National Basketball Association

Clippers-Mavericks Game 3: Three reasons to bet on LA to bounce back (and how)

Updated May. 28, 2021 4:09 p.m. ET

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

It’s do-or-die for the LA Clippers tonight in Game 3 of their first-round NBA playoff series against the Dallas Mavericks.

Luka Dončić played like a man possessed in the first two games, scoring 70 points on 27-for-53 shooting from the floor. And while I hate fading the hottest hand in the postseason, sometimes you’ve gotta do what you’ve gotta do.

I absolutely love betting against overreaction in the playoffs, and that’s exactly what we have here. Pundits are already advancing the Mavericks past the Clippers and the Jazz in the next round for a potential showdown with LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers. The cart is simply outrunning the horse.

The general public can’t get enough Dončić, and now Dallas is a 2.5-point underdog on its home floor. Free money, right?!

Wrong.

Situationally, this is a must-win spot for the Clippers, and it’s one where I expect their players to be focused and ready to rock. They’ve been an absolute mess on defense so far, allowing 240 points in the first two games of this series. Defense is mostly about effort, and LA cannot afford to coast anymore.

Expect coach Ty Lue & Co. to throw everything and the kitchen sink at Dončić, with layered defensive looks and multiple double-teams. They’ve got to make life difficult for him and cannot continue to let him run free on the offensive end. Obviously, that’s easier said than done.

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"We've got to bring physicality to the game," Lue told reporters. "[The Mavs] have definitely been the more physical team, and I don't know why that is because we talk about that. So in order to throw a punch, you've got to swing.

"We have got to be more physical, we've got to swing, and we have to come out punching, and we can't keep getting behind the eight-ball in the first quarter. We have to be better defensively to start the game. We are well aware of that, and now we have to go out and execute it."

The betting market opened this game Clippers -1.5 with a total of 220.5, and we’ve already seen a noticeable push on LA. Almost every sportsbook in America – including FOX Bet – is dealing Clippers -2.5, thanks to a combination of sharp and square money.

I like to see this total creeping down as well. That plays into my belief that the Clippers are going to ratchet up the defensive intensity and body up. FOX Bet currently has O/U 219.5, while some other shops have 219.

And let’s not ignore the elephant in the room. This could very easily be one of those spots where the officials get involved and help carry the Clippers to victory. Stuff like that happens quite a bit in the NBA, and the league is better when superstar players such as Kawhi Leonard stay around and stay invested.

League executives don’t want this series to end in a sweep, and I believe the Clippers will get a little more help than usual from the officials. Keep an eye on that free-throw count for LA.

There comes a time in every NBA team’s season when they have to pull out all the stops. That time is now for the Clippers. If they don’t win, the Kawhi Leonard era in Los Angeles is all but over.

Let’s lay a small number on the Clippers (-2.5) and bank on big-time performances for Leonard and Paul George, not to mention some natural regression for Doncic.

It’s time for the Clips to throw a punch and make this a series.

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.