Comparing Joel Embiid to the Top Ten Picks of the 2014 Draft
Much has been made about how Philadelphia 76ers rookie Joel Embiid compares to this year’s draft class, but how does he compare to his own of 2014?
According to NBA.com and cbssports.com’s rookie rankings, Joel Embiid is going to be the next Rookie of the Year. While Embiid’s play compared to the other rookies have definitely earned him being seen as the top rookie in the 2016-17 season, the 2016 rookie class has mostly disappointed.
While some of this has to do with Embiid’s teammate Ben Simmons getting injured before the season, this article by Sean Deveney makes it clear that the 2016 draft picks are struggling more than they should be. With Embiid being a 2014 draft pick, why not compare him to the top ten picks of his own draft?
By comparing the non-Embiid top ten 2014 draft picks’ first two seasons and what each player (including Embiid) has done through 25 games this season — because the NBA schedule have teams playing a different amount of games that eventually lead up to being 82 games and players missing games to injury or rest, I decided to choose 25 games so people can see a small sample size of all the players playing the same amount of games — with a link to an article that does a good job explaining each player’s potential, you should get a clear picture of how good Joel Embiid really is.
Dec 30, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Andrew Wiggins (22) dribbles in the third quarter against the Milwaukee Bucks at Target Center. The Minnesota Timberwolves beat the Milwaukee Bucks 116-99. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Andrew Wiggins
Selected with the first pick of the 2014 by the Cleveland Cavaliers then traded to the Minnesota Timberwolves, Andrew Wiggins probably would have been selected by the Sixers with the third pick if Embiid wasn’t injury.
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Despite only being considered the best prospect in the draft due to injury, Wiggins managed to win the Rookie of the Year award for the 2014-15 season. Wiggins averaged 16.9 points, 2.1 assists, 4.6 rebounds, 1 steal, 0.6 blocks, and 2.2 turnovers per game while playing 36.2 minutes per game his rookie season.
Wiggins’ scoring is the only area that he had significant improvement his second season. He averaged 20.7 points per game, but his assists and rebounds per game decreased to 2 and 3.6.
Through 25 games this season Wiggins averaged 22.2 points, 2.3 assists, 4.2 rebounds, 0.5 steals, 0.4 blocks, and 2.5 turnovers per game while playing 36.4 minutes per game and shooting 31 percent from the 3-point line. His biggest improvement this season is his shooting behind the 3-point line. He was shooting 39 percent from the 3-point line during this time period.
This article by Ti Windisch does a great job detailing Wiggins’ strengths and weakness while making a strong case that Wiggins is likely to become the next DeMar DeRozan. DeRozon has been select two NBA All-Star games and averages 18.8 points per game for his career. While Wiggins is likely to be the Robin to Karl-Anthony Town’s Batman, he is currently the best scorer in the 2014 and is in competition for best player.
Jan 8, 2017; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Jabari Parker (12) takes a shot against Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal (3) in the fourth quarter at BMO Harris Bradley Center. The Wizards beat the Bucks 107-101. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
Jabari Parker
Selected with the second pick of the 2014 draft by the Milwaukee Bucks, Jabari Parker only played in 25 games before missing the rest of his rookie season due to injury.
He averaged 12.3 points, 1.7 assists, 5.5 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 0.2 blocks, and 1.9 turnovers per game while playing 29.5 minutes per game.
Scoring and decreasing the number of turnovers he committed per game were Parker’s biggest improvements during his second season. Parker scored 14.1 points and committed 1.5 turnovers per game, while averaging 0.2 less rebounds and the same amount of assists per game.
Through 25 games this season Parker averaged 19.4 points, 2.1 assists, 5.6 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 0.2 blocks, and 1.4 turnovers per game while playing 32.5 minutes per game. He was shooting 37 percent from the 3-point line during this time period.
Coming out of college, Parker was compared to Carmelo Anthony, and I never thought he would ever be anywhere near that good. I was worried that a small forward/power forward that played no defense and shot 36 percent from the college 3-point line might be the next Derrick Williams.
While I never predicted Parker would be a bust, I thought it was a realistic possibility. But the way Parker has been playing this season and Jay Boozell’s article suggesting that comparing him to Anthony might’ve been a fair comparison, has changed how I view Parker as a player. Parker is likely to always be a sidekick to Giannis Antetokounmpo, but he is also likely to become one the top 20 scorers in the NBA.
Jan 3, 2017; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (21) reacts after being fouled against the Minnesota Timberwolves during the second quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Joel Embiid
Selected with the third pick of the 2014 draft by the Philadelphia 76ers, Joel Embiid missed the first two season of his career due same foot injury and caused many people to view him as the next Greg Oden or Sam Bowie. Embiid was originally projected to first pick in the draft before his injury and many people believed that he would be the best player in the draft.
Through 25 games this season Embiid averaged 19.4 points, 2 assists, 7.3 rebounds, 0.7 steals, 2.4 blocks, and 3.7 turnovers per game while averaging 25 minutes per game. He was shooting 37 percent from the 3-point line on 76 attempts.
I always had faith that Embiid could come back from his injury and be a great player, but that faith was nearly crushed after the Sixers selected Jahlil Okafor and announced Embiid would miss the 2015-16 season.
It wasn’t until around 25 games of the 2015-16 season when I decided that I didn’t want to see the Sixers build around Okafor did I fully recommit to the Embiid will be great hope bandwagon.
Even daydreaming how good Embiid could be during one of the Sixers’ 20-point loses last season, I never imaged he would be this good this soon. Once you finish reading the production of all ten players through 25 games this season, you’ll see that Embiid is already in competition for best player in the 2014 draft. And for a more detailed evaluation on Embiid’s potential, I recommend this article from Mika Honkasalo.
Dec 22, 2016; New York, NY, USA; Orlando Magic power forward Aaron Gordon (00) warms up before a game against the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Aaron Gordon
Selected with the fourth pick of the 2014 draft by the Orlando Magic, Aaron Gordon was seen as an amazing athlete that could become an amazing basketball. While he played in slightly less than half of his games during his rookie season due to injury, he didn’t do enough in the games he did play in to show that he can become more than a great athlete. He averaged 5.2 points, 0.7 assists, 3.6 rebounds, 0.4 steals, 0.5 blocks, and 0.8 turnovers while playing 17 minutes per game. Gordon’s scoring, rebounding, and assists improved drastically in his second season. He averaged 9.2 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 1.6 assists per game.
Through 25 games this season Gordon averaged 9.6 points, 1.8 assists, 4.4 rebounds, 0.8 steals, 0.6 blocks, and 1 turnover while playing 25.9 minutes per game. He was shooting 30 percent from the 3-point line during this time period.
While Gordon might not be a bust, it’s hard to envision him ever becoming as good as the three players drafted before him and might not be as good as some of the players drafted after him. Gordon still lacks the basketball skills that most players in their third season have. He played power forward his first two season, but is playing small forward this season, so it’s not clear what position he should be playing in the NBA. Some of Gordon’s issues could be blamed on having four different head coaches during his short career, but he should still have more impressive stats based on how high he was drafted. If you’re someone that still believes Gordon has superstar potential in him, Philip Rossman-Reich’s article makes a strong case that Gordon might be an elite perimeter defender.
Dante Exum
Taken with the fifth pick in the 2014 draft by the Utah Jazz, Dante Exum was seen as a player that could’ve went to the Sixers at third overall due to their head coach Brett Brown coaching the Australian National team from 2009 to 2012 and likely having more knowledge about the Australian born player than most NBA teams.
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Exum played in all the Jazz’s games during his rookie season, but started in only half of them. Exum averaged 4.8 points, 2.4 assists, 1.6 rebounds, 0.5 steals, 0.2 blocks, and 1.4 turnovers per game while playing 22.2 minutes per game. Exum suffered a major knee injury playing for the Australian National team during the 2015 offseason causing him to miss the entire 2015-16 season.
Through 25 games this season Exum averaged 6.5 points, 1.7 assists, 2.2 rebounds, 0.2 steals, 0.3 blocks, and 1 turnover per game while playing 20.9 minutes per game. He was shooting 29 percent from the 3-point line during this time period.
“If Exum is going to have any future past his rookie contract, he’ll need to start showing larger signs of improvement. Otherwise, he’ll turn into one of the great “what if” prospects in the last ten years.”
The previous quote is from this Robby Lewis article detailing Exum’s lack of development and why it’s too soon to declare him a bust. While Exum was drafted in the top five of the 2014 draft, he is unlikely to ever be considered one of the top five players taken in 2014 and could become another cautionary tell of drafting a mostly unknown international player.
Dec 22, 2016; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Boston Celtics guard Marcus Smart (36) brings the ball up court against the Indiana Pacers at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Boston defeats Indiana 109-102. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
Marcus Smart
Selected with the sixth pick of the 2014 draft by the Boston Celtics, Smart was intended to be the point guard to replace Rajon Rondo, a player that averaged 11 points and 8.5 assists during his nine seasons with the Celtics.
Smart played in 67 games in his rookie year and started in 38 of them. He averaged 7.8 points, 3.1 assists, 3.3 rebounds, 1.5 steals, 0.3 blocks, and 1.3 turnovers while playing 27 minutes per game.
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Smart made modest improvements doing his second season in scoring and rebounds. He averaged 9.1 points and 4.2 rebounds per game.
Through 25 games this season Smart averaged 9.3 points, 4.3 assists, 4.2 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 0.3 blocks, and 2 turnovers while playing 30.2 minutes per game. He was shooting 27 percent from the 3-point line during this time period.
Smart isn’t a good enough passer to ever become a great starting point guard. The percentage of made shots that Smart assisted while on court, or assist percentage, is currently 17.2 percent for his career.
That is significantly less than Michael Carter-Williams‘ 31.1 percent and T.J. McConnell‘s 36.9 percent for their careers.
While the Celtics decision to trade a first round pick for Isaiah Thomas was a great decision, if they saw Smart as an All-Star caliber point guard, it’s unlikely that they would have done the Thomas trade or draft point guard Terry Rozier in the first round of the 2015 draft.
Smart is unlikely to be a star or a great point guard capable of drastically improving all his teammates by averaging over seven assists per game, but he is an elite defensive player, and according to Chris Forsberg’s article, a good all-around player.
Dec 20, 2016; Charlotte, NC, USA; Los Angeles Lakers forward Julius Randle (30) stands on the court in the first half against the Charlotte Hornets at Spectrum Center. The Hornets defeated the Lakers 117-113. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
Julius Randle
Selected with the seventh pick of the 2014 draft by the Los Angeles Lakers, Julius Randle had the best college season of anyone selected in the top ten. During his one season at the University of Kentucky he averaged 15 points and 10.4 rebounds per game, and led his team to a six point loss in the National Championship game against the University of Connecticut.
Randle suffered a major leg injury in his first ever NBA game causing him to miss the rest of his rookie season. Randle played in 81 games his second season and averaged 11.3 points, 1.8 assists, 10.2 rebounds, 0.4 steals, 0.4 blocks, and 1.8 turnovers per game while playing 28.2 minutes per game.
Through 25 games this season Randle averaged 14.2 points, 3.2 assists, 8.9 rebounds, 0.7 steals, 0.4 blocks, and 2.7 turnovers per game while playing 28.4 minutes per game. He was shooting 18 percent from the 3-point line during this time period.
I’m someone that wasn’t a fan of Randle coming out of the draft and thought he was going to be an average-at-best player. Because Randle was much bigger than most of the college athletes that guarded him, I thought his forcing his way to the rim play style wouldn’t translate to the NBA.
It turns out I was wrong, and Randle has been a much better player than I thought. He has been good enough to be considered one of the top five players in this draft, and Trevor Lane’s article makes a strong case why.
Dec 29, 2016; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Philadelphia 76ers guard Nik Stauskas (11) looks to the basket during the first quarter against the Utah Jazz at Vivint Smart Home Arena. Utah Jazz win 100-83. Mandatory Credit: Chris Nicoll-USA TODAY Sports
Nik Stauskas
Selected with the eighth pick of the 2014 draft by the Sacramento Kings, Nik Stauskas’ was defined by a technical mistake causing him to get a new nickname (Sauce Castillo) and poor play that made the organization that drafted him consider him a bust after his first season.
Stauskas averaged 4.4 points, 0.9 assists, 1.2 rebounds, 0.3 steals, 0.2 blocks, and 0.5 turnovers per game while playing 15.4 minutes per game, and was traded to the Sixers after his rookie season as a salary dump that help the Kings sign Rajon Rondo.
Stauskas did improve his second season, but not enough to escape the bust label. He averaged 8.5 points, 1.9 assists, 2.5 rebounds, 0.6 steals, 0.3 blocks, and 1.3 turnovers while playing 24.8 minutes per game.
Stauskas also shot 33 percent from the 3-point line his sophomore season, which is terrible considering he came out of college averaging 44 percent from the 3-point line.
Through 25 games this season Stauskas averaged 9.5 points, 1.9 assists, 2.5 rebounds, 0.4 steals, 0.4 blocks, and 1.6 turnovers per game while playing 26.1 minutes per game. He was shooting 38 percent from the 3-point line during this time period.
Stauskas is having the best season of his career and people are now writing positive articles about his play, like this article from Pete Sawan. While I’m still not convinced he’s good enough for the Sixers to re-sign when he becomes a free agent, he has recently proven he deserves to be in the NBA.
Noah Vonleh
Selected with the ninth pick of the 2014 draft by the Charlotte Hornets, Noah Vonleh is a bust.
He averaged 3.3 points, 0.2 assists, 3.4 rebounds, 0.2 steals, 0.4 blocks, and 0.4 turnovers per game while playing 10.4 minutes per game.
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These terrible stats were enough for the Horners to give up on Vonleh after one season as they traded him to the Portland Trail Blazers during the 2015 offseason.
Vonleh improved his second season while continuing to reach the low expectations associated with being a bust. He averaged 3.6 points, 0.4 assists, 3.9 rebounds, 0.3 steals, 0.3 blocks, and 0.6 turnovers per game.
Through 25 games this season Vonleh has averaged 3.2 points, 0.2 assists, 3.5 rebounds, 0.3 steals, 0.4 blocks, and 0.8 turnovers per game while playing 12 minutes per game. He was shooting 32 percent from the 3-point line during this time period.
It turns out that when a player is considered a bust after two seasons, people don’t care to write about him. This article by Evans Clinchy detailing how Vonleh has improved this offseason and how it might make him resemble a non-terrible NBA player, is one of the best articles I’ve seen written about him in the past six months.
Some people saw Vonleh as the next Chris Bosh before he entered the 2014 draft, but now into his third season, he is more Tristan Bosh, a person I just made up that doesn’t play in the NBA. Just like Noah Vonleh in the near future.
Jan 4, 2017; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic guard Elfrid Payton (4) looks up against the Atlanta Hawks during the second quarter at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Elfrid Payton
Selected with the tenth pick of the 2014 draft by the Philadelphia 76ers, and then immediately traded to the Orlando Magic for the first round pick the Sixers gave the Magic for Andrew Bynum, Elfrid Payton had a good rookie season.
He averaged 8.9 points, 6.5 assists, 4.3 rebounds, 1.7 steals, 0.2 blocks, and 2.5 turnovers while playing 30.4 minutes per game. Payton’s scoring and blocking improved by 1.8 points and 0.1 blocks per game, but his assists, rebounds, and steals decreases his second season. He averaged 6.4 assists, 3.6 rebounds, and 1.2 steals per game.
Through 25 games this season Payton averaged 10.4 points, 5.3 assists, 3.8 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 0.7 blocks, and 2 turnovers per game while playing 28.8 minutes per game. He was shooting 20 percent from the 3-point line during this time period.
Payton is basically a better version of Michael Carter-Williams, a tall point guard with good athleticism without the ability to shoot. But Philip Rossman-Reich’s article show that when Payton does have a good shooting night, his team tends to win.
With the exceptions of Jason Kidd and Rondo in their prime, it is hard to build a great offense around that struggles to make shots is very difficult. And like MCW, Payton isn’t great at getting to the foul line to make up for his poor shooting. He only goes to the free throw line on 26 percent of his shots. Despite his shooting issues, Payton still has the potential to be a top 15 point guard.
