National Basketball Association

History says Game 5 between Suns and Bucks will prove critical in NBA Finals

Updated Jul. 29, 2021 9:37 p.m. ET

It has all come down to this … kinda.

On Saturday, the Phoenix Suns and Milwaukee Bucks will do battle in Game 5 of the NBA Finals, with the series knotted at two games apiece and each squad having held home court through the first four games.

When it comes to the NBA Finals, of course, every win count, but how critical is Saturday's Game 5 in a vacuum?

In short: extremely.

Historically, when the NBA Finals have been tied 2-2, the team that wins Game 5 has gone on to win the series 72% of the time (21-8). Furthermore, the Finals team with home-court advantage – in this case, Phoenix – is 20-9 in Game 5 with the series tied (68.9%).

When the team with home-court advantage loses Game 5 at home, however, things historically look bleaker heading into Game 6, with that team sitting at 4-5 in Game 6 on the road.

While those numbers might seem to play into the hands of the Suns, they also put pressure on Phoenix to emerge victorious.

With that, the burden is squarely on the shoulders of 36-year-old Chris Paul, who is potentially staring his final chance to win an NBA title directly in the eyes.

By his standards, Paul laid an egg in Game 4, finishing with 10 points on 5-for-13 shooting, coupled with seven assists, four rebounds and five turnovers.

Still, Shannon Sharpe pointed out on Friday's "Undisputed" that the silver lining for Paul is that it's only up from here.

"I'm sure when Chris Paul looked back at that film [of Game 4], he was like, ‘Man, was that me? Or was that somebody impersonating me? … I’m not supposed to play this bad in a situation like this.'"

Sharpe added that he is leaning toward picking the Suns in Game 5. Skip Bayless – reluctantly – agreed but said he's "lost" in this series, mainly due to the up and down play of Paul.

"The X-factor is that guy? … [The Finals] would have been a virtual done deal if Chris hadn't played that poorly and committed those atrocities of turnovers in the fourth quarter."

Skip and Shannon weren't the only two voices harping on Saturday's Game 5 hinging on superstar performances.

Former NBA All-Star Antoine Walker said that in short, it's all about Paul and Giannis Antetokounmpo in Game 5, the two richest players on the floor who will be called to make the money plays in crunch time.

The pressure is on in the desert.

Let's see who can stand the heat.

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