National Basketball Association

NBA Finals 2023: Nuggets-Heat key matchups, X-factors, prediction

Published Jun. 1, 2023 10:18 a.m. ET

College Basketball Broadcaster and Reporter

The NBA Finals tip off Thursday with a first-time participant taking on a franchise very accustomed to the closing round. So what can we expect?

The No. 1 seed Denver Nuggets are making their first Finals appearance, having joined the NBA in 1976. The Miami Heat are making a league-best seventh Finals appearance since 2006, winning championships in 2006, 2012 and 2013. They are just the second 8-seed to reach the NBA Finals, joining the 1998-99 New York Knicks.

While Finals experience is one thing, rest may be another key factor. When the teams take the floor for Thursday's Game 1 (8:30 p.m. ET), the Nuggets will have not played in 10 days. The Heat, meanwhile, traveled directly from Boston to the Rocky Mountains after winning Game 7 on Monday.

But there's plenty to watch heading into this fascinating series. Here are key head-to-head matchups and storylines, as well as a prediction for this year's NBA Finals. And for more, make sure to check out our team guides to the Nuggets and Heat.

1. Nikola Jokic vs. Bam Adebayo

The whole idea that some are just learning about Jokic is wild, because saying that about a two-time NBA MVP is a bit ridiculous. That being said, for the 28-year-old superstar who's in his eighth season, the Finals give Jokic the chance to silence anyone who argues that he hasn't won anything yet. It would cement his status as the best player in the league at this moment. Disagree?

Jokic is the only player in these NBA playoffs to rank in the top five in scoring (29.9 points per game), rebounding (13.3) and assists (10.3). His level of dominance has been unstoppable to this point, leading the Nuggets to a 12-3 record in the postseason.

Miami needs the 25-year-old Adebayo to play a huge role in this series and take ownership of what's happening in the frontcourt. When he's aggressive offensively and making his opposing matchups work hard on the glass, it's proved to be a successful formula for Miami. When Adebayo records over eight rebounds this postseason, Miami has an 8-1 record. The other big department that he can help the Heat in is ball movement when there's help on the interior. In Game 7 on Monday, he went for seven assists alongside his 12-and-10 performance. He has eight games of five assists or more in these playoffs.

That said, Adebayo hasn't seen anything like Jokic, who rides into the Finals off a 30-14-13 performance — in 45 minutes! If the Heat center gets in foul trouble, this series is going to go quickly.

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2. Jimmy Butler vs. Jamal Murray

In closing time, there's been no one better in this postseason than Butler. Just look at his 56-point master class to suck the hope out of the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round. There was his steady play against the Knicks, with four performances of 24-or-more points including a 27-and-10 night in Game 4 to take the grasp on the East semifinals. Despite a loss in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference finals, his 13 of the final 15 points for the Heat to nearly end the series with the Celtics was ultra impressive. If it's a close game in the late goings, Butler has silenced buildings and sent South Beach into pandemonium. As great as the Nuggets have been and as good as their superstar duo is, I wouldn't want to be in a tight one with Butler on the other side. That hasn't worked out for anybody.

On the other side, as great and dominant as Jokic is, in my humble opinion, whether Denver wins this series will be in the hands of Murray. His story is a special one, having gone through a long rehab process from a torn ACL injury suffered in April 2021 to get back onto the court and lead the Nuggets after missing the entirety of the 2021-22 season. Murray's shotmaking ability and the amount of attention he garners off the dribble make for such a challenging matchup for the opposing defense. He was a maestro against the Los Angeles Lakers, going for 31 or more points in three of the four games in the Western Conference finals sweep. I would guess that Gabe Vincent will get the first crack at guarding Murray, but we're likely going to see Butler take him on from time to time because Miami's superstar is a leader. It's going to be an all-hands-on-deck situation for Heat coach Erik Spoelstra, but he's already shown in this postseason that he's a wizard with ball screen coverage.

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3. Erik Spoelstra vs. Mike Malone

No offense intended, but Spoelstra would have the advantage over any coach in the league right now. It's not to put down Malone, who's done a really nice job with this Nuggets team. The fact is, the Nuggets head coach had won four playoff series in his entire coaching career before this season.

Spoelstra has reached his sixth NBA Finals since 2010. The job he's done with this team and the adjustments he's made to get the most out of his core have been exceptional. The way he runs his team and the messages that he preaches in the locker room carry the feeling of a college program. The culture in Miami is real.

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4. Miami's X-factor: 3-point shooting

It's downright stunning how much of a 180 the Heat have taken from beyond the arc. In the regular season, Miami was one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the league, sitting at 27th while shooting just over 34% from downtown. In the playoffs, the Heat haven't just been better — they've been the exact opposite! Miami has led the NBA at 39% from deep in the playoffs, getting remarkable shooting performances from the likes of Caleb Martin (26 points in Game 7 vs. Celtics), Duncan Robinson, Max Strus, Vincent and others. With the amount of defensive pressure that Butler and Adebayo garner, it's going to lead to some open looks for the supporting cast at certain points. That's what has led to the Heat being so difficult for the rest of the East in this postseason. It's a pick-your-poison situation, but Malone has stressed how his team understands that defense was the area they got criticized for heading into this postseason. Denver will need to be aware of weak side shooters in this series.

And there's another factor at play here: the potential return of Tyler Herro from a hand fracture injury.

It will be interesting to see how Herro factors into the Heat rotation and what Spoelstra does with a guy who can help Miami on the perimeter and averaged 20.1 points and 4.2 assists per game in the regular season. That being said, the mojo the Heat have found with Martin, Strus, Vincent and company has been quite evident on their run. You certainly want to factor someone in who can help you, but would never like to jeopardize the apple cart that's been rolling right along. We'll see just how much of a role Herro plays if he does in fact return. He has been ruled out for Game 1.

5. Denver's X-factor: Michael Porter Jr.

Denver is so difficult to stop because just when you think you've got some things figured out defensively against Jokic and Murray, the Nuggets can hit you right between the eyes with a 6-foot-10, versatile weapon in Porter.

His all-around game has really shown in this postseason and the Heat need to find a way to keep him off the glass. Porter went for 10 rebounds in three of the four games in the sweep over Los Angeles while averaging 15 points per game on the series. He's become a perfect third option for Denver, and his overall feel for the game has only gotten better, as exemplified by some of his playmaking against the Lakers.

Porter has become a great bridge player in fourth-quarter situations while Murray and Jokic might sit on the bench for the first three minutes of the frame, while also coming up with some huge shots in the final period throughout these playoffs. What he's brought to the table for Denver particularly in closing time has led this team to finding a different gear when it matters most.

NBA Finals Series Prediction: Nuggets in 6

As magical of a postseason run that it's been for the Heat, my gut says Denver because the Nuggets have the best duo in Jokic and Murray, a better defense than they've been given credit for and home-court advantage.

The Nuggets have led the NBA in the postseason in opponent fewest points off turnovers (13.5) and are second in second chance points allowed (10.2). The steady level that Porter, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Aaron Gordon and Bruce Brown are on is another positive, but the fact of the matter is this:

Jokic is the best player on the floor, and Murray is the perfect guard to capitalize when the big man is getting swarmed defensively. Sure, the Heat will take a couple of games in this series and should be trusted more late in games, but Denver will benefit off the rest and is on a mission to win this title. It's destiny for a franchise long overdue to win it all.

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John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him on Twitter @John_Fanta.

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