It's Approaching Now Or Never Time For Carmelo Anthony And The Knicks
What does the future hold for Carmelo Anthony and the New York Knicks?
Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
The New York Knicks and Carmelo Anthony are quickly approaching a pivotal time in their relationship. Currently, the Knicks are sitting at seventh place in the Eastern Conference with a 10-9 record. Their schedule for remainder of this calendar year is going to be extremely challenging.
The Knicks are presently 2-6 on the road. They have nine of their next 14 games away from Madison Square Garden. This includes a trip to Golden State and a back-to-back in New Orleans and Houston. On top of this, they have a home date against the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers on Dec. 6.
In recent years, Dec. 15 has proved to be a significant date on the NBA calendar. It represents the time where teams have the ability to trade players who had just signed that previous offseason. The Knicks, of course, had no shortage of signings/trades this past summer, with Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah and Courtney Lee being the most notable.
But the player whose future in all likelihood determines the Knicks’ own future is All-Star forward Carmelo Anthony. Anthony joined the Knicks via trade in 2011, and after this season will have two years remaining on a five-year, $124 million deal.
The Knicks and Anthony are therefore on somewhat of a collision course as to their respective futures. The money invested in the likes of Noah and Lee this offseason indicates that team president Phil Jackson is “all-in” with this current group, in terms of moving up the standings and competing in the playoffs. Noah is 31 and has signed for four years. Lee is 30 and has also signed for four years. Anthony, 32, is naturally a part of the Knicks’ plans moving forward if their summer investments are any indication.
Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
No-Trade Clause
However, much has been noted and reported of Anthony’s “no-trade clause” in his contract. This means Anthony has the power to veto any proposed trade the Knicks may wish to pull off. In other words, Anthony will only be traded to the destination he sees fit. With the magic date of Dec. 15 in the midst of the Knicks tough upcoming schedule, the notion of Anthony being traded comes to the forefront.
Anthony turns 33 this coming May and is now in his seventh season with the Knicks. Naturally, an offseason of new arrivals, and a new coach in Jeff Hornacek, will bring about some initial enthusiasm, even for someone as experienced as Anthony, now in his 14th season in the league. But the Knicks’ upcoming road trips could prove a decisive factor in the future of both the Knicks and Anthony.
There is every chance, if their early season form is any indication, that the Knicks will struggle for the remainder of December. They are currently 2-6 for the season on the road, and seven of their nine away games for the rest of the month will be played in the Western Conference.
If the Knicks were to post a 5-9 record to round out the calendar year, this would bring their season to a 15-20 mark. As currently constituted, this would see them placed outside of the playoff rankings and with their work cut out for them to compete in the postseason.
In terms of the Knicks’ future, there are more or less two central options:
Naturally, there are pros and cons to each side of the equation.
Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports
Staying The Course
Retaining Anthony can assist in both the short- and long-term for the Knicks. In the short-term, he will help the Knicks remain competitive and assist with coach Hornacek’s vision for the team. His prescence can also greatly assist with the development of Porzingis. Not only does he draw attention away from the big Latvian on the court, but his off-court guidance and mentoring can prove to be invaluable for the player many see to be the next face of the franchise.
Leaving the Knicks in the hands of Porzingis now could be a large risk. He is still just 20 years old and therefore the Knicks shouldn’t have to feel they need to hand him the keys right now despite his obvious ascension this season. For the season, Anthony is averaging 22.6 points per game and 6.2 rebounds per game. He is shooting virtually identical to last season at 43.5 percent from the field, with his minutes slightly down at 33.9 minutes per game.
One of Anthony’s greatest strengths is his ability to get off his own shot. This current season has seen him unassisted on 53.2 percent of his field goals. By way of comparison, Porzingis has been unassisted on just 27.8 percent of his made field goals. This is a simple yet strong way of detailing the different stages the two of them are at in their careers. Anthony has a vast array of moves to create room for his shot, whereas Porzingis is still learning and coming into his own in this area.
Furthermore, it is just 19 games into a new coaching regime and a totally different looking team. Point guard Rose has been showing glimpses of the greatness everyone witnessed before his horrible run with injuries. Other newcomers in Lee and backup point guard Brandon Jennings have shown they look more than comfortable in the New York spotlight.
With the trade deadline this season not expiring until Feb. 23, it could be seen as shortsighted to not allow this team to develop at least until then.
Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
Turning A New Leaf
The other side of the coin is the future. As mentioned earlier, Anthony will turn 33 this coming May. He is undoubtedly at least a half step slower than in his prime. And combined with the fact that even though he is still just 21, the time could very well be now for Porzingis.
Players of all shapes and sizes develop at different stages. Some may take five years, while others will hit the ground running in their rookie season. Porzingis is currently averaging 20.8 points and 7.1 rebounds per game. He is shooting 47.8 percent from the field in 34.2 minutes per game.
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Through the first 19 games, Anthony’s usage rate is 29.3, placing him 14th in the league. Usage rate is an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor. Porzingis, meanwhile, is ranked 70th with a usage rate of 24.5. The problem with having Anthony heading down the line is that it is going to be quite difficult to convince him to take a backward step.
Anthony has been the alpha dog through his entire career. However, there comes a time when things need to be turned over to the next budding star. Granted, Porzingis’ minutes and numbers have all increased this season. His efficiency in particular has increased significantly, with the field goal percentage rising from 42.1 percent in his rookie season to his present rate of 47.8. However, it’d be even more fascinating if the respective usage rates of Porzingis and Anthony were flipped around.
Both their usage rates are identical to what they produced last season. Given Porzingis’ significant growth this season in efficiency and hence productivity, it’s not crazy to imagine how good he could become. Which is the dilemma the Knicks face – how do they convince or tell Anthony that now is the time to hand the reins over? Anthony himself was quite open about the issue recently after Porzingis scored 35 points in a win over Detroit:
“When he has it going, we want to go through that,” said Anthony. “I appreciate when he do have it going, then I can just kind of pick my spots on the court through the course of the game.”
Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports
What Does The Future Hold?
If the Knicks are to move on from Anthony, then the time is now. At his age, his value is only going to diminish further with each passing year. With a relatively old roster, the Knicks could inject some younger bodies into the mix if they did decide to jettison the Melo era.
But the problem, of course, lies with Melo’s no-trade clause. His position of power can significantly handcuff the Knicks in obtaining the best possible trade outcome for the franchise — unless he waives this cause of contract, which is possible but highly unlikely.
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Anthony is now at the tail-end of his prime. He has seen close friends in LeBron James and Dwayne Wade win multiple titles in recent years. Another close pal in Chris Paul has the Los Angeles Clippers in a great position in the Western Conference.
Therefore, if Anthony were to be moved, it’d be almost certainly to a contending team. And barring a three-team deal being arranged, this significantly reduces the amount of potential trading partners for the Knicks.
On the other hand, keeping Anthony is a more than viable option. Anthony has demonstrated over his four trips to the Olympics with USA Basketball that he is more than adept at playing a role, even a backseat role, alongside fellow superstars. This demonstrated that Anthony was able to excel playing more off the ball, and with less usage and isolation opportunities.
This season alone has brought about some interesting statistics involving Anthony. Currently, Anthony is ranked sixth in the league for catch-and-shoot points, per NBA.com. He is averaging 7.5 points per game on catch-and-shoot at an outstanding 50.9 percent shooting from the floor. Clearly, catch-and-shoot requires very little usage and removes any isolation from an offensive standpoint. Some more interesting observational breakdowns from this season are as follows.
Anthony shot attempts with:
There have been times this season where the Knicks home crowd have been audibly booing and demonstrating their displeasure when Anthony would get into one-on-one mode and somewhat stagnate the offence.
It’s a safe bet that if the crowd notices, then the coaching staff and his teammates will also be noticing. An even further breakdown of some numbers can help illustrate that a high volume of isolation ball can be negative for both the Knicks and Anthony.
Anthony three-point attempts with:
As can be seen, Melo is more than capable of playing off the ball and not having to resort to a high usage rate to garner results. If the Knicks decide to continue with him, this is clearly a key area that needs addressing. But getting Melo to modify and change the approach which he has used over 14 seasons is a lot easier said than done.
The Knicks therefore have a variety of challenges no matter what direction they decide to head in moving forward. And although it’s just a small stretch of the season, these next 14 games of December could very well change the thinking and direction of the Knicks franchise.
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