National Basketball Association

NBA Finals 2023 odds: Hot betting trend for Nuggets-Heat

Updated Jun. 10, 2023 9:32 a.m. ET

As the 2023 NBA Finals continues between the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat, it’s time to revisit a white-hot betting trend.

I’m far from the biggest trends person. Most betting trends are misleading because they tend to come without context. But this one shares a rather strong lesson in maximizing your money and minimizing your risk.

Las Vegas handicapper Ralph Michaels uncovered a doozy that revolves around picking winners of Finals games against the spread (ATS).

According to Michaels, the winner of a Finals game is 70-0-1 ATS in the last 71 when the betting line is set at -6 or less. And that includes all six meetings between the Golden State Warriors and Boston Celtics last year.

Repeat: 70-0-1!

This trend sat on the sidelines for Games 1 and 2 because Denver was favored by 8.5 and 7.5 points, respectively.

The Nuggets were installed as a 3-point road favorite in Game 3 and 3.5 in Game 4 at FOX Bet and the trend hit again.

Bettors looking to cash in on the trend may have to sit out Game 5 as Denver is favored by 9.5 points.

If you’re looking to bet Denver, lay the points at -110.

-110 > -167.

For those of you looking to bet Miami, go moneyline.

+120 > -110.

It really is that simple.

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

Nuggets defeat Heat in Game 3, Jokić & Murray both finish w/ triple-doubles

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