How Would the Suns Look With DeMarcus Cousins?
According to local sources there is a chance that the Phoenix Suns may be working on a blockbuster trade for DeMarcus Cousins.
Yesterday John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports broke huge news that the Phoenix Suns and Sacramento Kings have been engaging in conversations with regards to a swap centered around superstar DeMarcus Cousins. If you had an opportunity to listen to his show he reiterated on several occasions that the two teams were merely in the discussion-stage and nothing was imminent yet.
— John Gambadoro (@Gambo987) January 31, 2017
However the fact that he and co-host Dave Burns were willing to spend a majority of their show on the topic means that Gambo was confident in the validity of the rumor and wanted to brace Suns fans. Such a move would be a very big and exciting. However, there is still a risk that Demarcus Cousins’ well-documented emotional issues which have plagued both he and his current franchise for much of his career would be carried over into Phoenix.
For the sake of argument though, let us look through the looking glass at the next three and a half seasons – what to expect and what could happen – and try to predict what series of events might take place under a DeMarcus Cousins to the Phoenix Suns scenario:
The Rest of the 2016-17 Season
@Gambo987 @Burnsy987 @BurnsAndGambo Cousins could be like Barkley: 4yrs together might be very well worth the risk/investment.
— Valley of the Suns (@ValleyoftheSuns) January 31, 2017
According to ESPN Trade Machine, a contractual trade of DeMarcus Cousins for Alex Len and T.J. Warren does work. Because of the space the Suns have left under the cap at the moment, they can take on a contract such as Cousins’ without having to match-up to or equal the $16.9M he is currently earning in 2016-17.
However, as was discussed on the radio show, two decent young players and potentially two first round picks still seems to be a little shy of what Sacramento could potentially receive from other teams. Therefore, I am adding Brandon Knight to this trade for one specific reason: He boosts the talent return value for Sacramento and the Suns are trying to trade him anyway. Thus by moving him for Cousins for the purposes of at least this discussion we can see what the Suns’ roster might look like post-trade deadline:
PG – Eric Bledsoe, Tyler Ulis
SG – Devin Booker, Leandro Barbosa
SF – P.J. Tucker, Jared Dudley
PF – Marquese Chris, Dragan Bender
C – DeMarcus Cousins, Tyson Chandler
The starting lineup in this scenario is pretty darned impressive offensively with three scorers capable of torching the opponent at anytime. Defensively the base capability will remain similar, but when you include rotations where Cousins slides to the four and Chandler is inserted at the five, if nothing else, teams had better ignore the offensive rebound because the combination of Chandler and Cousins will be very difficult to rebound over.
The Trade Machine gives the Suns a +8 win boost, but that is extrapolated over an entire season. Although it is safe to expect learning pains there will be a bit of a boost over the final 25 games. Let’s say the Suns are 17-40 at the trade deadline. With 25 games remaining post deadline, let us also assume the Suns can win 40% of those games and finish the season 27-55. Very ugly on paper, but with Cousins now on the roster, a significant step up from where they may have been without him.
2017-18 Season
Nov 13, 2016; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Orlando Magic forward Serge Ibaka (7) reacts after a play against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the third quarter at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
With Len and presumably Knight off the roster, the Suns will still have some serious cap space to spend on possibly extending P.J. Tucker, as well as adding more pieces around the core of Bledsoe, Booker, and Cousins. They might also trade Jared Dudley as well freeing even more cap space, sending the franchise into the 2017-18 spending season with a lot of money to blow, and now a very talented, young core to build around. Most importantly, they do not have their first round pick as it was part of the Cousins deal, so adding through the draft will be next to impossible.
In this scenario it is not entirely unfair nor unreasonable to compare this particular Suns team to the Seattle Seahawks while Russell Wilson was under his rookie contract. The Seahawks were not only able to add talent because Wilson was so far outperforming his contract, but they – for a time – were able to re-sign their best players on defense without killing their cap. The same situation could apply for the Suns and give them the opportunity to adevelop to their core with the addition of Cousins and his soon to be massive contract.
Because of this, I am going to make a very bold prediction: The Phoenix Suns will sign Serge Ibaka.
Serge would fit right in to what the Suns would both need and hope to accomplish. Offensively Ibaka has evolved into a nice stretch four who shoots well from the outside and does not need to score 20 points to be productive. Offensively, stretching the floor helps create space for Cousins and the guards, and having a lineup where literally all five starters can drop back for a three would be deadly.
Defensively of course, Ibaka is one of the best. No longer the 3+ blocks per game player he once was, his 1.6 per game average in 2016-17 would still be a very nice addition to the defensive game plan. He is a decent rebounder averaging between 6-8 per season in his career, and has the length and quickness to guard anywhere from small forward to the center.
The lineups would look a little like this:
PG – Eric Bledsoe, Tyler Ulis
SG – Devin Booker, Leandro Barbosa
SF – P.J. Tucker, Possibly a New Backup SG/SF
PF – Serge Ibaka, Marquese Chris, Dragan Bender
C – DeMarcus Cousins, Tyson Chandler
An Ibaka signing is entirely hinged upon whether or not he is traded by the Orlando Magic before the 2017 trade deadline to a team that he would want to re-sign with, and if not, whether or not he wants to stay with the Magic long-term. Granted, the Magic can offer a larger max offer, but he is an unrestricted free agent. And, unless another team comes along with a better opportunity to begin winning right away, then Phoenix might be a very interesting option for him.
Even if the Suns do not sign Ibaka, they will have an opportunity to make a splash in free agency with plenty of cap space and the core to use at the heart of their sales pitch. Additionally, after two seasons of less than 30 wins, there is a very real chance that the Suns could put together an above .500 team, if not above 50 wins in one off season. Very enticing for free agents who want to win now.
A major key in the rebuild is that all three core players will be under contracts signed before the cap exploded. For 2017-18 Cousins will *only* make $18.9M; Eric Bledsoe will only make $14.5M; and most importantly, Devin Booker will earn a paltry by comparison, $2.3M. Bringing in another big named free agent immediately will be very important if the Suns want to compete right away since for 2017-18 they will have significant room to wiggle.
On the court, the onus of personality coagulation will fall squarely on the shoulders of Head Coach Earl Watson. His outside-the-box coaching and leadership strategies may very well be what the doctor ordered for DeMarcus Cousins. The speculation is that he needs several alpha-level authority figures to guide and mentor him, essentially putting his ego in place. If that is the case, and the Suns do not have that sort of organizational environment, than the DeMarcus Cousins experiment could be an abject failure.
However, the Suns have placed a lot of emphasis on Watson’s fundamental idea of love, something that in the NBA Cousins has never received. Could Cousins be Watson’s ideal social experiment? Could Watson be exactly who Cousins needs to straighten him up?
Presuming the Cousins-experiment works, the team could easily be looking at a 44 to 54 win season, the higher end putting them in contention for at least home court advantage in the first round. What, if any, moves are made during the regular season would surely be contingent upon if the Suns are moving in the right direction and want to continue to improve, or if Cousins in purple in orange is quickly proving to be a failure.
Either way the Suns almost undoubtedly make their way into the postseason tournament and depending on a favorable match-up or not, are ousted in the Semi Finals at the latest. A success, though leaving Suns fans wanting more.
2018-19
Mar 25, 2016; Sacramento, CA, USA; Sacramento Kings center DeMarcus Cousins (15) smiles with Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) after Booker fouled Cousins on a shot during the second quarter at Sleep Train Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
By the summer of 2018-19 Suns management knows exactly what they have – a successful team needing to continue to improve, or a team destined to blow up quickly and start over.
Hopefully the Suns are looking toward a Championship run because this is the year when things start to get a little financially sticky.
By 2018-19 DeMarcus Cousins is in the first year of his massive contract extension, one that will pay him around $30M a season. Devin Booker is in the final year of his rookie contract – a team option – for about $3.3M. Following the season he will undoubtedly demand near $20M, around seven times what he made in 2018-19. Eric Bledsoe will be in the final year of his cap-friendly $70M contract and will make $15M. If they have Ibaka or another player of similar position and skill, their cap space will be shrinking, though the Suns will retain some flexibility.
If Tyson Chandler is held throughout the entire 2017-18 season, he too will be in a contract year
earning near $13.6M. However, at age 36, one can presume that as a backup his role and skill will be that of diminishing return and will be more easily expendable should the Suns want to make a run at several role players to fill in the roster.
Yet there is a good chance the Suns want to allow Tyson to finish up his contract in Phoenix and remain Cousins’ backup center and mentor, in which case his contract is off the books following the season anyway so there shouldn’t be too much pressure to move him. Should Chandler remain healthy, he will still be a formidable backup and provide quality depth in the front court at a reasonable rate. There is no guarantee that he could fill in successfully for any long stretches should Cousins’ go down to injury, but as a backup would be superior to anyone else the Suns could find in both experience, leadership, and character.
The regular season would probably go very similarly to the year before: The Suns would be a 50+ win team and with the growth of their youth they would be a solid contender against any Western Conference foes, although certainly no guarantee that they would be able to knock off San Antonio or Golden State in the playoffs.
As a 52 to 57 win team the Suns would probably find themselves in a first round home-court playoff situation, and at the higher end of the projection have the opportunity at home-court in the second round as well.
Much like the Phoenix Suns against the Los Angeles Lakers of the late 80s, the 2018-19 Suns would probably still be too young to get past the more experienced upper-echelon teams in the Western Conference. Should they be able to find a path to the Conference Finals, it would still be hard to imagine that they would get by the Golden State Warriors. Again, a little bit of a disappointing outcome, and yet, if the Suns were to trade for Cousins, wouldn’t we all be psyched for the chance at a Western Conference Finals bid in just two short seasons?
Heading into the 2019 offseason, DeMarcus has had two full seasons under his belt in Phoenix. He will have tasted playoff success twice – and playoff failure twice. Will this be a motivating factor to Cousins to remain on the up-and-up? In reality he has never even sniffed 50 wins and doesn’t know postseason success since his single season in Kentucky. Continuing to play with friend and co-alum Eric Bledsoe, plus participating in a winning environment built on a franchise with a winning culture, the hope is, of course, that Cousins recognizes the fragility and specialness of this and not only does not want to lose it, but craves more.
2019-20
Aug 1, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; From the bench, United States center Demarcus Cousins (12) looks on as he plays against Nigeria during an exhibition basketball game at Toyota Center. United States won 110 to 66. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports
Predicting even to this point in the future is about as difficult as picking accurate lottery numbers. Yet, there is still one particular thing that we can project out this far and know will be an issue: Contracts.
DeMarcus Cousins will be earning above $30M and still only be 29 years old. If he is happy and the team is successful, he will be worth every penny.
Eric Bledsoe will need a contract extension. If he is healthy and at least hovering around the output of the 2016-17 season, at 30 years old he could still garner a five-year deal that will push the $20M mark per season easy, something the Suns would be silly not to work out.
Devin Booker will be receiving his first major contract extension as a pro. If he buds into the superstar he projects to be, it seems safe to say that unless he receives a max contract, in his first season of the deal he will earn between $20-23M and by the end will be up near the $27M area.
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If the Suns did sign Serge Ibaka he will likely still be earning between $15-19M, all told meaning the Suns could allocate near $85 for their core group.
Should Marquese Chriss and Dragan Bender still be on the roster and improving, they will remain as bargain-basement depth pieces that will allow the Suns to retain the aforementioned four players for at least one more season.
In a Mike D’Antoni-era system those six names plus one backup point guard would really be all he would need to try and outrun the opposition. Presumably, however, Earl Watson will want to utilize other pieces that would allow Phoenix to have sufficient depth. Unfortunately these players that are impossible to project this far out or whether they should come via trade, free agency, or the draft.
However, the 2019-2020 team may very well be one that if the DeMarcus Cousins trade both goes through and is successful on and off the court, would be a true Championship contender.
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One thing must not be over-stated: there are an innumerable amount of variables that cannot be projected in this scenario. But should the next three and a half seasons all play out according to this projection, the Suns will be set up very nicely if come trade deadline 2017, they are able to pull the trigger on a trade for superstar center DeMarcus Cousins.
