Nets vs. Bucks Game 7: Why you should bet on Brooklyn to advance
By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
For as long as I can remember, riding a superstar who knows how to win big basketball games has been the right move when predicting Game 7 of an NBA playoff series.
So my decision in Saturday night’s series finale between the Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks is rather easy. I’m putting my trust in Kevin Durant to finish the job on Flatbush and shut Milwaukee’s lights out.
If pressure bursts pipes, then Durant is the diamond. Durant-led teams are 3-1 all time in Game 7s, in which he averages 33 points on 55% shooting, seven boards and three assists. If you think he’s playing less than 40 minutes tonight, you haven't been paying attention.
I’m also waiting for regular-season superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo and regular-season wizard Mike Budenholzer to turn into pumpkins. Giannis bricked his way to a 16-point loss at Boston in Game 7 of a first-round series three years ago. Coach Bud continues to coach like a guy who picks up bet slips off the floor at a sportsbook.
Until those two prove to me that they can lead the Bucks to victory in a meaningful game, I refuse to back them at the betting window. FOX Bet is currently dealing Brooklyn as a 1.5-point favorite, with a total of 216.
The market opened with Milwaukee as a short road favorite late Thursday night, thanks to the Bucks ripping off a 14-0 fourth-quarter run to win Game 6 and even the series 3-3.
It didn’t take long, though, for Nets money to correct the market and swing Brooklyn to the favorite on its home floor. After all, the home team has won every game in the series, and I don’t expect that to change now.
Brooklyn’s supporting cast has played much better at the Barclays Center because that’s what supporting casts do in the playoffs. Jeff Green and Blake Griffin combined for 44 points in Game 5 at home and only 17 in Game 6 on the road. I expect them both to be much better tonight.
Meanwhile, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday combined for 59 points in Game 6 in the Land of Cheese. I will gladly short that duo in a must-win Game 7.
James Harden’s hamstring appears to be progressing just fine, as he has played 40 minutes in the past two games since returning from injury. Simply having him on the floor with the ball in his hands should prove to have a calming effect for this Brooklyn bunch.
I feel pretty damn good about a Brooklyn win, but I’m still going to protect myself from being hooked. There’s no way I’m laying 1.5 points with the favorite in a game such as this. If the Nets win 99-98, I’ll never forgive myself. Let’s take a slightly worse payout for our money and ride the Brooklyn moneyline so that we cash our bet as long as the Nets win outright.
Count me in on Durantula and the Nets (-125; bet $10 to win $18 total) to survive in Game 7.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
