National Basketball Association

NBA 6-Pack: Chris Broussard analyzes the Suns-Bucks NBA Finals matchup

Updated Jul. 30, 2021 8:15 a.m. ET

It's the NBA Finals matchup that makes sense, but no one saw it coming.

Injuries have ravaged the NBA postseason, but in the end, the cream has risen to the top, as Chris Paul's Phoenix Suns get set to take on Giannis Antentokounmpo's Milwaukee Bucks.

With Antetokounmpo returning for Game 1 to face the well-rested Suns on their home floor, there was plenty of intrigue in the series.

With that, Chris Broussard is here to give his Finals predictions as the big show gets set to tip off Tuesday.

1. Before injuries to Anthony Davis, James Harden and Kyrie Irving took a toll on Los Angeles and Brooklyn, you predicted a Nets-Lakers NBA Finals. How surprised are you that we’re getting Phoenix vs. Milwaukee? Did you see this coming?

Considering the injuries, I’m not surprised at all. That’s not to take anything away from these two Finals teams, but they clearly benefitted from the injury bug. Every opponent Phoenix has faced was hampered by a major injury, and Milwaukee obviously beat a compromised Brooklyn team. The only Western playoff teams that weren’t hindered by injuries were Phoenix, Portland, Utah, Dallas and Memphis. If you had asked me who I like best out of those teams, it wouldn’t have been hard for me to pick Phoenix. I’ve always thought Milwaukee was the second-best team in the East, so once the injury-plagued Nets were out, I figured the Bucks would reach the Finals.

2. Parity returned to the NBA postseason this year for the first time in what seems like forever. But is it good for the league to have two non-big-market teams in the Finals?

It’s not as bad as it used to be because technology has eliminated a lot of the marketing problems that previously plagued small-market teams. Decades ago, Giannis would not be as well-known because he's in Milwaukee, but today, he’s one of the best-known athletes in the league. The towns, and thus fan bases, being relatively small could hurt a bit, but so far, the playoff ratings have been very good.

Parity historically hasn’t been good for the NBA. The 1970s was the most wide-open decade in league history, and it was also the worst decade, as far as popularity, in league history. Eight teams won NBA titles that decade. However, in the 1980s, also known as the ‘Golden Era,’ only five teams total reached the Finals! Then Jordan dominated the ‘90s, Shaq and Kobe had a dynasty, and the Heat and the Warriors were popular. Dynasties – Goliaths – have typically been better than parity for the NBA.

3. Rank these four guys in terms of who has impressed you the most this postseason: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Chris Paul, Devin Booker and Khris Middleton.

Devin Booker is No. 1. To average 27 points in his first postseason is remarkable, and he has displayed the "Mamba Mentality" by shaking off his broken nose. Khris Middleton is next because, while he has been up and down and inconsistent, he has solidified himself as the Bucks’ closer and carried the team while Giannis has been hurt. Chris Paul is third because he has played through injuries (shoulder, COVID-19, wrist) and came up with the best performance of his career in the closeout game against the Clippers. Giannis is fourth because his numbers have been enormous (28.2 points, 12.7 assists, 5.2 assists per game). The airballs have been unsightly and the 3-point shooting percentage is horrific, but his defense and production have been tremendous.

4. What is the No. 1 key to Phoenix winning the championship?

Chris Paul and Devin Booker need to dominate the Bucks' guards. They need to exploit Milwaukee’s pick-and-roll defense with midrange shots that open things up at the rim and at the arc for their teammates. Deandre Ayton cannot let the Bucks own the paint as they did in the two regular-season matchups.

5. What is the No. 1 key to Milwaukee winning the championship?

Giannis’ health. If he's able to remain healthy enough to play, I give Milwaukee a 40-45% chance to win. If he is severely hampered, I give the Bucks a 10% chance to win at best. Other than that, more consistent play from Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday would help.

6. Who are you picking to win the NBA Finals and in how many games?

Phoenix in 6.

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