Memphis Grizzlies: 5 Things To Watch For With Mike Conley Out
With Mike Conley set to miss at least six weeks with a back injury, what can we expect from the Memphis Grizzlies in the meantime?
Nov 28, 2016; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies guard Mike Conley (11) is injured on a play in the third quarter against the Charlotte Hornets at FedExForum. Charlotte defeated Memphis 104-85. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
Off to an 11-7 start, the Memphis Grizzlies were looking good under first-year head coach David Fizdale. Despite missing Chandler Parsons for 12 games already, the Grizz sat at fifth in the Western Conference standings after winning seven of their last nine games.
But for a team seriously lacking in depth, another injury would’ve been enough to tip the scales against the Grit-N-Grind, and as the old adage goes for Mike Conley‘s team, this is why we can’t have nice things.
As first reported by Michael Wallace of Grizzlies.com, the perennial near-All-Star Conley is expected to miss at least six weeks due to a fracture in the vertebrae in his lower back, an injury he suffered in a third quarter collision during Monday’s loss to the Charlotte Hornets.
According to Wallace, no surgery is required, but the rest and recovery time will sideline Conley until at least mid-December.
Averaging a career-high 19.2 points, 5.7 assists and a career-high 3.6 rebounds per game, Conley was submitting his best season yet after signing a five-year, $153 million extension — the largest contract in NBA history — over the summer.
Conley was also shooting 44 percent from the field and a career-high 46.7 percent from three-point range. He was leading the team in scoring, assists, three-point percentage and Player Efficiency Rating, so there’s no doubt the Grizzlies are going to miss their best player.
The question is, what can we expect from the Grizz moving forward? From possible moves Memphis can make to aid their backcourt, to expectations for their incumbent replacements, to other areas of concern, here are five things to watch for with Mike Conley out.
Dec 13, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Philadelphia 76ers guard Kendall Marshall (5) dribbles past Toronto Raptors guard Kyle Lowry (7) in the second quarter at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Peter Llewellyn-USA TODAY Sports
5. Possible Moves For Replacements
As of right now, the Grizzlies’ starting backcourt looks like it will include first-year guards Wade Baldwin IV and Andrew Harrison in the wake of Conley’s injury. The only other guards on the roster are Troy Daniels and wing reserve Vince Carter.
In terms of possible replacements, the Grizz will qualify for the NBA’s hardship exception — which would allow them to add a 16th player — after Conley misses his third game. That would be after Memphis’ Dec. 3 contest against the Los Angeles Lakers.
Unfortunately, that exception only applies as long as Chandler Parsons and James Ennis are sidelined as well. The moment one of those two players return, which is obviously key for a Grizzlies squad missing its starting and backup small forward, Memphis’ roster will have to be chopped down to 15 again.
Outside of a trade, the Grizzlies will need to waive someone in order to add a veteran guard to temporarily aid the backcourt. The most likely waive candidate would be wing Troy Williams, who is not a regular part of Fizdale’s rotation.
According to The Vertical’s Adrian Wojnarowski, the Grizzlies plan on working out Kendall Marshall, Toney Douglas and Will Bynum.
Given David Fizdale’s prior relationship with Miami Heat guard Mario Chalmers (not to mention Chalmers’ stint with the Grizz last year), his name immediately popped up on the list of potential replacement options. But with Chalmers still recovering from last year’s Achilles injury, ESPN’s Tim MacMahon reports that he won’t be among the guards working out for Memphis:
Mario Chalmers, who ruptured his Achilles' tendon while playing for the Grizzlies last season, will not be among… https://t.co/qeQ3yzI9JU
— Tim MacMahon (@espn_macmahon) November 29, 2016
Another former Heat guard, Norris Cole, was mentioned as a potential workout option for the Grizz, according to Basketball Insiders’ Michael Scotto.
If the Grizzlies are looking for a temporary stop-gap option until Parsons and/or Ennis return, they’d be better off signing someone like Bynum, Marshall, Douglas or former Grizzlies guard Xavier Munford, since they could easily be waived later on.
Options like Jarrett Jack or Norris Cole are good enough to require a larger commitment, which may not be in Memphis’ best interests. As you can see, the replacement options aren’t exactly encouraging for the Grizzlies at this point in time.
Nov 25, 2016; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies guard Mike Conley celebrates on the bench after a score against the Miami Heat in the second quarter at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
4. Areas For Concern
The Grizzlies could add a veteran player for the short-term to get them through the next 6-8 weeks, or at least until Parsons and/or Ennis return using the hardship exception, but they might also just roll with their ultra-inexperienced backcourt and hope they can survive in the meantime.
No matter who the Grizzlies turn to with Conley out, there’s no question that Memphis has some obvious areas of concern to address.
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First of all, the Grizz will be missing their leading scorer, which could be an issue for the NBA’s 26th-ranked offense. They’re also going to be missing a player who accounts for nearly 29 percent of their assists — an obvious concern for a team ranking 25th in assists at 19.8 per game.
In terms of spreading the floor, the Grizz are shooting just 33.2 percent from three-point range, good for 23rd in the NBA. Taking the team’s best three-point shooter and his 46.7 percent efficiency from downtown is an absolute killer to the offense.
Finally, there’s the obvious issue of depth. Memphis ranked a respectable 10th in bench scoring at 36.2 points per game before Conley’s injury, but backcourt depth is wearing thin, even with Vince Carter and Zach Randolph doing such a great job this season supplying the scoring punch for the reserves. Memphis’ bench point differential of -0.5 is only going to get worse.
Andrew Harrison has been pretty solid defensively, but there’s no replacing a stout backcourt defender like Conley, especially with two first-year players. In nearly every aspect of the game, Conley’s absence will be felt.
Nov 1, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies guard Wade Baldwin IV (4) looks to pass around Minnesota Timberwolves guard Kris Dunn (3) in the second half at Target Center. The Timberwolves won 116-80. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
3. Young Backcourt Needs To Step Up
As we’ve alluded to several times already, the ultra-inexperienced backcourt of Andrew Harrison and Wade Baldwin IV will need to step up in a big way if the Grizzlies are to survive the next six weeks.
Baldwin, the 17th overall pick from this year’s draft, has averaged 3.5 points and 2.3 assists in 15.6 minutes per game thus far as a rookie. He’s a decent enough playmaker and can get to the hoop, but his perimeter shot still needs a ton of work.
Through his first 11 NBA games, Baldwin boasts a team-worst -6.7 plus/minus and is shooting just 33.3 percent from the floor and 18.2 percent from three-point range. Yet somehow, Harrison might be just as bad:
Andrew Harrison's shot chart for this season. He's sitting at 27.1 percent from the field, including 20.0% on catch-and-shoot. Yuck. pic.twitter.com/0tCMVdB7we
— Michael Gallagher (@MikeSGallagher) November 29, 2016
A second round selection from the 2015 NBA Draft, Andrew Harrison is technically a rookie as well, since he never suited up for the Memphis Grizzlies during the 2015-16 season. He’s got great size for the backcourt at 6’6″ and has played well on the defensive end, but the offensive end is where Memphis will miss Conley the most.
Averaging 5.9 points and 3.4 assists in 25.8 minutes per game, Harrison has little impact on the stat sheet. He has the team’s third-worst plus/minus at -2.2, and his .271/.217/.809 shooting splits leave a ton to be desired, especially for an offense that will have little to zero floor spacing with both Conley and Parsons sidelined.
In their first professional seasons, the pressure will be on for two first-year players lacking NBA experience. How well the Grizzlies manage over these next few weeks will heavily depend on how ready these youngsters are to rise to the challenge.
Nov 18, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; Memphis Grizzlies forward Chandler Parsons (25) motions to the Dallas Mavericks bench after making a three point basket during the second half at the American Airlines Center. The Grizzlies defeat the Mavericks 80-64. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
2. Other Returns Will Be Key
Putting all the expectations on two first-year players would be unfair, however, since the Grizzlies are also hurting on other areas of the floor when it comes to the injury bug.
Zach Randolph isn’t injured, but he’s missed the team’s last three games due to the death of his mother. He’s entitled to take as much time as he needs to be there for his family, but there’s no question Memphis’ bench will be overjoyed to have him back since Z-Bo looks like a Sixth Man of the Year candidate, averaging 14.2 points and 7.9 rebounds in just 22.3 minutes per game.
Randolph will be back sooner rather than later, but the injured players on the roster might not be able to say the same. The key absence is Chandler Parsons, who has already missed 12 games due to a lingering knee injury.
The Grizz took a great risk by signing Parsons to a four-year, $98.5 million contract, and so far the oft-injured wing hasn’t made anyone feel good about the decision. Aside from missing so much time already, Parsons has only averaged 7.7 points and 3.0 rebounds per game in his six appearances, shooting 39.1 percent from the field and 23.8 percent from downtown.
The Grizzlies could certainly use his playmaking and three-point touch, since both of those are bound to improve on the stat sheet once he gets healthy and acclimated. Parsons will be reevaluated soon, but there’s no word on a return date just yet.
Memphis still hasn’t seen much of what Brandan Wright can do either, since an ankle procedure about two weeks ago gave him a recovery time of two months. Wright also missed all but 12 games last year with the Grizz due to a knee injury.
Finally, there’s James Ennis, a backup wing who is currently sidelined due to a calf strain. Ennis was averaging 9.1 points and 5.3 rebounds per game on semi-efficient shooting splits of .442/.341/.806 before missing the team’s last four games. He was given an expected recovery time of two weeks.
Conley would’ve been a devastating loss no matter when this injury occurred, but with Z-Bo, Parsons, Wright and Ennis all sidelined as well, the Grizzlies need some sort of divine intervention for all their injured players to return as soon as possible.
Jan 8, 2016; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies forward Zach Randolph (50) and Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol (33) against the Denver Nuggets during the second half at FedExForum. Memphis Grizzlies defeated Denver Nuggets 91 – 84. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports
1. Grizz Are In Serious Trouble
There’s no way of beating around the bush here: The Memphis Grizzlies could be in serious trouble. Every win they scrape together between now and Conley’s return is a blessing, even for a team that’s already off to an 11-7 start.
Assuming the worst-case scenario, where Conley misses a full eight weeks, that would mean the Grizz have to scratch and claw their way through 32 games without their starting floor general.
In that 32-game span, Memphis’ opponents currently hold a .526 win percentage, with 18 of those games coming against teams currently at or above .500. Half of those 32 games will be on the road, but some of those home contests include dates with likely playoff teams like the Warriors, Cavaliers, Jazz (twice), Celtics, Rockets (twice), Thunder, Bulls and Raptors.
ICYMI: Mike Conley out 6-8 weeks with a back fracture.
The Grizzlies have been much better with Conley on the court than off this season. pic.twitter.com/ye8PLglDxg
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) November 29, 2016
As ESPN Stats & Info shows us, the Grizzlies boast a solid +6.5 Net Rating with Mike Conley on the court, but the moment he steps off it, Memphis’ -13.8 Net Rating would put them at the very bottom of the league. Their 91.1 offensive rating without Conley would also be the worst in the NBA.
Assuming the Grizz can stay around .500, they’d still be in good shape in the playoff hunt by the time Conley returns. But assuming that would be assuming WAY too much, since Conley was really doing it all for this team.
If Conley only misses six weeks and the Grizz carry on winning 64.7 percent of their games once he returns the way they were before his injury, Memphis should be able to climb its way out of the inevitable hole they’re going to dig for themselves.
But the margin for error/injury was already slim for a team with little depth, so with one key starter out and the team’s best player now going down, the Grizzlies may be hard-pressed to make the playoffs, let alone challenge the Western elite this year.
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