The Miami Heat have cooled off against this year's Milwaukee Bucks – what changed?
How many hot and cold jokes have been made about the Miami Heat to begin this year's playoffs?
While no one said they were good jokes, the sentiment behind each of them has been accurate: The Miami Heat have not lived up to their name through the first two games of their first-round Eastern Conference matchup with the Milwaukee Bucks.
Milwaukee has jumped to a 2-0 lead over the defending Eastern Conference champions, and what makes that even more shocking is the fact that in last season's playoffs – which began in August and concluded in October – the Heat completely dismantled the Bucks, who were the East's No. 1 seed and owned the best record in the regular season.
As the East's fifth seed last season, Miami jumped to a 3-0 lead over the Bucks. Milwaukee then eked out a win in Game 4 before the Heat closed out the series in five games.
This postseason, however, has been anything but smooth sailing for South Beach's basketball entity.
What has gone wrong for Miami? Let's take a deeper dive into the Heat's shortcomings as they face a 2-0 deficit in the first round:
1. The Heat are cold.
It's impossible not to keep going back to this bad joke (or whatever you want to call it) because it's the truth.
In last season's second-round series against the Bucks, Miami outshot Milwaukee by a considerable margin. The Heat shot 45.8% from the field, 37.3% from 3 and 85.4% from the line, while the Bucks shot 43.9% from the field, 32.7% from 3 and 73.1% from the line.
This season, the Bucks' numbers have remained similar, at 46.3% from the field, 32.1% from 3 and 71.7% from the charity stripe. Miami, however, has seen its numbers dip dramatically, shooting 38.1% from the field, 35.9% from 3 and 72.2% from the free-throw line.
2. Jimmy Butler is … the coldest.
There goes that temperature reference again. It's not going anywhere.
Miami's perennial All-Star has been bad through the first two games. Like, a lot worse than last season, when he dominated the Bucks and outplayed back-to-back MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The true sign that Butler is ice cold? He shot 85.2% from the line against the Bucks last postseason and is at an abysmal 64.3% so far this series.
Jimmy Buckets can't buy one.
Joining Jimmy in the struggle department is guard Tyler Herro, who averaged 13.2 points on 37.5% shooting against the Bucks last postseason but is putting up only 7.0 points on 20% shooting through two games of this series.
3. Backboard bullies
No reference to hot or cold here – the Bucks have simply plastered Miami on the glass through two games.
Get this: In their 2020 playoff series, the Heat averaged 44.4 rebounds per game, as opposed to 43.0 for Milwaukee. So far this series, the Bucks are averaging an absurd 62.5 rebounds per game, compared to 43.5 for Miami.
In addition, last season, Milwaukee accumulated 54 offensive rebounds in five games, compared to 39 by Miami, which means the Bucks grabbed three more offensive rebounds per game.
But through two games this postseason, Milwaukee has already amassed 36 offensive boards – 18 per game! – compared to 21 for Miami. That equals 7.5 more offensive rebounds per game for the Bucks.
For context, the No. 1 offensive rebounding team in the NBA this regular season was the New Orleans Pelicans, who averaged 11.7 offensive rebounds per game.
Lastly, Antetokounmpo alone is averaging 6.0 offensive rebounds through the first two games of this series.
4. Milwaukee has gotten better.
While Miami's roster has stayed mostly the same dating to last year's series, with five of its top six scorers back in the fold, the Bucks have upgraded.
Milwaukee added veteran point guard Jrue Holiday via trade in late November and signed forward Bobby Portis the same week.
In the regular season, Holiday averaged 17.7 points, 6.1 assists and 4.5 rebounds while continuing his run as one of the best on-ball defenders the league has to offer. Through two playoff games against Miami, he's putting up 15.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, 9.0 assists and 2.5 steals per game.
Portis put up 11.4 points and 7.1 rebounds in just 20.8 minutes of work in the regular season, and in two games against the Heat so far this postseason, he's averaging 9.5 points and 4.5 rebounds in 17.1 minutes.
Miami will look to bounce back in Game 3, but the cards don't seem to be in its favor — at least not yet. The Heat were blown out in Game 2, surrendering 46 points in the first quarter and 78 by halftime, and even though Game 1 went into overtime, it was misleading.
The Heat made 20 3s in Game 1, compared to just five by Milwaukee, but the Bucks were still able to secure the win.
In other words, the heat is on Miami – one last temperature reference for good measure – come Thursday's Game 3.
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