National Basketball Association

How to bet Warriors-Lakers: Steph Curry's scoring over is your best bet

Updated May. 19, 2021 7:56 p.m. ET

share

facebookxredditlink

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Wednesday night’s NBA play-in game between the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors is going to be one of the highest bet basketball games of the entire season.

It has all the ingredients for a blockbuster behind the counter: big brands, popular teams, superstar players and a do-or-die situation. Plus, it’s the last game of the night, so all the parlays will roll into it.

And who doesn’t want to bet on LeBron James versus Steph Curry in a one-off?

"The bettors love drama," South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews told me. "And drama drives the dollars. This is a very dramatic play-in game. You’ve got LeBron, who is obviously one of the best players ever. And over the last 10 years, Steph Curry has carved out his own space amongst the game’s greatest.

"There’s a lot of history between those two guys, and it’s just a huge game for them both for a lot of reasons. I think we’ll write a ton of business on it."

In case you were wondering, there are more than 250 ways to bet the game. FOX Bet is currently dealing the Lakers as 5.5-point favorites, while Los Angeles is -225 to win and Golden State is +175. The total over/under for scoring in the game is 218.5 points.

Then there are the player props. Personally, I can’t get enough Curry. He is a cold-blooded chucker who always gets the necessary volume to go "Over" any of his point props. In Curry’s past 11 games, he launched 153 3-pointers (15.9 3PA per game).

Obviously, makes matter more than attempts, but it’s not like Curry is going to miss his first four shots and stop shooting. He’ll keep going and going and going. And once he heats up, he can easily drop 40 on your head.

"You automatically start in the low 30s with Curry," Andrews said. "That’s not enough, so you tack on a bucket or two. He’s been on fire lately. Maybe I’ll put up how many 3s he makes. Off the top of my head, you probably start that number at 6.5 or so."

(FOX Bet has Curry’s 3-pointers prop at over/under 5.5, with a decently heavy price on the over at -175. That means if you bet on Curry to make six 3-pointers or more and go over 5.5, a $10 wager brings back $15.71 total.)

"With the props, you try and put up a number that gets good two-way action," Andrews said. "I’m trying to write 50/50 money and break even, earn a little bit of juice for the house. That’s all."

Curry’s point prop tonight is over/under 36.5. That’s a pretty high number; there’s also a decent chance it isn't high enough – and I love Curry to score 37 points or more and hit the over. Over those aforementioned 11 games, Curry averaged 35.9 points, but it’s very tough to ignore his ceiling. He racked up 41, 46 and 49 points in three of those contests.

Curry rises to another level when the lights are brightest. And I really don’t think LeBron can stick with Steph at this point in his career if Frank Vogel decides to go that route later in the game. The Lakers would be wise to let Steph eat and try to limit everybody else.

Shannon Sharpe: Steph Curry's Warriors are a dangerous matchup for LeBron & Lakers | UNDISPUTED

Shannon Sharpe explains why Steph Curry is such a dangerous matchup for the Lakers – and LeBron James specifically.

As for Los Angeles, Andrews has found himself rooting against the Lakers more than usual the past couple of years. It’s far from a new problem, though, because of all the Lakers fans scattered around Las Vegas who seem to bet with their hearts. And it’s a pretty easy trip in from L.A. to get some cash down.

All that Laker money can be relentless for a bookmaker.

"We were just talking the other day about how we try to stay as high as the market will allow us on the Lakers," Andrews explained. "As high as we went [with the point spread] in their game over the weekend, people kept laying us the number. We were at -8 when the market was -7.5. They still laid us the 8. You go to 8.5, the market catches up, they lay us the 8.5, so we go to 9."

"It’s frustrating sometimes because we just can’t get off the position. You wait for money to show for the other side, and sometimes it never shows."

Which team is the house rooting for?

"Usually we’re rooting against the Lakers, but tonight’s game is a weird one," Andrews explained. "Steph Curry garners a lot of popularity, too, especially the way he’s played over the last month. There’s a long way to go to figure out what we’ll need. I know most of the moneyline parlays will have L.A.

"But going forward, I want the Lakers to have a fairly deep run in the playoffs. I just hope they don’t cover a lot of the numbers."

Andrews didn’t seem to have much opposition when I told him that I was going to write about how much I loved Curry’s "Over" for points. He didn’t sound like he was all that interested in shorting the best shooter of all time.

Yeah … I said it. Best of all time.

"It’s either him or Larry Bird," Andrews opined. "When Bird put it up, you figured it was going in. You think the same thing with Steph. I would love to see Bird in this day and age. He would really excel with the way the game is officiated.

"Steph is a better pure shooter. His range is unbelievable. You gotta pick the guy up at half court. And he can still go by you or come off a high screen and make you pay. I’ve never seen anything like it."

It was only fitting to wrap our conversation with Andrews by making a line on something. So I hit him with a big hypothetical: Bird vs. Curry in a 3-point contest in their primes. Who’s the favorite?

"Man, oh, man," Andrews uttered before a pause. "I guess Steph would be a slight favorite. Minus a quarter maybe."

"You’re going to give me Bird as a dog?" I retorted.

"You’re going to give me Steph as a dog?" Andrews cracked back. "That’s a tough one. I wish we had a time machine for that one."

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

share

Get more from National Basketball Association Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more

in this topic

National Basketball Association

Golden State Warriors

Los Angeles Lakers

Stephen Curry

LeBron James

Sam Panayotovich