Dallas Mavericks: 5 options for pick No. 9 in 2017 NBA Draft
Feb 8, 2017; Tallahassee, FL, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack guard Dennis Smith (4) dribbles against the Florida State Seminoles during the second half at the Donald L. Tucker Center. Florida State won 95-71. Mandatory Credit: Glenn Beil-USA TODAY Sports
The Dallas Mavericks rode an up and down season to the ninth pick in the 2017 NBA Draft. What players could they select with their first lottery pick in years?
The Dallas Mavericks need a star player.
That seems like an obvious statement on the surface. Every NBA team could use more star power, and every team other than perhaps the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors need another star to reach title contention.
But the Dallas Mavericks need a star player more than most, as their star wanes into the very last years of his career. They have been a pillar of consistency and success throughout Dirk Nowitzki's career, but that has existed in finding lesser talent and maximizing it around the singular star.
Owner Mark Cuban, head coach Rick Carlisle, and the entire team have excelled in finding castoffs and journeymen to turn them into rotation players. For starters falling short of their ceilings elsewhere, the Mavericks have been an opportunity to maximize their gifts. Players always overachieve in Dallas, and that is a testament to the fiber of the entire organization.
Just this past season the team took Seth Curry and proved he is a capable starter. Yogi Ferrell went from D-League to Big-D, starting 29 games for Dallas down the stretch. Harrison Barnes went from NBA Finals laughingstock to a 20-point per game scorer and namesake of his own All-Star burger.
But star power? That has been almost solely Dirk for his entire career. Despite making the playoffs 15 out of 16 seasons before this year, and winning the NBA title in 2011, it's been the Dirk Nowitzki show. The future Hall-of-Famer is a 13-time All-Star; over that span the Mavericks have had just four other All-Star selections – Steve Nash (twice), Josh Howard and Jason Kidd.
As Nowitzki nears the end, the Mavericks have to find a way to replace his talent with someone approximating a star, even if they don't find another Hall-of-Fame player who changes the game of basketball. Armed with the ninth pick in the 2017 NBA Draft, their chance is now to find that next star.
What players could be available at pick No. 9 that fit the bill? Who should the Mavericks target to give them the best chance at another star?
Mar 23, 2017; San Jose, CA, USA; Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Zach Collins (32) dribbles the ball past West Virginia Mountaineers guard Jevon Carter (2) during the first half in the semifinals of the West Regional of the 2017 NCAA Tournament at SAP Center. Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports
5. Zach Collins, C, Gonzaga
The best center in the NBA Draft might just be a player who accumulated zero starts his entire college career, averaging just 17.3 minutes per game for a mid-major team. While that statement seems unbelievable, it is a perfect representation of the situation Collins found himself in.
That mid-major team was Gonzaga, who lost just two games all season – including the national championship game to the North Carolina Tar Heels. Behind one of the country's best centers in Przemek Karnowski, Collins was not asked to do much as the backup center.
When he did get onto the court, however, Collins displayed flashes of something truly special. Advanced metrics light up like a Christmas tree when evaluating Collins' game, including such standout numbers as a 30.9 Player Efficiency Rating (average being 15) and .298 win shares per 40 minutes, which led the team.
On the Bulldogs, Collins took full advantage of the spacing provided, doing his work around the basket with a surprisingly diverse array of moves, finishing at a 70 percent rate around the rim. He excelled in transition and in the pick-and-roll, crashing to the rim to both catch passes (Collins might have the softest hands of any big in the draft) and cleaning up misses.
That exact role is exactly what he would step into for Dallas. Carlisle maximizes spacing at every opportunity, and his preferred poison is tearing apart a defense horizontally with shooters while doing the same vertically with rim-running big in the pick-and-roll. That's Collins' bread and butter. If he continues to develop the jumper he broke out at times for Gonzaga, then he could be a steal at No. 9.
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Defensively Collins offers the same package — flashes of everything you want in a center, from moving his feet on the perimeter to defending the rim. He gobbled up rebounds, rating out as one of the best in the country. He swatted nearly four shots per 40 minutes, again one of the top numbers in the draft.
The reason Collins is not a perfect fit is two-fold. First is the small sample size. He excelled on one of the nation's best teams surrounded by talented players in a backup role. When he's asked to carry a team from the pivot in the NBA, can he do it? And will his elite efficiency fall when asked to play more minutes?
Secondly, the Mavericks just traded for a young center to fill that role. Nerlens Noel may have been the top pick in the 2013 NBA Draft if he had not torn his ACL during his freshman season at Kentucky, and has the potential to be a game-changing defensive center. With his payday looming in July, should the Mavericks invest in another center?
If they do, Collins is their best choice. In a Dallas environment that maximizes offensive talent, he will have every chance to succeed.
Mar 23, 2017; San Jose, CA, USA; Arizona Wildcats forward Lauri Markkanen (10) drives the ball past Xavier Musketeers forward Tyrique Jones (0) during the second period in the semifinals of the West Regional of the 2017 NCAA Tournament at SAP Center. Xavier Musketeers defeated the Arizona Wildcats 73-71. Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports
4. Lauri Markkanen, PF/C, Arizona
If the Mavericks are looking to replace Dirk Nowitzki's star power with the player most closely resembling Dirk Nowitzki, they have perhaps their best opportunity to do so in the 2017 NBA Draft. Lauri Markkanen, while unlikely to reach the Hall-of-Fame heights of Nowitzki's career, offers many of the same strengths in his offensive skill-set.
It's been a trite and lazy practice to label European big men with any shooting ability whatsoever the "next Dirk" but in Markkanen's case it may actually be fair. The Finnish forward demonstrated during his season at Arizona that his stroke is nearly flawless, and he hit 42.3 percent of his three-pointers on 5.8 attempts per game.
Sam Vecenie of Vice Sports makes the case that Lauri Markkanen may be the best 7-foot shooter to ever enter the draft, and immediately would become the best shooter at his position other than Dirk Nowitzki. In Rick Carlisle's system he would have space to launch, and an offensive pairing of Markkanen and Nowitzki would play any traditional big off of the floor.
The problem with Markkanen is the other side of the ball, where he may also be the worst defensive center in the draft – and certainly among bigs in lottery consideration. He doesn't provide much length despite his 7'0″ frame, and when asked to defend in the post he offered little resistance. One key area any team will need to address is adding strength to his frame to allow him to withstand the pounding of the NBA.
Markkanen could be the perfect heir to Nowitzki in Dallas, but that's also a lot of pressure to put on a teenager just coming into the league. Mavericks' fans will expect him to be the player Dirk was, and that's too much to expect even from his biggest fans. There are benefits to Markkanen developing in Dallas, but there are downsides as well. Will Mark Cuban pull the trigger if he is available at ninth?
Feb 24, 2017; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Yogi Ferrell (11) helps up guard Seth Curry (30) in the third quarter against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Target Center. The Minnesota Timberwolves beat the Dallas Mavericks 97-84. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
3. Frank Ntilikina, PG, France
The Dallas Mavericks uncovered a pair of guards last season, signing Seth Curry to a bargain deal in free agency and pulling Yogi Ferrell out of the D-League. Both undrafted out of college, they stepped up in Dallas to start and find success down the stretch of the season. While neither project as future stars, they can be reliable rotation players on a good team.
The Mavericks have to address the position of starting point guard or at least add a piece that can work well with Ferrell and Curry to provide the team with top notch play. Frank Ntilikina, a French point guard entering the draft, could be the solution to that problem.
The Mavericks have always been at the front of the pack scouting internationally, and that may provide them the level of comfort necessary to take Ntilikina with the ninth pick. Although he has provided impact at the club level, Ntilikina's true highlights come from international play, where he will succeed Tony Parker as the next great French point guard.
Defensively Ntilikina projects as a bulldog down the road, with the length and toughness to bother opposing guards at either backcourt position. His quick hands and extended reach allow him to both close off passing lanes and snipe potential passes from midair.
Offensively he has a smooth jumper that has worked for him more often than not, but will need some work to gain consistency and diversity. While he can make pinpoint passes, he also turns the ball over a lot — in fact his greatest weakness may be his inability to take care of the ball and generate efficient offense for his entire team.
If Ntilikina can cut down on the turnovers and work on his shot — both realistic goals in Rick Carlisle's offense — he could become a solid starting point guard, and perhaps more. But it's also possible that Ntilikina ends up a good rotational point guard — think Shaun Livingston post-injury, or Mario Chalmers — and doesn't reach the ceiling of his game.
The Mavericks need a player that can be the former, as they already have the latter.
Ntilikina's combination of size and defense would be a perfect fit alongside the players this team already has in place. If they decide he's heading for greatness, he should be the pick at nine.
Jan 21, 2017; Raleigh, NC, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack guard Dennis Smith Jr. (4) drives to the basket as Wake Forest Demon Deacons guard Brandon Childress (0) defends during the second half at PNC Arena. The Demon Deacons won 93-88. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
2. Dennis Smith Jr., PG, NC State
While Ntilikina is more likely to be available for the Mavericks when they pick at ninth, it's also possible that Dennis Smith Jr. could be waiting for them. One of the top talents in the country coming into the season, Smith demonstrated both his tremendous upside and concerning downside during his season at NC State.
Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball are elite offensive prospects, but Dennis Smith Jr. may truly have the most offensive upside of any point guard in this draft. He is a truly explosive athlete, able to burst to the rim and dunk in traffic or transition. His tight handle allows him to navigate through traffic or create separation for jumpers, which he knocks down with a smooth stroke.
Defensively Smith's issues seem to be focus and effort related, not based on pure ability. While he doesn't have a long frame, he is strong and quick, able to keep in front of opposing ball-handlers in one-on-one situations. When put through screens he struggles to fight over them, a skill he will need to focus on. Overall he possesses the defensive tools, but the will to use them is in question.
If Smith rounds into a scorer who includes his teammates in the offense, he can be a dynamic offensive player. If he puts the scoring load on his back and calls his own number every possession, his team's upside will be limited. The NC State team from last year looked strong on paper, but fell apart throughout the season. How much of that was Smith's fault, and how much simply happened around him?
There are concerns about Smith, but there is also room for a huge reward. If the weaknesses cause him to drop, then Dallas would have a real shot at a home run by taking Smith. He could develop into a player with the scoring ferocity needed to destroy defenders, and teams trying to defend the paint against Smith with Nowitzki popping to the perimeter for three-pointers will be stretched to the limit. The potential is there – will Dallas be the team to take a shot at reaching it?
Phoenix Suns
Mar 18, 2017; Orlando, FL, USA; Florida State Seminoles forward Jonathan Isaac (1) during the first half in the second round of the 2017 NCAA Tournament at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
1. Jonathan Isaac, SF/PF, Florida State
The Dallas Mavericks are making a selection in the draft that will ideally sustain their team for years and years. This isn't a "win-now" selection designed to force open Dirk Nowitzki's window of excellence, especially in the shadow of the Golden State Warriors. The Mavericks are not realistically competing for a title before Dirk retires.
That being said, Jonathan Isaac provides the perfect answer to both questions: How do the Mavericks compete during Nowitzki's final days, and how do they compete once the smooth German hangs up his jersey for the final time?
Isaac may be the best defender in the draft, combining tremendous length with foot speed, instincts, and verticality to shut down perimeter threats and provide dangerous weakside shot-blocking. Accounting for the rookie learning curve, more than any other prospect he should be able to jump in and play NBA defense. Alongside the aging Nowitzki, that is an immediately translatable skill.
Isaac also has offensive upside, perhaps more than many know. He played off-ball almost exclusively at Florida State, and has already shown to be a capable spot-up shooter. With a little work his range should comfortably extend to the corner three. Over time there is a strong possibility he can add off-the-dribble skills, punishing closeouts and making plays happen off of cuts.
The future of the NBA may be defensively versatile centers with diverse offensive games — Isaac fits that bill perfectly. Whether he is playing at the 4 alongside Nerlens Noel or center alongside Harrison Barnes, a Dallas offense can stretch the floor with Isaac without compromising defense. That's the Draymond Green model, and it's something NBA teams are salivating over.
Of course there is no guarantee Isaac can put everything together. He was more like a role player at Florida State, albeit a tremendously talented and productive one. Can he be the first or second option on a team, or will he need to be third or fourth? That answer determines his ceiling and whether he is worthy of the ninth pick – or whether he will be available there at all.
The Dallas Mavericks have many directions to pursue in the 2017 NBA Draft. They can search for a future starting point guard, shore up talent on the wing, or find versatile bigs to step in once Nowitzki retires. But the core goal entering the draft is that they need to find a star – and lucky for them there are a number of options that provide that potential. Now it's up to them to make the pick.
