How Celtics could ride dynamic duo, elite defense to NBA Finals
By Yaron Weitzman
FOX Sports NBA Writer
On Jan. 7, the Celtics were 18-21 and in 11th place in the Eastern Conference. Not only that, but they were just two months removed from Marcus Smart calling out his teammates after blowing a 19-point lead to the Chicago Bulls.
"Every team knows we’re trying to go to Jayson [Tatum] and Jaylen [Brown]," Smart told reporters in early November. "Every team is programmed and studied to stop Jayson and Jaylen. I think everybody’s scouting report is to make those guys pass the ball. They don’t want to pass the ball."
Well, here we are, in early March, and the Celtics have completely turned their season around. They’ve won 19 of their past 25 games — the best winning percentage in the league over that span — and outscored opponents by 13 points per 100 possessions, nearly double the mark of the second-best Phoenix Suns.
Not only are the Celtics an impressive 37-27 and, as of Thursday, just three games back of the Bulls for the second-best record in the East, but they also own the conference’s best net rating.
Why the Celtics should be feared by the rest of the NBA
The Celtics have emerged as championship contenders. Here are the five reasons they’ve been able to do so.
1. Starting lineup dominance
The Celtics have the best starting lineup in the NBA. This is not hyperbole or a subjective opinion but statistically true. The five-man group of Tatum, Brown, Al Horford, Smart and Robert Williams III have played 325 minutes together. In that span, they’ve outscored opponents by a ridiculous 27 points per 100 possessions, by far the most among any group that has played at least 200 minutes.
2. Lockdown D
The Celtics own the league’s second-best defensive rating, and it's their defense that has been the catalyst for this turnaround. Since Jan. 1 — a 28-game sample — the Celtics have held opponents to 102.3 points per 100 possessions, which basically means they’re turning every team into the Oklahoma City Thunder, owners of the league’s worst offensive rating.
"It’s suffocating at times, with our size and versatility," Boston coach Ime Udoka said of his team's defense after the Celtics held the Orlando Magic to a minuscule 83 points in early February. "We’ve got big wings, our bigs, and obviously a pit bull for a point guard. There’s no real weakness out there, nobody to pick on, which is the case with other teams sometimes."
The Celtics have done this by riding a simple yet complex scheme: They switch on screens more than any other team in the NBA (40% of the time, according to ESPN’s Kirk Goldsberry). This keeps them out of rotation and forces opponents to attack them one-on-one, a tough task, considering the Celtics have plus size or speed at every position.
There’s a reason they’ve forced the most long 2-pointers and have allowed the third-fewest shots at the rim, according to Cleaning the Glass.
And if we’re going to talk about the defense, we need to discuss the backbone of that unit …
3. The emergence of time lord
It’s not that Robert Williams III, aka Time Lord (you can read about the origin of the nickname here), is more important to the Celtics than either of the team's foundational stars. But I’m mentioning him first because his emergence as a Defensive Player of the Year-caliber stopper might just be the sort of development that can propel this group to the Finals.
Williams is the backbone of the Celtics' defense, and his versatility is the primary reason their scheme has thrived. Whereas most teams would keep a player such as Williams — 6-foot-9 with a 7-foot-6 wingspan and impeccable timing at the rim — glued to opposing centers, the Celtics over the past couple of months have elected to use Time Lord in a different way. He begins defensive possessions matched up with the opponent’s weakest shooter, meaning he doesn’t get dragged into pick and rolls. He’s basically defending half as many screens as he was earlier this season. This allows him to remain within closing distance of the paint.
Williams has essentially become a free safety. He’s like the NBA’s Ed Reed. Case in point:
Williams is among the league leaders in blocks (2.2 per game; Rudy Gobert leads the NBA with 2.3), and opponents have finished just 52% of their shots at the rim with him in the vicinity, according to data from Second Spectrum, one of the league’s stingiest marks.
4. The strength of J&J
Of course, we can’t talk about the Celtics without mentioning their (still young, incredibly) dynamic duo of Tatum and Brown.
Remember early in the season when there was all this talk about whether the Celtics should break the duo up? So much so that Tatum addressed it during a podcast with JJ Redick?
It’s safe to say that ship has sailed. Neither Tatum nor Brown is perfect. The ball still sticks in their hands for too long, which is one reason why the Celtics are just 18th in offense. Neither player does enough creating for others, which has also contributed to the team’s clunky offense. So has the fact that both have struggled with their shooting (Tatum has hit just 32.9% of his deep looks; Brown just 34.8%).
However: Both remain lockdown — and willing — defenders. And elite shot-makers. And both have made small strides in their offensive games.
Brown is averaging a career best 4.9 assists per 100 possessions, to go along with 23.2 points per game. Tatum has reached the point where he’s good enough to carry an offense all by himself. Not only is he ninth in the NBA in scoring, at 25.9 points per game, but when he’s on the court, the Celtics score at a rate better than the seventh-ranked Miami Heat. When he sits, Boston is right in line with the 28th-ranked Magic.
5. Newfound depth
The Celtics’ starting five is fantastic, but the blossoming of one reserve and the addition of another have transformed their bench into a strength, too.
Since entering the NBA in 2019, Grant Williams has proven himself to be a solid defender and savvy offensive player. But he had limitations. He’s not very athletic and was never a very good shooter. It was difficult to keep him on the floor.
The athleticism hasn’t changed, but the shooting certainly has. Williams has drilled 43.8% of his triples this season, the league’s third-best mark. He’s letting the ball fly more frequently and with confidence, even hunting looks late in games as a release valve for a doubled star.
Plus, the fact that he’s a stout 6-foot-6 with swift feet means he’s a perfect fit for the Celtics’ switch-happy defense. That he’s now hitting shots means he should be able to give the Celtics strong minutes come playoff time.
The same can be said for the recently acquired Derrick White, who came over from the San Antonio Spurs in a deadline deal in exchange for Josh Richardson, Romeo Langford and a future first-round pick. White is not a good shooter, but he’s bouncy and decisive and has injected some verve into the Celtics’ occasionally stagnant offensive attack.
He’s also a big guard and a brilliant weak-side defender. Statistically, he’s actually one of the league’s best. Opposing shooters have converted only 50.6% of their looks at the rim with White nearby, the sixth-best mark in the league and a ridiculous number for a guard (no other guard has held opponents below 63%).
Boston might be thin behind those two reserves, but if the team's top seven players are healthy down the stretch, the Celtics are going to be a team no one wants to face. Elite defense and tough shot-making is a difficult combination to beat come playoff time — and one that just might be enough to lift the Celtics into the NBA Finals.
Yaron Weitzman is an NBA writer for FOX Sports and the author of "Tanking to the Top: The Philadelphia 76ers and the Most Audacious Process in the History of Professional Sports." Follow him on Twitter @YaronWeitzman.
