National Basketball Association

NBA free agency: 10 questions that will define the offseason

Published Jun. 28, 2023 4:00 p.m. ET

The NBA offseason has arrived! Free agency might not legally begin until Friday at 6 p.m. ET, but you can be sure both teams and agents are already working the phones.

The next week of transactions are going to impact the next years of action. With that in mind, here are what I consider the 10 biggest and most interesting free agency questions.

1. How will the new collective bargaining agreement impact decision-making?

The new CBA goes into effect on July 1. It includes what is basically a hard-cap. Any team that exceeds a certain threshold — it's being called a "second apron" — in salaries (this upcoming season that number will be around $182.5 million) will face a number of new Draconian restrictions. For example: They will no longer have access to the taxpayer mid-level exception. They also won't be able to sign bought-out players. They'll lose salary-matching flexibility in trades. And they won't be allowed to buy draft picks with cash.

There's more, but without going too far into the weeds just know that the new CBA means we could reach a point where GMs start asking owners not to spend on salaries because doing so would hamper the ability to build a competitive roster. Again, basically a hard cap.

We're already seeing the effects. The Atlanta Hawks just traded John Collins — a good rotation player with what, under the previous CBA, was a fair salary — to the Utah Jazz for a second round pick and Rudy Gay. In other words: they dumped him for nothing just so they could get off his salary. Will other teams react the same way? Right now, the Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Clippers, Phoenix Suns, Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks are all projected to exceed that "second apron" number.

Oh, it also might not be a bad idea for the NBA to, you know, actually finish putting together the official CBA document and send it out to teams.

2. Will Damian Lillard and the Blazers finally break up?

If you're already exhausted by this will-they-or-won't-they storyline, just know you're not alone. At this point it's fairly clear that both sides are ready for a break, the problem, it seems, is that neither Lillard nor the Blazers want to be the ones to initiate the process.

I don't want to lecture Lillard on what he should do — though I will say that anyone who spends this much time publicly questioning how much they want to work for their current employer and who has the ability and power to find a new home should probably do so — so instead let's focus on the Blazers. What should they do?

The answer is obvious: trade Lillard now.

Jumping up in the lottery and snagging Scoot Henderson with the draft's third pick gives them an opportunity. They have a blue chip prospect to build around. Combine Henderson with Shaedon Sharpe — last year's No. 7 pick, and a prospect who the Blazers love — and the 24-year-old Anfernee Simons, who averaged 24.1 points per game last season, and Portland has one of the most interesting young back courts in the NBA.

If the Blazers were to flip Lillard for some draft picks and a young player or two and then finish in the lottery again next season they'd be incredibly well set up for the future. The hard part of the rebuild would be done. I think fans in Portland would be okay with that. To me the more interesting question is: can the Blazers find a good deal for Lillard?

The Heat want him badly — Lillard would be an incredible fit next to Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo — and can offer Tyler Herro and three first-round picks. But is that something that should interest the Blazers? How valuable are future draft picks from a team that never finishes in the lottery? And where does Herro fit on a team that already has a loaded young backcourt?

Look around the league, and it's hard to find many other obvious Lillard suitors. The New York Knicks already have a stud point guard in Jalen Brunson — it wouldn't make sense for them to cash in their chips for Lillard. The Philadelphia 76ers are always in the conversation, but it's hard to envision them parting with Tyrese Maxey.

If I was the Blazers I'd target the Brooklyn Nets. They won't part with Mikal Bridges, but maybe you can pry away a bunch of those unprotected Phoenix Suns first round picks they own. Think of it this way: Is there a better bet in the NBA than shorting a team with an aging roster and being quasi-run by Isiah Thomas?

3. What does James Harden want?

He has two options: return to the Sixers or a reunion with the Rockets. Houston is home, but Philly offers a better chance at a ring. Both teams can pay him. The question is what does Harden value, and are the Rockets willing to outbid a Sixers team that needs to bring Harden back.

Speaking of Houston …

4. What do the Rockets do with their cap space

The Rockets have $60.9 million in cap space, the most in the NBA. They've also made clear — in comments both public and private — that they're done with tanking and running out G-League level lineups. That money is going to be spent on veterans. The problem is there are no obvious matches on the market.

Maybe Fred VanVleet. Dillon Brooks and Brook Lopez (more on him in a bit) are two players who executives from other teams expect the Rockets to go after. But it's also important to realize that, because the Rockets are going to be the most active team in free agency, every agent representing a free agent is going to do everything they can to link their clients to Houston, just to create some leverage.

There is, however, one sort-of A-lister that the Rockets could chase if they want. Which brings us to …

5. What will Kyrie Irving do?

It doesn't seem like the Lakers are interested in heading down that path. That seems to leave Irving with two options: re-sign with the Dallas Mavericks, or convince the Rockets to throw a ton of money at him. Then again, maybe Irving is willing to take a pay cut and join another team. You never know with Irving. And while I wouldn't want him on my team, he's by far the biggest star among this off-season's free agents.

[Why do NBA players stand by Kyrie Irving? 'He shows a lot of love']

6. Are the Sacramento Kings about to steal away Draymond Green?

The Kings gave away their first-round pick last week so that they could clear Richaun Holmes' contract from their books, giving them the option of opening up $35.6 million in cap space. Parting with a first-round pick is typically something a team only does if they have a specific move in mind. In this case, could that be prying Draymond away from the Warriors?

Green is an unrestricted free agent, and we know the Warriors want him back. But he does have strong ties to the Kings, namely head coach Mike Brown, who spent six seasons as a Warriors assistant.

7. What will the Nets do with all their wings?

Basically every team in the league is on the hunt for a capable 3-and-D-type wing. Except the Nets, who have about 12 of them. And I'm only slightly exaggerating. There's Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson (assuming he re-signs) and Royce O'Neale and Dorian Finney-Smith. A team like the Cavaliers would kill to have one of those players in their starting lineup. So would about a dozen other playoff-caliber squads.

9. Can the Bucks run it back?

A new head coach is one thing. But with both Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton becoming unrestricted free agents, next year's Bucks could look very different. If a team like the Rockets throws big-money offers at either Lopez or Middleton, will the Bucks be willing to match and go deep into the luxury tax? And if not, and with Giannis Antetokounmpo eligible to sign a contract extension next summer, could the Bucks be on the clock once again?

10. Which star player is about to stun us by being moved or asking for a trade?

This is July in the NBA, after all. There's always something around the corner that we didn't see coming.

Yaron Weitzman is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. He is the author of "Tanking to the Top: The Philadelphia 76ers and the Most Audacious Process in the History of Professional Sports." Follow him on Twitter @YaronWeitzman.

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