Sammy P outlines Game 1 betting strategy for Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns
By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The Phoenix Suns have been dealt the worst hand in the history of 2-seeds in the NBA Playoffs.
All the Suns did was come together, get buckets and win basketball games. They were rewarded with LeBron James, Anthony Davis and the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round.
Life just isn’t fair sometimes.
Bookmakers knew they had to make the Lakers the betting favorites, and the first series price to hit the market was Lakers -300 (risk $300 to win $100). That price lasted about an hour, as it was quickly bet down to -225 before settling around -150 the following day.
"The futures market helps tell the whole story," longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Dave Sharapan told FOX Sports. "The future prices never moved down on the Suns because the books weren’t getting any bets. And the books already have a huge position on the Lakers. So the books went on the offensive to get Suns money. The guys in the back put up a bigger series number knowing they would write it down. That’s what happened."
There’s always an angle behind the counter. Sharapan is adamant that the sportsbooks wanted to write their first few series bets on the Suns to help balance the ledger. The books are also well aware that LeBron has never lost a first-round playoff series (14-0).
"The league wants its superstars to go far," Sharapan opined. "You can sell the stars. The game is officiated differently and marketed differently for the stars. Books understand all this, and that’s why you see teams like the Lakers and Nets with such low prices to win the championship."
I covered the Chicago Bulls for many years, and they would often run into LeBron in the postseason. The series always seemed to go the same way. The Bulls would win the opener, then lose the series in five or six games.
I’ve argued for years that LeBron doesn’t prioritize the first game of a playoff series because he wants to see what you’re working with. He’s almost willing to concede a game if it means his opponents will empty their bag of tricks.
"It’s almost like Floyd Mayweather’s strategy," Sharapan said. "This is what great athletes do. They let you show all the cards, then make the necessary adjustments. Mayweather lets you show the whole deck in the first round or two, and then he’s got you figured out. LeBron is the ultimate counter-puncher. You can win a game or two early in a series, but the end result is usually him winning."
King James is 4-6 in his past 10 series openers, in case you were wondering.
I really, really like Phoenix (-2) this afternoon. The Suns are well-rested and are about to host the limping Lakers in front of a raucous home crowd. This is the first playoff basketball game in Arizona since 2010. If the Suns channel the energy and use it accordingly, they could easily win the opener by double digits.
But that won’t change much at the betting window.
"You’ll see less movement on the series price because of LeBron’s track record," Sharapan forecasted. "You can’t bury LeBron or over-adjust the price because the guy has proven that Game 1 isn’t important. If the Lakers lose Game 1, I don’t think the price will move much. Pick ‘em (-110) is the bottom. There’s no way the Lakers will be plus-money unless they’re down 2-0."
Sharapan agrees that the Suns are a good bet in Game 1.
"It’s the first playoff game in Phoenix in a long time, and that arena is going to be juiced up. The Suns are healthy, and they won a lot of games together. That always bodes well in the early going, especially considering that we don’t know how healthy LeBron is.
"Give me the younger team with something to prove."
My betting strategy for this series is simple. Bet the Suns (-2) in Game 1, then fire a series bet on the Lakers at an advantageous number if they’re down 1-0. The consensus price is Lakers -175 right now, and it would dip to Lakers -115 or so after a loss.
"I’m already interested in the Game 2 number," Sharapan said. "If the Lakers lose Game 1, I think the line opens pick ‘em (PK) for Game 2. The books are gonna let you bet Phoenix up. If you open Suns -2 or -2.5, you’re going to write nothing but Lakers money, and that’s no good."
Sharapan had me cracking up when he started talking about how much money would show for the Lakers in the second game after a loss.
"The bag guys will bet the Lakers in Game 2 if they’re down 1-0," he cracked.
"You’re gonna have to get another money counter. You better make sure that thing is serviced and ready to go. You’re gonna have to be ready to clean ‘em up. It’s going to be an absolute deluge."
Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let’s bet the Suns -2 on Sunday afternoon. Chris Paul, Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton have a lot to prove, and this is a buzzsaw spot for a Lakers team that hasn’t hit its stride yet.
After the Suns win, we’ll jump back into the pool with a Lakers series bet.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
