Has home-court advantage returned with fans back? It's complicated
By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Booking sports bets during the COVID-19 pandemic was extremely difficult for the guys and gals behind the betting counter.
Breaking COVID-related news dictated several line moves over the past year, especially when it came to a quarterback being a late scratch or multiple players testing positive, a la Ohio State having 22 football players ruled ineligible for the Big Ten Championship.
But as life slowly returns to normal around the country, another new challenge has arisen for the bookmakers: Home court and home ice are a moving target in the NBA and NHL playoffs.
"Traditionally, you would say home court is worth three points in basketball on average," US Bookmaking director of operations Robert Walker told FOX Sports. "That’s clearly not the case anymore. It’s probably worth two points in some places and four points at other places. The number can be even bigger in college basketball. Hockey could be anywhere from 20 to 30 cents on average."
The thing is, home courts are not equal at this point in time due to varying state-by-state restrictions. Take the recent first-round series between the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers. The Suns played to an almost full arena in the state of Arizona, while the Lakers were around 30% capacity at Staples Center in California.
It wasn’t exactly a fair shake for the Lakers.
"You could argue that it’s pretty unfair," Walker opined. "Phoenix was almost at full capacity for the whole series, and Los Angeles had, like, 7,500 fans. It definitely diminishes the home-court advantage. I’m just not smart enough to know how to exactly quantify how much it’s worth. It’s a really interesting conversation. Generally, we stick to market numbers in the NBA, and we move based on the bets we get."
There’s an even more unfair advantage looming in the Stanley Cup playoffs. The winner of the Colorado Avalanche-Vegas Golden Knights series will face the winner of the Montreal Canadiens-Winnipeg Jets series.
Vegas and Colorado are playing to near-capacity crowds, while Montreal let 2,500 fans into a playoff game last week after Quebec loosened its rules and regulations.
Assuming the Avalanche and Canadiens meet in the next round, Colorado will have more than 17,000 fans at home, compared to the 2,500 allowed in Montreal.
I would argue that Colorado should be a near three-dollar (-300) series favorite against Montreal, given the circumstances. The Avalanche are the most complete team in hockey, they’ll host Game 7, and their arena will have almost 15,000 more fans.
If the Avs open -225 or -250 in the next round, I will fire accordingly.
"If I’m a fan of one of the Canadian teams, I’m up in arms," Walker exclaimed. "It seems so patently unfair. How can you allow that to happen?"
It's a valid question for NHL commissioner Gary Bettman. Why should a team such as Montreal be punished for something that is completely out of its control?
"We’re definitely in uncharted territory, but the bettors are as well," Walker said. "But we adjust very quickly behind the counter. It won’t take us long to get to the right number. Maybe we over-adjust to get back to the means.
"It’s truly an unprecedented time. And it’s all so arbitrary. On May 31, you can be at 20% capacity with masks, but on June 1, you can pack the arena, and masks are optional. They’re making it up the best they can, but nobody really knows."
Speaking of new challenges, Walker and his bookmaking buddies struggled with the uncertainty surrounding star players in the NBA regular season.
"This year was really rough, mostly because of all the players sitting out and more injuries than I can ever remember," he said. "You don’t know who’s in or out almost daily now. And I’m talking about marquee players on marquee teams.
"We never knew when guys like Anthony Davis or James Harden were going to play. It’s been a very difficult year."
There’s a sizable ripple effect in player prop markets when a superstar doesn’t play. A bookmaker can be hung out to dry when they line Kyrie Irving’s point prop at O/U 23.5, then Harden gets ruled out an hour before the game.
Irving’s shot volume will obviously increase, and his point prop could rise all the way to 26.5. If somebody somewhere gets intel earlier in the day that Harden isn’t going to play, that’s actionable information that allows a person to get ahead of the house.
A bettor could blast "over" 23.5 and then come back on "under" 26.5 to set up a three-point middle on 24, 25 and 26 points. That’s the nuts.
"All the marquee players sitting out in this compressed season made it really tough to make player props," Walker explained. "LeBron’s projected points are way higher if Anthony Davis is out. Same thing with the Nets. If [James] Harden is out, it impacts the volume for Irving and [Kevin] Durant, and their numbers go way up."
Davis’ status really made things tough on the books after he strained his groin in the Lakers’ Game 4 home loss to the Suns.
"What a tough series that was to line," Walker cracked. "The Lakers are definitely a public team, and LeBron carries so much weight. But things really opened up for the Suns when Anthony Davis got hurt and his status was unknown. As a bookmaker, ‘game-time decision’ doesn’t help you. The line pretty much told the story in Games 5 and 6.
"The Lakers were a two-point favorite in Game 6 at home. That tells you that Davis isn’t playing and the Lakers have zero home-court advantage."
As the NBA and NHL postseasons trek through the month of July, restrictions will undoubtedly lessen across the country. Eventually, we’ll be back to 100% capacity everywhere.
Until that point, though, the guessing game continues, and home court and home ice remain moving targets.
"I don’t know if the bettor has that much more of an advantage over us," Walker admitted. "We’re all kind of guessing."
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
