Grizzlies-Spurs, Lakers-Warriors betting picks on second night of play-in
By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The second night of the NBA Play-In Tournament features two of the best players the league has seen over the past decade – LeBron James and Steph Curry – and a classic youth against experience matchup in Memphis vs. San Antonio.
The NBA playoffs are a marathon, not a sprint, so don’t go leaping into the first week of the postseason with half your bankroll. There will be plenty of gambling opportunities as the playoffs roll on, so pace yourself.
Memphis Grizzlies -4 at San Antonio Spurs
All three regular-season meetings were blowouts by double digits, with the Spurs winning once and the Grizzlies winning twice. But toss those out the window, as these teams haven’t met in three months, and Jaren Jackson Jr. missed all three games, while LaMarcus Aldridge played in all three (he was traded to the Nets and then retired).
Expect an up-tempo game with a ton of points – Memphis led the NBA in fast-break points – and a flurry of substitutions, as both teams go deep into their benches. The world seems to love the Grizzlies here, as the Spurs limp in having lost four straight and have not played great since they lost Derrick White to injury in late April.
I give a slight lean to the Spurs +4 due to experience. The Grizzlies are one of the youngest teams in the league, leaning heavily (40% of their minutes) on rookies or second-year players. The Spurs' veteran cast is led by DeMar DeRozan, who is one of the best isolation players in the NBA (1.20 points per possession).
What has me passing is that DeRozan’s primary defender will be Dillon Brooks, one of the most underrated defensive wings in the league. DeRozan averaged 15.7 PPG in three meetings with Memphis this season.
A narrative bet is Ja Morant over 20.5 points. Morant was terrible in the season finale against the Warriors, shooting 7-for-21 (1-of-6 from 3), and in front of a large TV audience, the big takeaway was, "He can’t shoot." This is factually correct, as he shot 30% from deep this season.
But in an up-tempo, high game total (222.5) and in a bounce-back spot, Morant should have a big game. The Grizzlies topped 130 points nine times this season.
Los Angeles Lakers -5.5 vs. Golden State Warriors
Interesting line movement on this one, with the Warriors opening as 7.5-point underdogs. That was quickly bet down to 4.5, and money Wednesday morning on the Lakers has pushed it back up to 5.5.
As exciting as the prospect of LeBron vs. Curry is, betting this game is a challenge because both teams are essentially "new." The Lakers' starting lineup ranks 14th among all lineups the team has played this season. Between injuries to Anthony Davis and LeBron, plus the addition of Andre Drummond, the familiarity can’t possibly be there.
Meanwhile, the Warriors suffered injuries to two occasional starters, rookie James Wiseman and Kelly Oubre, and actually got better, winning eight of nine to end the season. Read nothing into the regular-season results between these two teams.
The Lakers can throw a bevy of length and quickness at Curry – Alex Caruso, THT, KCP and Dennis Schroder will all have a crack. Curry’s pick-and-roll with Draymond Green is lethal, but Anthony Davis is an elite defender/shot-blocker, and Frank Vogel wouldn’t dare put Drummond or Marc Gasol near Draymond.
Staples Center has been a house of horrors for the greatest shooter in NBA history. In his past eight there against the Lakers, Curry is shooting 20.8% (16-for-77) from deep.
With two top-10 defensive teams facing off – the Lakers are first and the Warriors fifth – you might want to take the under, but I’m not touching it, given all the 3-pointers that will be hoisted. There was value on the Lakers at -4.5, but I like it less at -5.5.
One thing I feel confident about: Golden State's lack of playoff experience after Curry, Green and Kevon Looney will hurt the team if the game is close in the fourth quarter.
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.
