Heading into a series against the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Toronto Raptors have no clear role for Jonas Valanciunas.
Things were looking ugly for the Toronto Raptors against the Milwaukee Bucks prior to Game 4. The Raptors had trouble matching up to the Bucks' length and speed on both ends of the floor and fell behind 2-1 in the series.
In a decision that likely saved the season, coach Dwane Casey moved Jonas Valanciunas to the bench and inserted Norman Powell into the starting lineup. Due to Powell's defense and Serge Ibaka's mobility at center, the Raptors were able to snuff out the Bucks' offense.
Now with a series against the Cleveland Cavaliers looming, Casey must decide what to do with Valanciunas.
Part of why having Valanciunas come off the bench was a success was the matchup against Greg Monroe. While in theory Valanciunas would be better off against the wiry rookie in Thon Maker, he performed far better against the slow-footed Monroe.
He shot 60 percent from the floor with Monroe on the court, compared to 42.1 percent when he sat.
But the matchup against Monroe isn't the only reason this strategy was effective. The Bucks go with a more traditional lineup once they turn to their bench.
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With less mobility, along with Monroe's preference to attack in the post rather than the pick and roll, Valanciunas is in a far more comfortable position.
When he was matched up with Monroe, the Raptors had a plus-2.6 net rating, compared to a minus-2.8 net rating in Valanciunas' minutes against any other big man.
With the Bucks behind them, the Raptors now must find a new role for Valanciunas. Their current starting lineup simply won't cut it against the Cavaliers.
With a frontcourt of LeBron James, Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson, Toronto playing four wings would likely result in many offensive rebounds for Cleveland.
On the surface, this more traditional look should be better for Valanciunas. However, a look at the numbers indicates that the Raptors may have a problem.
Valanciunas has struggled in a big way against Thompson this season. He is shooting just 38.5 percent from the floor when Thompson is on the court. On the other end, his lack of mobility and poor pick and roll defense has allowed Thompson to shoot 85 percent from the floor.
But the Cavaliers won't just attack with Thompson. They will often abandon their regular set offense in order to expose defensive mismatches.
During the regular season, the team routinely would pull Valanciunas away from the basket to help open up driving lanes for Kyrie Irving and LeBron James. Excluding the final game of the regular season, the Cavs shot 50.7 percent from the floor with Valanciunas playing.
That number dropped to 30 percent when he sat.
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The knee-jerk reaction would be to keep Valanciunas in a bench role. The Raptors could go with Patrick Patterson, or give more mobile bigs such as Jakob Poeltl or Lucas Nogueira the start. But unlike the Bucks, minutes against the bench may be less favorable for Valanciunas.
What the Cavs typically do is sub James out early in the first to allow Irving and Love to combat the other team's starters. To start the second, James will attack the opposing team's bench surrounded by shooters.
In the playoffs, the Cavs have used Deron Williams, Kyle Korver, Channing Frye, James and either Iman Shumpert or Love. It's a no-win scenario for Valanciunas.
With that in mind, starting Valanciunas may be Toronto's only option. He will need to give the team far better minutes against the Cavs' starters than he has in the past. But it'll be important to make sure he is kept on a short leash.
If the team's defense is compromised by his presence, Casey must be willing to bench him. The playoffs are all about matchups. The Raptors simply can't wait three games to adjust like they did against the Bucks.
The Raptors went all-in at the deadline this season to try and become a contender. With many contract decisions pending, how they perform in this series may determine the future direction of the franchise. So it's important that they don't waste this opportunity to give it their best shot.
