Charlotte Hornets: 5 options for pick No. 11 in 2017 NBA Draft
Apr 3, 2017; Phoenix, AZ, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Justin Jackson (44) works around Gonzaga Bulldogs guard Silas Melson (0) during the second half in the championship game of the 2017 NCAA Men's Final Four at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
The Charlotte Hornets have the 11th overall pick in the first round of the 2017 NBA Draft. What players should they consider taking with that pick?
Contrary to popular belief, the Charlotte Hornets and the rest of the NBA will not cease to operate next season due to the Golden State Warriors' seemingly unstoppable dominance. That means there will be yet another NBA Draft on June 22.
The draft represents hope for many teams. It represents a fresh start. If you own a lottery pick, the draft offers you a chance to rebuild your franchise with a young and hopefully talented prospect. Draft night can have an impact on your favorite team's outlook for years to come.
The Charlotte Hornets won't be looking to draft a franchise-altering superstar with the No. 11 pick, but they will be looking to add a some youth to their rotation. There are several different directions in which they could choose to go with this pick.
Will they focus on upside and take a player that some might consider a "project"? Will they target an area of need, such as outside shooting, and take a player that is a bit more reliable and ready to contribute next season?
Given the depth of this draft, they could choose either path.
Charlotte has had some recent hits and misses in the first round of their last several drafts. In the last six years they drafted an All-Star in Kemba Walker, role players like Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Cody Zeller and Frank Kaminsky, and a trade chip in Noah Vonleh.
Their salary cap situation will make it difficult for them to acquire upgrades for their roster through free agency. They'll have to successfully navigate the draft and the trade market to improve upon their 36-46 record from 2016-17.
What will type of player will they select this time? In no particular order, let's take a look at few options that might make sense.
Apr 1, 2017; Glendale, AZ, USA; Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Zach Collins (32) reacts during the second half against the South Carolina Gamecocks in the semifinals of the 2017 NCAA Men's Final Four at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
5. Zach Collins, C, Gonzaga
I've mentioned the possibility of Charlotte taking Collins before, but he's been linked to them so many times it'd be foolish not to mention him again. Collins is a seven-foot center that spent his only collegiate season at Gonzaga.
Collins helped lead the Zags to the national championship game, where they fell to North Carolina. Collins wasn't a star at Gonzaga, but he showed flashes of brilliance thanks to a versatile array of skills. He averaged 10 points and 5.9 rebounds per game on 65.2 percent shooting. He also shot 10-for-21 from three-point range.
Scouts love Collins because of his advanced skill and his upside. He's an effective scorer in the post and when facing up. He brings the type of versatile skill-set modern centers need to survive in today's NBA.
Collins will be especially dangerous if he becomes an elite rim protector. He averaged 1.8 blocks per game last season in just 17.2 minutes a night. He has good defensive instincts, especially around the rim.
Still, he's not perfect. Collins has issues with fouling. He averaged 2.7 fouls per game last season, which is part of the reason he played so few minutes. Collins was arguably Gonzaga's most talented player, but that foul trouble kept him from reaching his full potential.
The upside is still intriguing. If Collins develops into a three-point shooting, rim-protecting machine, then he's a perennial All-Star. In that scenario, he's the center that every NBA team dreams about finding.
That scenario may never happen. Regardless, Collins doesn't have the low floor that many high-upside prospects do. The worst-case scenario is likely that Collins is a reliable rotation big that can score down low and knock down shots (think a better version of Mike Muscala). His foul problems won't kill you if he's playing 20 minutes per night off the bench.
Collins provides a nice mix of reliability and upside. He would be a steal if the Hornets selected him with the No. 11 pick, but their current logjam down low could prevent them from doing so,
Mar 19, 2017; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Louisville Cardinals guard Donovan Mitchell (45) is defended by Michigan Wolverines guard Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (12) during the second half in the second round of the 2017 NCAA Tournament at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
4. Donovan Mitchell, PG/SG, Louisville
Is Donovan Mitchell a point guard? Is he a shooting guard? I'm not sure there's a consensus just yet. He's only 6'3″, but his skills suggest he's more of a "3-and-D" guy rather than a point guard. His 6'10" wingspan should more than make up for what he lacks in height.
Mitchell played two seasons at Louisville, flourishing last season as their best wing player. Mitchell is an elite defensive player and took on an increased offensive role last season. He averaged 15.4 points, 4.9 rebounds and 2.1 steals per game for the Cardinals in 2016-17.
Can a 6'3″ shooting guard thrive in today's NBA? We'll find out with Mitchell. He'll likely be asked to guard both point guards and shooting guards at the next level, depending on which organization elects to take him and who he's paired with in the backcourt.
Mitchell would pair well with a point guard large enough to guard shooting guards, leaving him to cause trouble for the opposing team's point guard. Of course, the Hornets do not play a big point guard. A backcourt featuring Kemba Walker and Mitchell would be rather small in terms of height.
Still, if Mitchell is as good defensively as he was in college, his height won't matter. Some think that Mitchell's offensive potential is being overlooked. Chris Reichert wrote on that subject a few weeks ago at The Step Back:
"While still a small sample size, Mitchell had 116 possession as the pick-and-roll ball hander last season for Louisville. This provides us with a primer of how he could perform at the next level, given that most offenses are predicated around the pick-and-roll. Not only will the point guard in the NBA utilize the pick-and-roll, but wings and off guards use side pick-and-rolls on a regular basis as well.
Mitchell's jumper is still improving, so his shooting numbers aren't as impressive as one might hope for a lottery-level talent. When working off the dribble from a pick-and-roll scenario (and using the screen), Mitchell shot just 35 percent (14-of-40). He has great balance on his pull up jump shots, the mechanics are solid and his release is high. His main issue — not only on pick-and-roll situations — is his shot selection wandered at times, which created more difficult, and unnecessary, shots.
If Mitchell can be a creator and scorer in the pick-and-roll, he increases his value tremendously. I don't think Mitchell will ever be a team's primary creator, but if can become a secondary creator and a 12-15 points per game scorer that should be considered a success.
The Hornets need a shooting guard so that Nicolas Batum can slide down to small forward. Mitchell would be a great fit in Charlotte, but the question marks about his size and offensive upside may make the Hornets go in another direction.
Mar 19, 2017; Greenville, SC, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Luke Kennard (5) shoots the ball against South Carolina Gamecocks guard Sindarius Thornwell (0) during the first half in the second round of the 2017 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
3. Luke Kennard, SG, Duke
The Hornets definitely need more shooting. They ranked 18th in the NBA last season in terms of three-point shooting efficiency. That has to get better if they're going to climb back into the postseason in 2017-18.
As I've noted, the Hornets don't have the salary cap room to find a shooter through free agency. J.J. Redick would be a great fit back in North Carolina, but that isn't financially possible. The good news is, if they want a Duke Blue Devil that can shoot, one should be available in the NBA Draft.
Luke Kennard skyrocketed up draft boards after a stellar 2016-17 season for Duke. On a roster loaded with pro prospects such as Harry Giles, Grayson Allen, Jayson Tatum and Frank Jackson, Kennard was clearly the best player.
Kennard led the Blue Devils in scoring, averaging 19.5 points per game on 49 percent shooting and 43.8 percent from three-point range. He is a crafty scorer, and can score all over the court, but NBA teams undoubtedly covet his outside shot the most.
Duke's Luke Kennard putting on a shooting clinic in a gym full of NBA GMs and decision makers pic.twitter.com/DuqmdrIBm6
— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) June 3, 2017
His three-point stroke is what stands out, but he's not just a shooter. Here's what The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor wrote about him in March:
"Kennard is one of my favorite prospects in this draft. He's a below-average athlete but makes up for it with his craftiness, feel, and killer mentality.
"The level of improvement he made as a ball handler from his freshman to sophomore seasons unleashed his pick-and-roll playmaking and scoring ability. Even if he isn't quick or athletic enough to become a go-to-scoring presence, the ability to make plays off a screen gives him an additional wrinkle on top of his already-established elite shooting. In a draft with a talent drop-off in the late lottery, I'd gamble on Kennard."
By drafting Kennard, you get an elite shooter, a secondary ball-handler, and a player that can score in a variety of ways. He doesn't have the ceiling of a player like Zach Collins or Lauri Markkanen, but you know what you're getting with Kennard and what you're getting is valuable.
There are some questions about his defense and athleticism, but I think his strengths far outweigh his weaknesses. It's a shooter's league and the Hornets don't have enough shooters. Picking Kennard helps change that.
The latest Draft Express mock draft has the Hornets selecting Kennard. This may not be the pick Hornets fans are hoping for, but it'd be an excellent selection nonetheless.
2. Frank Ntilikina, PG, France
The Hornets already have an All-Star point guard in Kemba Walker. They don't need to draft a point guard. Still, if they're set on taking the best player available, that may be Frank Ntilikina, if he slips out of the top 10.
More from Hoops Habit
Ntilikina will likely be a top-10 pick. Draft Express currently has him going to Dallas Mavericks with the ninth overall pick, but the Hornets would be wise to snatch him up if he falls. Ntilikina is widely considered the best international prospect in this year's draft and it's easy to see why; he just oozes potential.
The Frenchman is only 18 years old and already possesses a great feel for the game. It sounds silly, but "feel" and basketball IQ are huge parts of playing point guard at any level of basketball, especially in the NBA. As a point guard, you can't just worry about yourself. You have to make the right pass, make the right read and successfully integrate your teammates into the flow of the game.
For what it's worth, he averaged 5.2 points and 1.4 assists per game on 48.5 percent shooting from field and 43.1 percent from outside with Strasbourg last season. Stats aren't important with Ntilikina. He's all projection. That's part of what makes him enticing and terrifying at the same time.
The Ringer's NBA Draft Guide (which is an outstanding resource for all draft related matters) provides a rundown of his strengths:
Pluses
Fluid athlete with long arms and a frame that can pack on bulk.
Multiposition defender with elite upside. Plays extremely hard, takes charges, makes winning plays.
Advanced fundamentals in closing out and fighting over screens. Attentive off-ball. Rebounds too. Capable of defending reliably as a rookie.
Has natural passing instincts, and his height creates angles. Accuracy is an issue but he has excellent vision passing off the dribble.
Good off-ball shooting upside.
Navigates pick-and-rolls well, snakes to the middle of the floor. Clearly knows what he wants to do, just doesn't always execute or finish effectively.
Ntilikina's weaknesses are also outlined. He's extremely raw, he's sometimes an inaccurate passer, and he needs to become a better shooter. If he improves and maxes out his potential then he could eventually become Kemba Walker's successor at point guard, or even play alongside Walker. If he doesn't, he could be a bust.
As a lifelong North Carolinian, college basketball prospects are far more familiar to me than international players. Ntilikina remains a mystery to me. I see his ideal size, I see the flashes of brilliance, but I have no way of knowing what he'll turn into.
This would be a gamble for the Hornets. It could be a risk worth taking.
Mar 17, 2017; Greenville, SC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Justin Jackson (44) shoots the ball against Texas Southern Tigers guard Zach Lofton (2) during the second half in the first round of the 2017 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
1. Justin Jackson, SG, North Carolina
Some of the things I said about Luke Kennard also apply to Justin Jackson. He was the leading scorer at an elite ACC program, he brings the outside shooting Charlotte desperately needs, and he's the type of local talent that could reinvigorate a fan-base that can get sleepy from time to time. Kennard is the better shooter, while Jackson has more defensive upside, but the they both fill similar needs in Charlotte.
This isn't Sean May or Gerald Henderson 2.0. Jackson is a real prospect.
Jackson had a monster junior season that should have erased doubts about his jumper and his ability to defend at the next level.
Jackson was the best player on a North Carolina team that won a national championship, and he even won ACC Player of the Year. That's not too shabby. Jackson averaged 18.3 points, 4.7 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game on 44.3 percent shooting and 37 percent from three.
The improved jumper is what turned Jackson into a prospect that might get selected in the lottery, rather than someone most teams considered a second round pick. He shot just 30.4 percent and 29.2 percent from deep during his first two seasons at UNC. The improvement is a testament to his overall talent and his work ethic.
Jackson didn't settle for only being an elite scorer inside the arc; he worked until his outside shot was proficient. In March, Danny Chau at The Ringer wrote about Jackson's transformation and his importance to North Carolina's season.
"The transformation was born of necessity, on several levels: The Tar Heels' two best players last season (Brice Johnson and Marcus Paige) both decamped for the pros at the end of Carolina's crushing loss in the 2016 national championship game, and the feedback Jackson got from NBA teams after testing the waters at last summer's draft combine was pointed and concise — get stronger, and get better from 3.
"A change in team landscape and individual priorities created the monster we see now. Alongside fellow junior Joel Berry II, Jackson is UNC's lifeline; over the summer, he gained somewhere in the ballpark of 20 pounds and tirelessly worked on refining his shooting process to shed extraneous motion.
It's all interwoven: Jackson's added strength has allowed him to shoot from deeper without straining his mechanics, and the reps he's getting as UNC's lead weapon have given him plenty of time to grow more comfortable with his motion."
Despite his breakout season, there are still some question marks surrounding his NBA potential. Consider this passage from his Draft Express profile.
"While Jackson has shown clear skill development, there are still some things he has to address to compete nightly against NBA wings. At 6'8″ with a 6'11" wingspan, he has very good size and length for a wing, but is just an average athlete by NBA standards. He's a fluid athlete, but lacks a degree of explosiveness.
"His frame is on the thin side at 201 pounds, which is a cause for concern as a 22-year-old junior, since he'll likely always be somewhat lanky. He'll have to continue to get stronger to handle the physicality of a NBA schedule as a small forward, much less be able to spend any time as a small-ball 4-man, which many teams like to see their small forwards do these days.
"Jackson relies on his feel for the game and high skill-level to make the right reads on and off ball to help him score. There will be an adjustment he'll need to make playing against more complex defensive schemes than he saw in college, but in a smaller offensive role, Jackson will likely find ways to use his basketball IQ to find openings to get good looks at the rim."
I agree with The Ringer's Tate Frazier that Jackson will be a shooting guard at the next level. He may have the size of a small forward, but he's got the offensive skill-set and defensive profile of a 2-guard.
Jackson may have trouble guarding elite wings like Paul George, Jimmy Butler, LeBron James and Kevin Durant. He can more than hold his own against shooting guards though.
Jackson would bring scoring to a team that desperately lacks it. If he could help lift some of the offensive burden off of Kemba Walker he would have done his job. Draft Express currently has Jackson slipping to the 16th overall pick and being selected by the Chicago Bulls.
Charlotte may not consider him at pick No. 11. Then again, Michael Jordan is a University of North Carolina basketball legend. He might find the allure of picking one of his own too much to overcome.
The ceiling is the roof.
