How Doc Rivers can give the Clippers a chance to win without Chris Paul
It goes without saying that the Clippers' playoff hopes took a giant, humongous, yuge hit Monday night when Chris Paul broke his right hand in LA's Game 4 loss to the Blazers.
How big is yet to be determined, but the numbers don't look good, at all.
For roughly 24 hours, the Clippers were imagining a second-round showdown with the Golden State Warriors that they could win. Stephen Curry was out, the Clippers new-look offense was showing positive signs — they had a chance to take down the greatest regular-season game of all time.
But without Paul, the evidence says that the Clippers are going to have a hard time taking two of three from the Blazers, much less four from the Warriors, with or without Curry.
Austin Rivers is the likely option to replace Paul in the Clippers' starting lineup for Wednesday's Game 5 (7 p.m., Prime Ticket) and that should hardly inspire confidence.
The Clippers averaged less than a point per possession (99 offensive rating) when Austin Rivers was on the court this season without Chris Paul. Only three teams failed to score a point per possession in the NBA this season — the Sixers, Suns, and Lakers.
Add in the fact that Blake Griffin is considered is out for the remainder of the playoffs, thanks to an aggravation of his injured quad, and J.J. Redick's diminished impact thanks to a bruised left heel that is "not going to go away," and the Clippers' outlook looks even more gloomy.
Unless coach Doc Rivers makes a dramatic change to his rotations, the three players who will presumably be in the starting lineup Wednesday are Austin Rivers, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, and DeAndre Jordan.
That three-man unit, without Paul on the court, has an offensive rating of 83 (that's 0.83 points per possession, which, is really, really bad) and while the defensive rating is a solid 96, that's still a net minus-13.
That unit can be playing with Redick and Jamal Crawford, but if that three-man core plays significant periods of time without Paul, the Clippers aren't a viable playoff team, much less one that can win a series.
The only way to garner some value from the Clippers' short-staffed lineup is to bench Mbah a Moute, whose inability to contribute on offense might have been balanced out by CP3's two-man game prowess. With Rivers, Mbah a Moute is a killer, as the two-man pairing posted a minus-13 rating (92 offensive rating) this season.
Austin Rivers is a defensive liability, and Doc Rivers might feel that Mbah a Moute can balance out those liabilities, but that would be a mistake. In fact, if you take Mbah a Moute off the court, the two-man pairing of Rivers and DeAndre Jordan have a net positive rating of four because of a strong 112 offensive rating (1.12 points per possession.)
Without Paul and Mbah a Moute on the court, the Clippers are a net-one team (99 offensive rating, 100 defensive rating.) It's not good, but it's the best chance this team has.
Doc Rivers received three votes in this year's Coach of the Year balloting. We're about to find out if he deserved them.
Update: Blake Griffin was also ruled out for the remainder of the playoffs Tuesday. The post has been edited to reflect Griffin's status.
