National Basketball Association

NBA odds: Best and worst teams against the spread in the regular season

Updated Apr. 13, 2022 5:04 p.m. ET

Now that the NBA’s 75th season is in the books and the playoffs are a few ticks away, as basketball bettors, it’s a good time to reflect on the surprising betting results from this season.

And just like the season surprised us with players sitting out for various reasons, blockbuster trades and laughably constructed teams that failed to live up to the hype, the betting results for teams against the spread (ATS) also surprised us.

In looking at the numbers ATS this season, FOX Sports Research found that:

- Since the 1990-91 season, there have been 25 teams to have covered 49 plus times in the regular season; two of them were this year, the Memphis Grizzlies and the Oklahoma City Thunder.

- Of the 16 teams with a cover percentage of over 50% in the regular season, two of them failed to make the playoffs or Play-In tournament — Oklahoma City Thunder and Detroit Pistons;

- Of the eight teams to win 50-plus games in the regular season this year, two of them finished with a cover percentage under 50%. — Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers.

The NBA season is a long and arduous grind, filled with endless travel and unfamiliar hotels; late nights coupled with early morning practices. Teams go on hot and cold streaks that directly correlate with the peaks and valleys of the NBA marathon. A team that performs well ATS is proving that they consistently rise to a level higher than the book (and bettors) give them credit for. While that doesn’t always translate into straight-up wins, it does translate into being a scrappy, profitable team that makes their backers winners.

With that in mind, it's no surprise that the blue-collar Memphis Grizzlies — second-best record in the NBA (56-26 SU) and eighth-shortest odds to win the title (+1400) — were the best team ATS this season with a record of 53-29, a franchise-best.

We asked FOX Bet Basketball Trader Dylan Brossman to explain the reason for the Grizzlies' betting performance.

"One thing immediately stands out to me about Memphis — the Grizzlies win/loss line was set at 41.5 entering the season. Their 56-26 record put them a whopping 14.5 games over their projection," he said.

Brossman continued, "Consistently beating the spread is all about exceeding expectations, and it is safe to say that the Grizzlies did that in 2022, thanks in large part to Ja Morant upping his PPG to 27.4, from 19.1 in 2021."

While Memphis’ great ATS record is reflected in their SU victories, that is not always the case. At 52-30, the OKC Thunder were the second-best team ATS, yet they finished the season only 24-48 SU. Even more remarkable is that the Thunder were only favored to win a game three times this season. Is it safe to assume this was a team that lacked experience but made up for it with nightly hustle and grit? While that may be the case, Brossman thinks this partly may be due to plain ol' luck.

"For OKC, their stellar ATS record may simply have been the result of marginally covering the spread throughout the season, rather than clearly overachieving like the Memphis Grizzlies," he said.

"The Thunder finished exactly where they were predicted in terms of wins and losses. Our over/under for the Thunder was 23.5 — they finished 24-58," he stated before continuing, "Unlike the Grizzlies, who managed to cover the spread by a league-best 3.2 points per game, the Thunder beat the spread on average by just 0.2 points per game."

The Toronto Raptors round out the top three when it comes to gambling success this season, as they finished the regular season 47-35 ATS. A young team stocked with long, athletic wings and bigs, the Raptors started the season 22-19 ATS before finishing 25-16 ATS over the second half.

"It is also no surprise that Toronto had a great record against the spread," Brossman explained. "Like the Grizzlies, the Raptors massively outperformed their pre-season expectations, winning 12.5 more games than oddsmakers projected thanks to stellar coaching, the emergence of rookie Scottie Barnes and consistent production from Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr."

Unfortunately you can have a young team that is not only poor against the spread but straight up as well. That would be the case for the Portland Trailblazers who really couldn’t get anything going with their lost season that saw Damian Lillard sidelined and his backcourt mate, CJ McCollum, traded to the New Orleans Pelicans prior to the All-Star break. Unlike the Thunder, this would indicate a team that is short on experience and didn’t play hard enough to meet their lowly expectations.

"Dame played just 29 games this season and CJ was traded after 36 games, so it should come as no surprise that the Blazers' record, in terms of wins/losses and ATS, reflected their disappointing season," Brossman stated. "The team finished 27-55, 16.5 games under their preseason prediction, and as a result, finished dead-last in covering the spread and average margin of victory ATS (-4.6)."

So in closing, with two of the top three teams ATS still alive in the playoffs, does this mean we should place futures bets on the Grizzlies or Raptors? Not so fast. FOX Sports Research has not found a correlation between wins ATS and winning championships. In fact, the 2019-2020 Los Angeles Lakers finished three games above .500 in win percentage while the 2017-2018 Golden State Warriors finished 28th out of the 30 NBA teams; both of these squads went on to win the title those seasons.

However, if you are looking to make some money these playoffs, the Grizzlies and Raptors have proven all season that the book’s expectations of them have been woefully low. Meaning, it might be solid to wager on them on a game-to-game basis.

If you want to place any wagers on these playoffs, head over to FOX Bet to get in on the hoops betting action!

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