National Basketball Association

NBA Front Office Confidential: Whose championship window is closing?

Updated Apr. 8, 2023 6:14 p.m. ET

The Golden State version of the Warriors has won five NBA championships total, including a deluge of four in the last eight years, more than any franchise over that span.

If the Warriors hope to add a sixth, league executives and scouts say, it better be now.

The question posed was relatively simple: Which team is facing its best last chance to win a title? And while there were nearly a half-dozen answers given, the most popular one was clearly the team looking to secure the Western Conference's sixth seed with wins over the Portland Trail Blazers and Sacramento Kings this weekend.

A Western Conference scout listed five teams whose title-hunting permits are about to expire, four of them in the Western Conference: the Warriors, Phoenix Suns, Los Angeles Lakers and LA Clippers. The Philadelphia 76ers were the lone Eastern Conference team.

But the Warriors were clearly at the top of his now-or-never list. Two Eastern Conference GMs and one Eastern Conference scout picked them as well.

The Western Conference scout's reasons were wide-ranging.

The anticipated departure of defensive backbone Draymond Green, after a video leaked of him punching teammate Jordan Poole in a preseason practice, which has reduced his effectiveness as a leader.

Sharpshooter Klay Thompson's reduced explosiveness and consistency since returning from a torn Achilles tendon and a torn ACL.

Their up-and-coming talent — most notably Poole, Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody — being "overrated" in his estimation.

And, their "perplexing" 9-30 road record, suggesting fatigue and diminished hunger that comes with six marches to the Finals with the same core.

"There are no major issues, just a smorgasbord of small ones," he said. "But it is death by a thousand little cuts."

A practice altercation between Draymond Green and Jordan Poole has many in the league believing Green will be on his way out of Golden State after this season.

The Eastern Conference GMs added to the list. The first suggested that more stringent rules for teams paying the luxury tax in the newly negotiated collective bargaining agreement will hit the Warriors hardest. Golden State currently has the highest player payroll in the league, cresting $200 million this season and potentially rising beyond $210 million next season already, according to SpotRac. He also named the Lakers, Clippers and Suns as facing the same dilemma.

The second Eastern Conference GM also could see the Warriors losing the architect of those last four championships, GM Bob Myers, who is on an expiring contract, along with Green, who has a player option for next season.

"If they don't win, you could see some major changes," he said.

Despite the recent acquisition of superstar scorer Kevin Durant to put alongside All-Star shooting guard Devin Booker, veteran point guard Chris Paul, and a young double-double machine in center DeAndre Ayton, the Suns were the next most popular choice. A second Western Conference scout pointed to the age of Durant (34) and point guard Chris Paul (39) as the primary issue, along with the price to acquire Durant: two solid defenders in Mikal Bridges and Jae Crowder, and another talented wing in Cam Johnson.

"They went all in and have little leverage to upgrade the team going forward," said a second Western Conference scout. "Age matters for KD and CP. If lucky, they may have one more year after this."

The first Western Conference scout echoed that sentiment, particularly because Paul, once a defensive spearhead, is now a liability stopping opponents.

"Other teams are targeting and attacking him," he said. "That was unthinkable in the past. How do they navigate the dicey problem of reducing his time when he is getting torched?"

The Suns are undefeated with Kevin Durant in the lineup. But a West scout said their newfound lack of depth will haunt them come playoff time.

A Western Conference GM pointed to the Milwaukee Bucks, who currently have the best record in the league, as his choice, primarily because he sees the window having already closed on the Warriors and Lakers, and the Suns not being good enough to knock off whichever team comes out of the East. While Milwaukee should remain a competitive team with the presence of MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo, he sees the franchise at a tipping point with center and defensive player of the year candidate Brook Lopez as a pending free agent and eight of their top 11 players — including Lopez — being 31 or older.

"The Bucks are the favorites right now," he said. "Everyone is healthy, everyone is playing great, but everyone is getting older. It's hard to hold it together in terms of paying everyone."

The 76ers were another surprise candidate, with their superstar center Joel Embiid representing this year's odds-on favorite to win MVP. While Embiid is only 29 and signed for at least three more seasons — with a player option for a fourth — it is the uncertain future of fellow star James Harden that could be the team's undoing.

Harden is a free agent this summer and rumors have surfaced of his desire to return to the Houston Rockets. There also have been rumors about head coach Doc Rivers being on the hot seat with the team twice failing to get past the second round despite a roster with three players making more than $30 million each — Embiid, Harden and Tobias Harris. The Western Conference scout anticipates the Sixers saying goodbye to both Harden and Rivers if they have another disappointing postseason.

"The 76ers are on trial," he said. "A poor playoff performance dooms (head coach) Doc Rivers. A new coach will need time to forge a relationship with Embiid, a mercurial MVP candidate who is not easy to coach. James Harden is a prickly issue. It may be time to move on. Size and depth are current and future issues. And the GM (Daryl Morey) is more master self-promoter than genius."

Joel Embiid is a staple in Philly, but another early playoff exit could result in the exits of both Doc Rivers and James Harden, said one NBA scout.

The upside is that the title-contending window for all the teams mentioned is considered open.

The downside? Not for much longer.

Ric Bucher is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. He previously wrote for Bleacher Report, ESPN The Magazine and The Washington Post and has written two books, "Rebound," on NBA forward Brian Grant’s battle with young onset Parkinson’s, and "Yao: A Life In Two Worlds." He also has a daily podcast, "On The Ball with Ric Bucher." Follow him on Twitter @RicBucher.