National Basketball Association

Maybe the Miami Heat aren't NBA Finals underdogs after all

Published Jun. 5, 2023 8:00 p.m. ET

College Basketball Broadcaster and Reporter

As the buzzer sounded, and time expired on Sunday night at Ball Arena, the only thing that should have been a surprise was that the Nuggets lost a game.

Denver’s seven-game, postseason winning streak was snapped. It fell at home for the first time in 66 nights, dropping its record inside its home arena to 43-8 on the year, including both the regular season and playoffs.

What should not be a shock, but absolutely exists in some circles, is that those eighth-seeded Miami Heat — the consummate underdogs — have done it again.

But here are my questions:

What do you think currently unemployed Mike Budenholzer thinks of that underdog? Miami’s the reason he lost his job in Milwaukee.
How do you think Jalen Brunson and New York City feel about the Heat? The Knicks gave a great fight, but ran into a mirror image of themselves — a better one. Look at Joe Mazzulla and the Celtics, who battled back to take three games off Miami, only to get blown off the floor in Game 7.

The point is, enough is enough. Doubt this Miami Heat team at your own risk. And if you actually thought that they’d lie down and get swept by the Nuggets, come on.

Jimmy Butler, Heat rally late to win Game 2 vs. Nuggets, even up series 1-1

The way they’re doing it has been eye-opening. It’s frankly absurd that the Heat went from being the NBA’s 27th-ranked team in the 3-point shooting department in the regular season to the top team in the playoffs at over 39%. With efforts of 45% from downtown against the Bucks and over 43% in the series victory over the Celtics, what came off as unsustainable at first has turned into the norm for this team. Perhaps it’s that the regular season simply doesn’t mean as much and has been diminished in value. Erik Spoelstra has talked about the offense being run to create more open shots and that playoff basketball has brought something "more intentional" to what his team is doing.

As Yahoo's Ben Rohrbach outlined recently, "Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson made 151 of their 364 3-point attempts (41.5%) for the Golden State Warriors, arguably the greatest team in NBA history, en route to the 2017 title. Gabe Vincent, Caleb Martin and Duncan Robinson (135-314 3P, 43%) are on pace to surpass them if the Heat do the unthinkable and win rings as a team that finished the regular season with a negative point differential."

I don’t want to sell low on how improbable the Heat run has been, but there should not be surprise about what happens going forward in this series. One would assume that NBA Finals games are going to be competitive, and potentially close.

There is a championship on the line, right?

Well, the Heat are better positioned than anybody in the NBA in closing time and that’s been shown throughout this postseason. Through 20 playoff games, in the fourth quarter, the Heat have a plus-90 point differential.

The Heat's success begins with head coach Erik Spoelstra and star wing Jimmy Butler.

Jimmy Butler on resiliency: "I think it's the 'I don't give a damn factor'"

There’s a reason Spoelstra has led Miami to its sixth NBA Finals appearance in the last 12 years. And from being the franchise’s video coordinator in 1995 to being named head coach of the organization in 2008 at the age of 37, his rise into being arguably one of the 10 best coaches in NBA history at just the age of 52 has been nothing short of amazing.

Just look at the adjustment to start Kevin Love in the 111-108 win over the Nuggets on Sunday night. The 34-year-old was a plus-18 in the game. There was his move to go to Robinson — who shot 1-for-6 in Game 1 — late in the third quarter of Game 2. With the Heat down 83-75, Robinson scored eight points in the first 70 seconds of the fourth quarter to trim the lead to a possession at 85-83. That surge sparked a 15-2 run in total to give Miami a 90-85 advantage, a lead they wouldn't surrender. There was also the adjustments in defending Nikola Jokic, who scored 41 points but had four assists to five turnovers, an uncharacteristic performance from one of the league's best passers.

The Heat have the coaching edge in this series. That was never a question or revelation. The question now is how Michael Malone responds after a Game 2 loss, one in which he followed with some startling post-game remarks, especially considering his team had just won seven straight games.

Still, it's one loss, and there should not be panic in Denver, but rather, some adjustments made by Malone, who is fully capable of tweaking a few things or else his team would not be here right now. But it will be interesting to see if the Nuggets can bounce back from adversity hitting for the first time in weeks, and, if they can do so in Miami.

Going back to Miami, Butler has been the best closer in this postseason. His toughness, intensity and will to win have been superb all throughout this run. When the fourth quarter hits, Colin Cowherd is absolutely correct: Who else would you rather have on the floor for your team?

On Sunday night, with the Nuggets back within three and less than seven minutes remaining, Butler drilled a triple. Two possessions later, a jumper and a free throw pushed the advantage back to seven at 98-91. When Denver got back within six at 107-101, Butler got a switch off a screen and buried a jumper over Jokic to silence the crowd and make it 109-101 with two minutes on the clock.

And you can’t forget about Bam Adebayo, who arguably was the biggest reason Miami came away a winner in Game 2. He was already one of the NBA’s best defenders, but the evolution of his offense — as shown by scoring 15 of his 21 points in the second half on Sunday — has been remarkable, especially when considering that he’s guarding the two-time MVP on the other side of this matchup.

The fact is, the narrative for close to two months has been that the Heat have come out of nowhere. At first, that observation was absolutely fair, but to continue to suggest that this team can’t meet the stage or doesn’t have enough is disrespectful to the superstars they've already dispatched.

It’s that very narrative, though, that has fueled the Heat to this stage, and could be the very thing that leads them to a title. After all, they are 13-6 in this postseason when Butler is on the floor (he missed Game 2 vs. Knicks) and are just three wins away from glory.

"Nobody cares on our team," Butler said following the Game 2 win. "We’re not worried about what anybody thinks. We’re so focused on what we do well and who we are as a group that at the end of the day, that’s what we fall back on. Make or miss shots, we’re going to be who we are.

"I think it’s the ‘I don’t give a damn’ factor."

John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him on Twitter @John_Fanta.

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