Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
The Miami Heat will almost certainly be picking in the middle portion of the NBA Draft's first round. Here are the six most intriguing names to watch.
Improbable, incredible and inconceivable are just three ways we can describe the close to 2016-17 for the Miami Heat.
They were dead in the water, and then they weren't. Superb play from James Johnson and Dion Waiters, along with Goran Dragic's leadership and Hassan Whiteside's explosiveness led the team out of the gutter, and into the thick of the Eastern Conference Playoff race.
Unfortunately, it wasn't to be.
Waiters twisted his ankle, the Heat lost steam and the postseason dream was dead. And for how exhilarating the final 41 games were, they did come at a cost: Miami went from probably having a top-six selection in the 2017 NBA Draft, to one that is all-but-certain to be 14th overall.
Just how likely is it that Pat Riley will be stuck with a pick in the middle portion of the first round? The odds on Tankathon state the Heat have a 98.2 percent chance of receiving the final pick in the lottery.
A draft spot that — historically — hasn't produced many star-level talents. The Miami Herald's Barry Jackson did an in-depth look at the players taken 14th over the past 35 years. I highly recommend you check it out as it's extremely informative.
But I'm warning you, it's a bit macabre as well, at least if you're a Heat fan.
Regardless, this upcoming draft class has been lauded as one of the deepest we've seen in a while. Thus, Miami should theoretically be able to add a year-one contributor no matter where they pick.
Let's take a look at the six most intriguing names who should be available around when the Heat will be on the clock.
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7. Honorable Mentions
There are multiple players who could help the Heat early on in their professional careers, but don't warrant being selected in the lottery.
A couple of big men fit that mold, including Tyler Lydon of Syracuse.
The 6-foot-10 power forward averaged 11.6 points, 8.6 rebounds and 1.4 blocks over his two years of college. He's an intriguing prospect for his ability to stretch the floor from his frontcourt position; Lydon shot 39.8 from three while at Syracuse.
He needs to get stronger and improve his rebounding and toughness, but his shooting should allow him to enjoy a long career as a role player. (Oh, forgot to mention: He's got some hop, too.)
There's also Isaiah Hartenstein, who played his basketball with Zalgaris of the Lithuanian league. He's a power forward/center hybrid, who measured in at 7-foot-1 with a 7-foot-2.3 wingspan during the recent Nike Hoop Summit.
Hartenstein hasn't produced much as a professional, but that makes sense considering he's 18 years old, playing with grown men. He's one of the most skilled bigs in the draft, with a sometimes-waning effort level, making him the biggest boom-or-bust prospect of the 2017 class.
Or, if Miami doesn't want to extend Waiters' time in South Florida, they could look shooting guard.
Donovan Mitchell of Louisville is a tough-nosed defender who can score and distribute from the 2-spot, while Terrence Ferguson, who chose to play in Australia over attending Arizona, is tall, long and has picture-perfect form on his three-point shot.
Either guy would be a solid rotation piece for Miami in 2017-18.
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6. Jarrett Allen, C, Texas
Although center isn't a position of need for the Heat, Jarrett Allen is talented enough for that not to matter. Instead of reaching for a guy who plays a spot you need filled, it's often more logical to take the best player available. And if he falls to 14, Allen would be just that.
The Texas Longhorns big man enjoyed a solid freshman campaign. He averaged 13.4 points, 8.5 rebounds and 1.5 blocks, while shooting 56.6 percent from the floor and 56.4 percent from the foul line.
Allen definitely needs to improve upon that last number, as well as with his distribution: On the year, the talented center had 26 assists to 84 turnovers.
(Doesn't he sound a bit like Miami's current center?)
Much like the player he would be backing up with the Heat, Allen is explosive near the basket, partially thanks to his freakish near-7-foot-6 wingspan. Here's just a hint of what he can do:
"The dunk of the year!" ???? #SCtop10 pic.twitter.com/utQoeetM9a
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) February 21, 2017
An elite finisher (shot an astounding 71.1 percent at the hoop) who can protect the paint, and is still just 19, Allen's potential is sky-high. It wouldn't be a stretch to say he could even one day blossom into being Whiteside's replacement.
And considering Willie Reed is due for a payday this offseason, taking the Texas freshman at 14 would immediately give Miami a suitable replacement, without having to overpay or scour free agency to find one.
Finally, and most importantly — though he's a bit raw — Allen could help Miami right away in year one. For a team with playoff aspirations in 2017-18, that's what matters most.
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
5. T.J. Leaf, PF, UCLA
We go from a best-player-available approach to drafting based on need; T.J. Leaf is the perfect example of the other end of the spectrum.
Pundits have contrasting opinions on how high the UCLA power forward will go. Draft Express has him slotted as the 24th overall pick, Ricky O'Donnell of SB Nation has him 23rd, while ESPN's Chad Ford actually predicts Leaf being drafted 14th, by Miami.
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Taking him in the middle of the first may be a reach, but there's no denying Leaf's talent.
In his lone year of college basketball, he averaged 16.3 points, 8.2 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.1 blocks. He was extremely efficient in his scoring, as well — Leaf shot 61.7 percent from the floor and 46.6 percent from three (though on just 1.7 attempts per game).
He is one of the best scoring big men in the draft, who can distribute while still taking care of the ball (only 1.5 turnovers on average), and provide passable rim protection on the other end. The issue with Leaf is his lack of upside: He's 6-foot-10, with an all-too-ordinary 6-foot-11 wingspan.
Moreover, though he occasionally surprises opponents with high-flying dunks, he likely won't test that well as an athlete at the NBA Combine.
A player limited athletically with just okay size, Leaf will have to prove over the coming months that his skill is enough to warrant a pick late in the lottery.
What's certain is that Riley and the Heat's staff will bring him in for private workouts before making their selection. If they come away with the belief that Leaf's shooting and overall offensive versatility will translate, he could very well be the guy at 14.
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4. John Collins, PF, Wake Forest
Another power forward the Heat could target is Wake Forest's John Collins. After a quiet freshman season, the 19-year-old big man exploded in his second year of ACC basketball.
On the season, Collins averaged 19.2 points, 9.8 rebounds and 1.6 blocks; he also converted on 62.2 percent of his shot attempts and a healthy 74.5 percent of his free-throws.
That's while playing in the toughest conference in the country and leading his team to an NCAA Tournament berth. Impressive stuff from a kid who won't even turn 20 until September.
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However, there are some concerns regarding his still-maturing game.
Collins is considered a lackadaisical defender at times, which is part of what led to his Demon Deacons being eliminated in the first round of the tourney. According to KenPom, they ranked 176th in defensive efficiency last season. For comparison's sake, Texas' defense — built around Jarrett Allen — was 21st.
Per Draft Express, his issues may stem from a lack of fundamentals. If that's the case, what better place to improve upon those than in Miami, under Juwan Howard and Udonis Haslem's tutelage? He does possess quick feet and a sturdy frame, meaning he's far from a lost cause defensively.
The other common knock against him is that he does almost all of his damage within 12-feet of the rim. When you consider today's NBA is dominated by the stretch-4, that may be a problem.
The Heat's offense absolutely excelled when they embraced the three-point shot in the latter part of 2016-17. Adding Collins to the lineup next to Whiteside would stymie that.
In all, even if his game is based around antiquated methods of scoring (posting up and mid-range jumpers) he's still an efficient monster offensively, and that may be enough for the Heat to give him a long look at 14.
Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
3. OG Anunoby, SF/PF, Indiana
Much like Collins, OG Anunoby also waited until his sophomore year before making his name known. Unfortunately, Anunoby's arrival was much more short-lived.
The Indiana wing saw his season end after merely 16 games, on what many believed to be a torn ACL (the program never specified the exact type of knee injury he suffered).
In his somewhat brief stint during 2016-17, Anunoby was brilliant, scoring 11.1 points per game, to go along with 5.4 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 1.3 blocks.
As of their latest mock-up, Draft Express had him going 13th overall, and with good reason. Despite the limited sample size, Anunoby proved to be the prototypical two-way NBA small forward as a sophomore.
He's got great size for a wing at 6-foot-8, with a reported-but-not-yet-verified 7-foot-6 wingspan. Just to show you how ridiculous that number is, if it's accurate, it would make Anunoby longer than Anthony Davis.
And after watching him make plays like this …
… I don't doubt the validity of the reports.
Anunoby would give the Heat an elite defender, who has the ability to play either forward position. Slot him next to Justise Winslow and watch them demolish opposing perimeter players on the defensive end.
His three-point shot is still a work in progress (31.1 percent from deep as a sophomore) and he finished the season with more turnovers (26) than assists (23). Both of those marks raise the question: Is he the next Shawn Marion or the next Wesley Johnson?
Thanks to his efficient scoring (61.1 true-shooting percentage) and improved skill within the three-point line, I'm confident in saying he'll at least be better than the latter.
If Anunoby's fully healed from his knee injury (big if), he'd be a steal at 14.
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2. Justin Jackson, SF, North Carolina
Justin Jackson is one of the fastest-rising prospects in the 2017 draft class.
As recently as January of this year, Draft Express had him projected as the 39th overall pick. Presently, he's all the way up to 14th.
Part of that is due to Jackson becoming a legitimate threat from three-point range as a junior. After shooting 29.7 percent from deep during his first two years of college, Jackson improved that margin to 37.0 percent in his third season.
He also got much better as a pure spot-up shooter, making him the exact type of wing the Heat want to put around Dragic and Waiters in Erik Spoelstra's drive-and-kick offense.
There are those who question how legitimate his improvements were, though. Over the first 30 games of 2016-17, Jackson converted successfully on 39.9 percent of his threes. But in his last 10 outings, he shot 28.9 percent from three, or, about what he shot as a freshman and sophomore.
Is a 30-game sample size (over three years) enough to prove he's become adept from beyond the arc? Or, is the fact that as the games got tighter and he faced better defenses, he regressed back to being a sub-par shooter from deep, a more accurate portrayal of who he is?
Nonetheless, his potential value isn't solely as a shooter. Jackson averaged 18.3 points per game last year, displaying an ability to score on all three levels. He also grabbed 4.7 rebounds and dished out 2.8 assists (to just 1.7 turnovers) nightly.
And he was the best perimeter defender on a national-title-winning team.
Add in the size he would provide Miami on the wing at 6-foot-8, and you've got the makings of a good fit.
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1. Zach Collins, PF-C, Gonzaga
It's highly unlikely Gonzaga's Zach Collins falls to 14.
The one-and-done prospect had modest production during his lone year at Gonzaga. He started in zero games (his team was laden with talented upperclassmen), averaged 10.0 points, 5.9 rebounds and 1.8 blocks.
So why all the hype?
For starters, he's a legit 7-footer, a very fluid athlete with deft touch around the basket, boasts an exciting post repertoire, and has solid form on his mid-range jumper. Further, Collins made 10 of his 21 three-point attempts on the year, proving he has stretch-4 potential.
He also has excellent instincts defensively, exemplified by his 4.1-block-per-40-minute average.
Collins helped himself most, though, by saving his best performance for last.
In the second-most important game in school history — Gonzaga's 2017 Final 4 showdown versus South Carolina — the freshman big man scored 14 points, brought down 13 rebounds and blocked six shots, while going 6-of-9 from the floor, in a 77-73 win.
As if his stat line wasn't impressive enough on its own, we should also mention that South Carolina boast the third-ranked defense in the country, per KenPom. Oh, and he's still a teenager.
Collins does have flaws: he struggles with fouling (sometimes overly-eager to contribute), isn't a threat from three (yet) and is a poor distributor.
Even so, if he fell far enough, he would be the easy choice for Miami at 14. He could his spend time his first year developing off the bench, backing up Whiteside. Or, if he's ready for a larger role right away, slot in at the 4 and take the spot left behind by Luke Babbitt.
Heat fans need to hope Collins experiences a Winslow-like slide on draft night. Just without the years of disappointment that follow.
