Injuries to Griffin and Capela Opens Door in West - Can Thunder seize opportunity
With injuries to key Western Conference players the OKC Thunder need to seize the opportunity to move up the ladder.
Entering week 9 of of NBA activity the Oklahoma City Thunder rank seventh in the West. Following the heartbreaking loss to Atlanta, the Thunder are 8 games behind first place Golden State Warriors. More important, is the battle waging between the teams ranked 3 through 8. Clearly the Warriors and Spurs have separated themselves, but the battle for the next tier of teams has been highly competitive.
With Victor Oladipo out the past 4 games due to injury the OKC Thunder experienced first hand how one player can effect the bottom line. In those games the Thunder have gone 1-3.
So learning two Western rivals will be without core contributors for a significant period had me sitting up and taking notice. Specifically, Blake Griffin and Clint Capela will be out for a minimum of 3 and 6 weeks respectively.
Blake Griffin – Los Angeles Clippers :
Injury has long been part of the territory for Blake Griffin over the course of his six pro seasons. Griffin’s injury woes began the season he was drafted when he broke his knee cap in the final preseason game causing him to miss the entirely of 2009-10. When he returned in 2010 for his actual rookie season it marked the only time in his career he played all 82 games.
By far, last season was Griffin’s worst as he suffered through a myriad of injuries (some self induced), playing in just 35 regular season games. Injury has also hampered Griffin’s post season play. This past post season the quad injury that plagued him all year flared up in the first round.
As per ESPN Griffin is set to undergo laser arthroscopic surgery which could keep him out anywhere from 3 to 6 weeks:
Blake Griffin will have arthroscopic knee surgery and is expected to miss three to six weeks, the team announced Monday.
Griffin will have the procedure to remove loose bodies from his right knee, according to the team. He missed a game last weekend because of a sore right knee but had been playing through it since the issue began.
So, it’s not necessarily surprising to hear Griffin will miss time again. Nor will the Clippers be that concerned given they weathered the storm last season posting a 31-16 record while Griffin was out. The question is can this Clippers team repeat that success?
Schedule wise they don’t have the toughest timetable but they will play 7 back to back sets through to the start of March. Where the Clippers mettle will be tested is the period of games from February 2 to March 6 when they face 14 teams in a row (with 3 back to back sets) who boast plus .500 records. If Griffin remains out past the 3 week time frame this part of the schedule could play a role in their placement.
The main thing to watch is who Doc Rivers will use to make up for 21.2 points, 8.8 rebounds and 0.5 blocks Griffin is averaging. Last year Paul Pierce provided the spark, but he’s played in just 7 games this season and it sure looks like father time has caught up to him. If Doc uses Marreese Speights then that could throw off the bench unit which is far from spectacular to begin with.
Clint Capela – Houston Rockets:
Houston fans will no doubt remember the December 18, game versus the Minnesota Timberwolves. At 10:16 of the third quarter Clint Capela and Karl-Anthony Towns bumped legs in what looked like a straight forward paint altercation. As it turned out, this incident was far from typical. Capela was helped from the court in what reporters were terming a leg contusion. Following further tests it was determined the Center has a broken fibula and will be lost to the Rockets for 4 to 6 weeks.
Though I won’t discount the 10-game win streak the Rockets have amassed, the truth is they’ve benefited from an extremely soft schedule. Digging into those 10 games just 3 teams have a plus .500 record. Of those wins, two games were won by a total of 4 points (OKC: 3, Celtics 1) and the other took overtime to decide (Warriors). The other 7 teams in this win streak boast a record of: 64-131. Certainly not a trying schedule.
Since Capela will miss anywhere from 4 to 6 weeks the Rockets will have to rely upon Nene Hilario, Montrezl Harrell, and Kyle Wiltjer. Even Ryan Anderson may see time at center in a small ball line-up that Mike D’Antoni had been experimenting with.
As a side note, I have to believe Donatas Motiejunas is snickering in a corner, having been released less than a week ago by the Rockets.
Over the next 15 games Houston schedule isn’t terrifying, however at least 50% of their teams have plus .500 records. As much as the Rockets have been surging in both areas of the court, I’m still not convinced they are a top 4 team. With the loss of Capela they lose rebounding and Harden’s best pick and roll option. Unless you are confident Nene can produce the same results, this has to be a concern for Red Nation. And, the bench will now be without Nene, so the loss of Capela has far reaching effects.
Utah Jazz and Memphis Grizzlies:
As for the other two teams directly ahead of OKC they have been nursing injuries of their own through the first 8 weeks of play.
Memphis continued to win without Mike Conley who returned 3 weeks earlier than forecast. Surprisingly the Grizzlies have played worse with Conley back. Perhaps more concerning for Memphis is their next 14 games which features ten plus .500 teams and a stretch of 6 top teams in a row.
The Jazz meanwhile look to be the team who stands to directly benefit by these injuries as they welcomed back Derrick Favors and await the imminent return of George Hill. By far, the Jazz in my opinion look to be the team who (with a fully healthy line-up) could well be sitting in third by the time Griffin and Capella return.
But, can the Thunder take advantage to become the team who grabs the last home court seed?
Opportunity for Thunder:
Although no news is forthcoming on a return date for Oladipo, surely the fact there is no ligament or bone damage is a positive sign. That said, it is concerning that Rotoworld reported yesterday coach Billy Donovan said Oladipo still can’t use his right hand at all.
Oklahoma City are about to embark on what will be a trying segment of their schedule where they play 7 of their next 9 games on the road. Furthermore during this stretch six teams are plus .500 squads and OKC will play 5 of those teams in a row.
Still, there is a golden opportunity to move up the ladder. Though there are concerns centering around Oladipo’s return I’ll point you to another player who should be lacing them up shortly: Cameron Payne.
If Payne returns sometime in the next week his presence adds another ball handler and shooter to the mix. Though Summer League isn’t always reliable in terms of transferable production, Payne did light it up in Orlando. He was the top scorer averaging 18.8 points per game as well as 4 assists, 4.5 rebounds and 1.5 steals. Though Payne shot around 30% from deep there were signs he was improving upon this shot leading up to preseason.
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Should both Payne and Oladipo return in the next week to ten days the Thunder could find themselves with a resolution to their major issues. Both can create their own shots and help with ball distribution and both are better shooters than many of their current options.
Bottom line, the Thunder sit a half game back of Memphis, 1 game back of Utah, 2.5 games back of L.A. and 3.5 games back of Houston. Factor in the injuries and schedules over the next 6 weeks and this period could well determine which teams finish with home court positioning. Given the impending return of Payne and Oladipo, a top 10 defense and Russell Westbrook‘s brilliance this may well be the Thunder’s best chance to make a move upward. The question is can the Thunder capitalize and move up the ladder?
Only time will tell.
