NBA Draft 2024 odds: 'Nothing about Bronny justifies a bet for first overall'
The average recreational sports bettor has no idea who Zaccharie Risacher is. Ditto for Alexandre Sarr, and to a lesser degree, Donovan Clingan.
But Bronny James? Him, they know, thanks to the pedigree of his father, all-time NBA great LeBron James.
So while Risacher, Sarr and Clingan are atop NBA Draft odds to be the No. 1 pick, it’s Bronny who’s getting all the attention ahead of Wednesday’s festivities.
"I’m not really surprised, since people are always intrigued with betting on long shots, especially when the long shot has a big name," Fanatics Sportsbook senior editor Max Meyer said Tuesday. "This draft is low on star power, so any recognizable name will drive action. Even [for] someone projected to go in the second round."
Meyer and BetMGM trader Hal Egeland serve up their insights on Bronny odds and more in the NBA Draft betting market.
No. 1 Son
On the Over/Under of James’ draft position, oddsmakers have him going in the late 40s or even beyond 50. The former USC player is a huge long shot to go No. 1 overall.
Fanatics has James +50000 to be drafted No. 1 overall. That’s 500-1, more than double his opening odds of 200-1.
On the plus side, that means a $100 bet would profit a whopping $50,000. On the minus side, it’s not happening.
And yet the tickets keep coming in.
"Bronny is the second-most-popular bet to go No. 1, with 16% of the tickets, only behind Clingan’s 25.8%," Meyer said, before noting that while there are plenty of bets on James, the actual money behind those bets is much lighter. "Bronny is fifth in handle for this market, at 5.3%."
At BetMGM, James is No. 1 in ticket count, taking 25% of all bets to go No. 1 overall. However, the bookmakers aren’t buying it. James opened +20000 (200-1) and his odds are now out to +30000 (300-1).
Still, it’s a brand name and potential big payout, something the public betting masses seem to love in this instance.
And Egeland gets it.
"There’s really not anything about Bronny’s performance on the court that justifies a bet for first overall," Egeland said. "But, placing myself in the mind of those bettors, that’s not really the thought process behind those bets.
"They’re taking a flier on the thought that whoever drafts Bronny will sway LeBron to join him. Is that worth a No. 1 pick? I’d say no, but I can understand the logic."
Rich Paul says Bronny James is 'not doing' a two-way deal
Money Better Spent
Thankfully, in sports betting, there are almost always options that provide better value. In Bronny’s case, there are two more props getting plenty of attention in the NBA Draft odds market:
- Which team drafts Bronny
- Over/Under on Bronny’s draft position
Fanatics’ Meyer said that from 9:30 a.m. ET Monday until 9:30 a.m. ET Tuesday, there was nearly 10 times more money wagered on which team will draft Bronny than what was wagered on which player will be the No. 1 overall pick.
And bettors are expecting — or perhaps just hoping — that Bronny lands with the Lakers.
"The Lakers are the most popular bet for this market, with 29.6% of tickets and 85% of money," Meyer said. "The Lakers to draft Bronny has drawn over seven times more handle than any other NBA Draft bet at Fanatics Sportsbook."
The Lakers opened as +160 favorites to draft Bronny and are now -130.
At BetMGM, it’s a similar story, though money isn’t as lopsided. The Lakers are taking 32% of tickets/52% of money on the prop bet of which team drafts Bronny. After opening as the +140 favorite, L.A. is now -120.
The Phoenix Suns and Cleveland Cavaliers are a distant second and third, respectively, in both tickets and money.
Bronny’s Over/Under market is seemingly lending itself to the most common sense. BetMGM opened his draft position at 41.5 and is now all the way up to 50.5 (Over -145).
"We’ve been taking nothing but Over bets. It seems just about everyone feels he’s going to the Lakers at 55," Egeland said.
Similarly, Meyer said Fanatics opened Bronny’s Over/Under at 40.5 and is now at 48.5 (Over -125). The Over has taken almost 95% of all money on that prop. And from 9:30 a.m. ET Monday-9:30 a.m. ET Tuesday, the Bronny James draft position prop took nine times more money than the No. 1 overall pick prop.
What type of NBA player will Bronny James be?
Legit No. 1 Picks
NBA Draft odds on the No. 1 pick have seen the favorite flip over the past few days.
On May 24 at Fanatics, Sarr — a French professional player — opened as a solid -260 favorite to be drafted No. 1 overall. Risacher, another French pro player, opened as the +250 second choice. Clingan, who helped UConn to the past two national titles, was a distant +1200.
On Friday, Risacher took over as the favorite at -105, with Sarr slipping out to +260 and Clingan shortening to +175. As of Tuesday evening, Fanatics’ odds are at Risacher -235/Clingan +250/Sarr +550.
"Risacher taking over the top spot was a combination of NBA Draft pundits mocking Risacher first; pundits saying Sarr is likely to be taken at No. 2 by the Wizards; more bets coming in with Risacher at plus money; and [Fanatics] aligning with the rest of the market," Meyer said.
Although Risacher is the favorite, he’s third in Fanatics’ money count at 21.6%. Sarr leads the money count at 31.3%, with Clingan at 26.7%.
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Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
