooters on the floor who would be hard-pressed to keep the other team from scoring. I’m also not sold that they have enough prime-time players to make their regular-season success translate to the postseason. The addition of Lowry helps, but there’s a reason Butler had to carry such a heavy load in the Bubble: No one else was able to step up when it mattered most.

POPULAR BUT NOT UNANIMOUS PICKS

James Harden, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant haven't played together enough for the Nets to find a rhythm with their three stars. (Photo by Jeff Haynes/NBAE via Getty Images)

Brooklyn Nets

Five days ago, the Nets might’ve been a consensus pick, but Kevin Durant spraining a knee ligament and early returns on Kyrie Irving’s impact as a part-time player have created reservations about whether the Nets will ever have all three of their stars — Durant, Irving and James Harden — in synch this season. So far, the Nets have been on a win-one, lose-one metronome since Irving’s return, whether he’s available or not. "It’s going to be hard to ever get in a rhythm," the Eastern Conference scout said.

Strengths: Playoff games consistently come down to final possessions, and the Nets have three players capable of knocking down a game-winning shot. … They’re also the best free-throw-shooting team in the league, another element that looms large in the postseason. … Before his injury, Durant was playing at an MVP level and appeared unstoppable as a shot-maker. … The Nets are the league’s best team at defending 3s, holding teams to 32% shooting beyond the arc.

Weaknesses: Absence of an effective two-way center, with a rotation of Lamarcus Aldridge, Blake Griffin, Paul Millsap and Nic Claxton … Heavily star-dependent, with Harden and Durant among the league’s top five in average minutes per game.

Ric's take: As dangerous as I consider them at full strength, the Nets presumably will have to go through Milwaukee to win the East. I don’t see a defender on the roster that Giannis Antetokounmpo isn’t either going to toy with or demand double-teams against, and, as was noted earlier, his passing has gone next-level. Could Brooklyn wind up in the conference finals? Yes, but that’s one step short of being able to contend for a title.

Donovan Mitchell has the Jazz's offense humming in the regular season, but can he carry the team come playoff time? (Photo by Chris Elise/NBAE via Getty Images)

Utah Jazz

It’s difficult to dismiss the league’s No. 1 offense, coupled with a top-10 defense anchored by a three-time Defensive Player of the Year in Rudy Gobert, but one Eastern Conference scout was willing to do it. "They don’t have depth, and I don’t know how they get it," he said. "I don’t see anybody they have to trade that brings back multiple contributors."

Strengths: Three starters — Mike Conley, Royce O’Neale and Bojan Bogdanovic — who shoot 39% or better from 3-point range. … A proven postseason scorer in Donovan Mitchell, who has averaged 32-plus points in his past two playoff runs … Finally, the Jazz are second only to Miami as an overall rebounding team.

Weaknesses: Athletic perimeter defenders, leaving them vulnerable to wings who can attack off the dribble … Limited playmakers and a heavy dependence on making 3s, reflected by the fact that they are the top scoring team but 25th in assists … Mitchell’s shot selection, with him being a 33% 3-point shooter but still taking nearly 10 per game.

Ric's take: It all comes down to this: I don’t see Mitchell being good enough to lead a team to a title. He isn't enough of a playmaker or midrange shot-maker to be the scoring catalyst of a championship team, yet that’s the role he has been unreservedly given with the Jazz, in part, I suspect, to keep him happy in Salt Lake City.

Yes, the Lakers are struggling mightily, but it still might be too early to count out LeBron James. (Photo by Chris Elise/NBAE via Getty Images)

Los Angeles Lakers

Believe it or not, despite their losing record and rumors of their coach on the brink of being fired, the power of, or respect for, LeBron James had several executives and scouts refusing to completely rule out the Lakers. "They’re a mess, but I just can’t give up on that team yet," a second Eastern Conference scout said. The first Eastern Conference GM agreed. "You can’t count out any team with LeBron James," he said. "They have enough stars. He can manipulate a game. We all know how playoff games are reffed. They may not be as strong as they once were, but I’m certainly not counting them out."

Strengths: James is scoring as well as he has in a decade, and he’s doing it largely from mid- to long-range, with nearly half of his shots this season coming from beyond 16 feet. … The age that has the team collectively gasping for air and looking slow during the regular season becomes an asset in the pressure-cooker atmosphere of the playoffs, where LeBron, Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony and Dwight Howard have as much experience as anyone.

Weaknesses: A roster full of subpar defenders, including, at this stage of his career, LeBron. … Fifth in turnovers and 12th in assists is never a good ratio. … Did we mention coach Frank Vogel could be fired any day now, with a sure-fire upgrade nowhere to be seen?

Ric's take: The reluctance to count out LeBron is reminiscent of the hesitance to stick a fork in the San Antonio Spurs because of their long and relentless run of postseason success — until enough of their 50- and 60-win seasons resulted in playoff appearances that ended well before the Finals. I think we’re at the same stage with James. His run between Miami and Cleveland resulted in three championships and eight Finals appearances in a row. But the past three years? One title, one first-round playoff exit, one trip to the lottery. The change in fortune is not a mirage, and there’s nothing about this season that hints at a return to the glory days.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

Philadelphia 76ers: The excellence of Joel Embiid and the lingering possibility that they could trade Ben Simmons for an impact player leave the door open for at least one executive. "I don’t know what happens with Philly, but they’re really good because Joel has just been so dominant," an Eastern Conference GM said.

Denver Nuggets: Similar to the 76ers, the continued dominance of Nikola Jokic and the possibility of Jamal Murray’s return to provide a one-two punch have one scout leaving a light on for the Nuggets. "I just can’t look away from Denver," an Eastern Conference scout said. "They’re only going to advance if Jamal comes back. Otherwise, they win a first-round series, and that’s it."

Ric Bucher is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. He previously wrote for Bleacher Report, ESPN The Magazine and The Washington Post and has written two books, "Rebound," the story of NBA forward Brian Grant’s battle with young onset Parkinson’s, and "Yao: A Life In Two Worlds," the story of NBA center Yao Ming. He also has a daily podcast, "On The Ball with Ric Bucher." Follow him on Twitter @RicBucher.