National Basketball Association

NBA Finals 2023 odds: Hot betting trend for Nuggets-Heat

Updated Jun. 10, 2023 9:32 a.m. ET

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Sam Panayotovich

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

As the 2023 NBA Finals continues between the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat, it’s time to revisit a white-hot betting trend.

I’m far from the biggest trends person. Most betting trends are misleading because they tend to come without context. But this one shares a rather strong lesson in maximizing your money and minimizing your risk.

Las Vegas handicapper Ralph Michaels uncovered a doozy that revolves around picking winners of Finals games against the spread (ATS).

According to Michaels, the winner of a Finals game is 70-0-1 ATS in the last 71 when the betting line is set at -6 or less. And that includes all six meetings between the Golden State Warriors and Boston Celtics last year.

Repeat: 70-0-1!

This trend sat on the sidelines for Games 1 and 2 because Denver was favored by 8.5 and 7.5 points, respectively. 

The Nuggets were installed as a 3-point road favorite in Game 3 and 3.5 in Game 4 at FOX Bet and the trend hit again. 

Bettors looking to cash in on the trend may have to sit out Game 5 as Denver is favored by 9.5 points.

If you’re looking to bet Denver, lay the points at -110.

-110 > -167.

For those of you looking to bet Miami, go moneyline.

+120 > -110.

It really is that simple.

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

Nuggets defeat Heat in Game 3, Jokić & Murray both finish w/ triple-doubles

Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray made NBA history in the game by both finishing with triple-doubles.

Download the FOX Super 6 app for your chance to win thousands of dollars on the biggest sporting events each and every week! Just make your picks and you could win the grand prize. Download and play today!

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