National Basketball Association

How LeBron James' injury could shake up the NBA playoff picture

Updated Jul. 20, 2021 8:14 p.m. ET

By Martin Rogers
FOX Sports Columnist

Countless things can have a delicate impact on the predictive state of an NBA season, yet only a handful can throw the whole thing into flux and doubt.

On Saturday, we saw one of the latter.

An injury to LeBron James categorically counts as a bombshell-type moment because, well, how could it not, with the Los Angeles Lakers star always, with one exception in the past 11 years, able to find a way to be central to the discussion of who is going to win the championship?

Now it’s a different conversation altogether, one filled with uncertainty and speculation. And for several other hopeful teams, the scent of opportunity beckons.

There is a lot we don’t know about James’ high right ankle sprain sustained during a collision in which Atlanta Hawks forward Solomon Hill tried to reach to steal the ball and rolled into James’ lower leg.

The time frame for such injuries is vague. Klay Thompson returned from one within a couple of days to play in the 2018 NBA Finals, yet in many other cases, players have missed up to two months.

James, despite screaming in pain when the injury happened, was able to launch a 3-pointer and hit it moments later before signaling to the bench that he was finished and leaving the floor.

According to FOX Sports Injury and Performance analyst Dr. Matt Provencher, high ankle sprains require 5.5 weeks of missed action on average, with a prediction of "some load management required in terms of overall playing time the first two weeks when [James] returns."

Given the timing — with exactly two months until the official start of the playoffs — everything is up in the air. A three-week return (the lower end of the typical range) looks a lot different than five-and-a-half weeks, which looks a lot different than seven.

In the tightly packed Western Conference, in which just 3.5 games separate the teams from second to sixth, a Lakers plunge into the lower-seeded positions would create a significant shakeup of the postseason picture.

After losing to the Phoenix Suns on Sunday, the Lakers sit in third place, just above the out-of-form Clippers and the quickly heating Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers. With Anthony Davis still sidelined with a calf strain, the Lakers know they will have to play entirely differently without either of their alphas.

"How we played before with them on the court, it's totally opposite now, I think," point guard Dennis Schroder said. Expect to see Schroder with the ball in his hands a lot more and a faster-paced, scrappier style in the coming games. In truth, however, there’s a limit to how much you can do to make up for the loss of a four-time champion and 10-time NBA finalist – on top of the Davis absence.

No one ever feels sorry for the oddsmakers, nor should they particularly, but it must be really tough to try to figure out who has the best prospects now, with so much left unknown.

Could James come back stronger than ever, having benefitted from a brief pause? Following the shuttering of the 2019-20 campaign due to COVID-19, he was imperious during the Lakers’ march to the title.

"We're encouraging him to take a mental break and recharge a little bit," head coach Frank Vogel said. "So that when he comes back, we're into a stretch where we can make a playoff push and make some noise."

FOX Bet now lists the Brooklyn Nets as championship favorites at +250, with the Lakers in second at +290.

"The Lakers are going to fall," FOX Sports NBA analyst Chris Broussard said on "First Things First." "If LeBron misses the next four weeks, that’s 15 games. They are going to drop, so it’s going to be much tougher. But assuming LeBron and AD get healthy, I still have the Lakers as the team to beat in the West."

James’ medical updates figure to be the most influential developments between now and the end of the regular season. The timing of his return, the nature of it and the level of efficacy he has when he’s back on the court will impact everything in the West.

What if James has just returned, and the Lakers have dropped to a lowly seed and are due to play the sparkling Suns or the Clippers or the tough-as-nails Nuggets, all while he is supposed to be on a minutes restriction – in the first round?

What if L.A. drops as low as seventh, which would require an earlier start to the postseason, courtesy of the Play-In Tournament?

While we’re in the habit of asking questions, what does every other team that thinks it has a shot do now, with the trade window just three days from closing?

There are potential moves to be made, and some have already been done. Monday added a new wrinkle, with Orlando Magic forward Aaron Gordon reportedly formally requesting a trade.

The NBA revolves around its stars, and there is none bigger than James. When something happens to affect him, the potential repercussions find their way into everyone’s thinking.

This is an unwitting side effect of an unfortunate injury, but the picture has shifted off an axis that was previously etched in purple and gold. The plot just thickened to become even more fascinating.

Martin Rogers is a columnist for FOX Sports and the author of the FOX Sports Insider Newsletter. You can subscribe to the daily newsletter here.