Denver Nuggets: Pros and cons of re-signing Danilo Gallinari
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With an exciting and emerging young core, the Denver Nuggets must soon determine the value of veteran forward Danilo Gallinari.
Over the course of this season, the Denver Nuggets demonstrated why they could be one of the true up-and-coming teams in the NBA. Led by emerging superstar Nikola Jokic, the Nuggets jumped from 33 to 40 wins this season, narrowly missing out on their first playoff berth since 2013.
Ranking third in the league in the league in scoring at 111.7 points per game, the Nuggets were led by Danilo Gallinari, whose 18.2 points per game led the Nuggets for the second consecutive season. Along with Gallinari, Denver also had five other players averaging double-figures for scoring. The most promising aspect from the Nuggets' perspective was the improvement they made gradually over the course of the season.
With a 25-31 record leading into the All-Star break, the Nuggets rounded out the year with a 15-11 mark. Aside from Gallinari's consistency over the course of the season, it was the emergence of Jokic into a legitimate force that took the Nuggets to another level. Over his last 46 games, Jokic averaged 19.8 points, 11.2 rebounds and 5.8 assists in 30.3 minutes per game. Shooting 57.9 percent from the field, Jokic was a +237 while on the floor.
Aside from Jokic, the player comfortably with the next best impact on the floor during this span was Gallo, with a +187 while on the floor. So while Jokic and emerging stars such as Gary Harris and Jamal Murray are the future of the Nuggets, Gallinari's status currently remains uncertain.
According to The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski, Gallinari will opt out of the final year of his contract and hit free agency this summer. Here are the pros and cons of the Nuggets retaining Gallinari this offseason.
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Arguments for re-signing Gallinari
In the three-point era, Gallinari's ability to shoot from deep is simply invaluable. Hitting at a 38.9 percent clip on 5.1 attempts per game, the 6-foot-10 forward's ability to stretch the floor and score from all over the court provides the ideal complement for a young, quick and athletic Nuggets team.
While it may sound simplistic, the following numbers can provide some insight into the importance of Gallinari. Over the course of this season, when Gallinari hit three or three-pointers, the Nuggets had a 13-7 record. But in the games where Gallinari failed to hit a three-pointer, the Nuggets were 1-6. Furthermore, Denver had an offensive rating of 112.7 when Gallinari was on the floor, and just 107.5 when he off the court.
Overall, Gallinari averaged 18.2 points and 5.2 rebounds in 33.9 minutes per game. On top of his three-point shooting, he was elite from the free-throw line, converting at a 90.2 percent clip. One of Gallo's most impressive games this season came against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Playing 38 minutes, Gallinari posted 34 points and 10 rebounds, hitting 12-of-20 from the field and 4-of-9 from behind three.
Although he can be listed as a small forward, the Nuggets will be best served moving forward playing Gallinari at the power forward spot. At 6'10", Gallo's skills provide a great complement to the overall package and ball-handling exhibited by Jokic. This season, 32.8 percent of Gallinari's made field goal were made unassisted, compared to 40.1 percent for Jokic.
Furthermore, Gallinari had a usage rate of just 20.0 for the season compared to 23.4 percent for Jokic. So while he has ball-handling capabilities, Gallo is predominately an off-the-ball player, thereby making use of the playmaking skills of Jokic and the other ball handlers on the Nuggets' roster.
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Arguments against re-signing Gallinari
First of all, there is the inevitable price tag that comes with a free agent signing. In a current climate where Kent Bazemore can be signed to a four-year, $70 million contract, retaining quality players is becoming increasingly costly and difficult. As an unrestricted free agent, Gallinari is able to sign with another team without the Nuggets being able to match the offer.
Turning 29 prior to next season, the Nuggets must weigh whether re-signing Gallinari would be most beneficial for the franchise in the long-term. One factor that may steer them away is his inability to stay on the court. Since arriving in Denver, Gallinari has missed considerable time due to injury.
The most glaring issue was Gallinari missing the entire 2013-14 season due to surgery on his left ACL. Since returning from that injury, Gallinari has played in 59, 53 and 63 games over the last three seasons. This season, he missed time primarily due to soft-tissue injuries, whereas the previous year, Gallinari missed significant time due to a severe ankle injury.
Furthermore, the makeup of the Nuggets as a whole needs to be taken into consideration. Jokic is still just 20, along with Jamal Murray. Emmanuel Mudiay is just 21 while Gary Harris is only 22. Therefore, by the time these players are reaching the prime of their career, Gallinari will more than likely be on the decline.
Therefore, being stuck with an aging player on a significant contract will only create more difficulty in retaining the young pieces presently on the Nuggets' roster.
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Decision time
With the NBA Finals underway, and the annual draft just a few weeks away, the next major step on the NBA calendar after that is the commencement of the free agency period.
Judging by their recent comments, there is a strong chance that the relationship between the Nuggets and Gallinari can be extended for the foreseeable future.
Nuggets' general manager Tim Connelly recently expressed the franchise's desire to re-sign Gallinari this summer:
"Gallo has been a core piece of this team for a very long time. We have a fantastic relationship, so we're always very up front and honest. If he opts out we'll figure out how we approach that. He's a guy who really enjoys Denver. He had a career year in a bunch of different statistical categories. He's a guy who we know very well, and he knows us very well. I think it will be a pretty easy approach when you have that type of relationship."
For his part, Gallinari expressed his love for the franchise, despite not being able to fully commit his future in Denver:
"As you guys know, it's tough for me to leave Denver. It's my city. I love the city. I have a house here. After my career is over, Denver is going to be my city. It's very tough for me to leave, so we'll see."
When forecasting Gallinari's potential contract, there are two recent free agent signings that can be very relevant comparisons. Last summer, the Memphis Grizzlies signed Chandler Parsons to a four-year, $94 deal. The other was Ryan Anderson signing a four-year, $80 million contract with the Houston Rockets.
Not only are their games relatively similar, this trio is in the same age bracket. Anderson was 28 when he signed his deal, whereas Parsons was 27. At 28, Gallinari is in the prime of his career, and would make for a terrific addition for any contending team with cap space.
In all, Denver is not known as a haven for attracting free agents. Judging from Connolly's comments, the Nuggets seem more than keen to re-sign Gallinari, and try to push into the thick of the playoff action next season.
The main question remaining is: does Gallinari share the same level of enthusiasm?
The answer to that question will have to wait until July 1 and the commencement of the free agency moratorium.
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