Julius Randle's Improvement Creates Questions For Lakers
Julius Randle has taken a step forward as a player in his second full season with the Los Angeles Lakers. What does that mean for his next contract?
After missing his first season with a broken leg, Randle came back last season and had a controversial season for the Los Angeles Lakers. On the surface, Randle averaged 11.3 points, 10.2 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game.
He was one of the league's top double-double players and was a constant throughout another losing season in Los Angeles.
Dig deeper on Randle's play and you see that he was one of the worst defensive players in the league last season, he had a large percentage of shots blocked at the rim and he shot just 42 percent from the floor.
He also racked up 242 turnovers last season and was a big factor in Los Angeles finishing last in defensive efficiency.
It became a question of whether Los Angeles should use him as a selling piece, rather than consider him a piece of the franchise long-term.
| Julius Randle's Numbers | ||
|---|---|---|
| Via Basketball-Reference.com and ESPN.com | As of 3-6-17 | |
| Years | 2015-16 | 2016-17 |
| APG | 1.8 | 3.6 |
| AST% | 11.0 | 20.4 |
| PER | 13.9 | 15.7 |
| VORP | -0.9 | 0.6 |
| DRPM | -0.55 | -0.37 |
| On-Off Net 100 Possessions | -11.5 | -4.3 |
This year, Randle has improved and thrived under Luke Walton's system. His rebounding numbers are down, but he's a better playmaker and creator, he's shooting 48 percent from the floor and his defensive numbers have gone from an absolute trainwreck to merely below average.
There's no doubt that his game has taken a nice leap forward now that he's playing in a modern system.
But is that enough progress to convince Los Angeles to pay his next contract?
Along with his fellow draftmates in the 2014 class, Julius Randle will be eligible for a contract extension — his first major deal coming off of his rookie contract. Despite being eligible, Randle will most likely have to wait, thanks to the change in Los Angeles' trajectory.
Instead of offering Randle a new extension, that money might go towards adding a premier talent in trade; maybe even adding Paul George.
Even if the Lakers don't decide to make a move, Randle's next contract is certainly a question mark.
Making $4.1 million next season as opposed to $10 million to $12 million matters, especially with the free agent class of 2018 looking loaded and both Luol Deng and Timofey Mozgov in year two of their four-year contracts.
Saving extension talks until the following offseason makes much more sense.
Despite the creation improvement and efficiency jump, Randle still doesn't shine in any offensive category. He's shooting 64 percent at the rim, but he's also getting blocked on 10 percent of his "close" shots, via 82games.com.
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He's taken 186 shot attempts this season from 3-to-10 feet and shot 34 percent on them. Not great.
His mid-range game, however, is continuing to evolve. On just 41 shot attempts, Randle is shooting 51 percent on shots from 10 to 16 feet. That allows him to put together some quality assists at the rim.
Per Statmuse.com, Randle has 51.9 percent of his assists at the rim so far this season.
Even with the glances, Randle is still not a threat from three. Shooting just 20 percent from beyond the arc, Randle's game would truly evolve if he can add an outside shot, even from the corner.
The ability to become a true shooting threat, even from the corners, allows Randle to attack off the dribble, allowing Los Angeles' offense to add another dimension.
And the other issue is his defense. It's not as bad as his pseudo-rookie campaign. Los Angeles' defensive rating is seven points better with Randle off the floor.
Some numbers are suggesting that he's been better — 82games.com has Los Angeles at 0.8 points better per 100 possessions — but he's still not great on the defensive side of the ball.
Still, Randle finds himself in defensive no man's land — incapable of defending the rim and not ideal in stepping out and defending on the perimeter.
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Defensively, you have to keep a capable rim protector alongside him or live with the risk of the opposing team gliding to the rim with relative ease. It makes for a tough roster fit.
Randle is just one of the few contract extensions I'm curious about this upcoming year. Marcus Smart is going to be an interesting one for Boston, especially if they land one of the top picks in the 2017 draft.
Joel Embiid is a max-level player when he steps on the floor and Jabari Parker just suffered his second ACL tear. It's going to be rather interesting to see what happens.
Randle falls into that category for both his play on the court and Los Angeles' timeline. After the hiring of Magic Johnson, it's clear that this team is going to another direction; more of a win-now approach.
Does that approach include Randle as a long-term chess piece or a player to move and add new talent with?
With 22 games left in the regular season, the offseason looms for the Lakers and one of those questions will involve what they view Julius Randle as long-term and if he's a keeper or a trade piece this upcoming offseason.
