National Basketball Association

NBA odds: Cavaliers best record against the spread, Lakers the worst

Updated Dec. 17, 2021 11:39 a.m. ET

When it comes to fan bases that ride for their squads until the wheels fall off, Los Angeles Lakers faithful are probably the most bombastic of all the groups. As any Lakers fan will proudly tell you, "SEVENTEEN BANNERS!"

And while the Purple and Gold have historically won a lot on the court and are currently sixth in the Western Conference, they're losing when it comes to the betting landscape.

Especially against the spread.

And on the very opposite end of both those spectrums — the championships and against the spread (ATS) — are the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs are actually at the top of the pack when it comes to covering the spread.

But what does that even mean?

Every time two teams face each other in any sport, we know there will be a final score. One team will win by a certain amount, the other team will lose, and in some sports like the NFL, teams will tie.

But for gambling purposes, oddsmakers come up with the margin of victory for each game. That margin of victory is called the point spread. Before games, bookmakers at FOX Bet decide by how many points Team A is expected to defeat Team B.

For example, let's say Team A is favored to win by 10 points, and they do win but by fewer points than those 10. That would mean Team A failed to cover the spread. Team B (the underdog) covered by not losing by more than 10 points. Also, Team B would cover the spread if they won outright.

So we end up having two winners, of sorts. Yes, Team A won the game, so they put a "W" in their win column, but Team B covered the spread. So bettors who took the underdog in Team B would put some money in their pockets. And that's a little gambling 101 for you.

Now back to the two opposites in the Lakers and Cavaliers.

Los Angeles, a team whose odds to win the NBA title is fourth-best at FOX Bet (+900), is currently the second-worst team in the NBA when it comes to covering the spread. The Lakers are 10-19 ATS.

Cleveland, on the other hand, is currently the best team in the league at covering the number but with long-shot title odds. Per FOX research, the Cavaliers are an NBA-best 24-6 ATS. And when looking at the numbers, there isn’t a team that comes close to the Cavaliers in the covering category.

After Cleveland covered as 5.5-point favorites against the Miami Heat 105-94 on Monday, the Cavaliers were on a scorching 12-game ATS win streak.

After defeating the Houston Rockets Wednesday night 124-89, the Cavs increased that ATS streak to 13.

How is it that Cleveland — with its 17-12 record — has performed so well ATS, while the Lakers, loaded with some of the NBA's most recognizable names, are one of the worst?

With Cleveland, it comes down to defense. The Cavaliers are the No. 2 defense in the NBA based on opponent scoring, allowing just 101.9 points per game. Rookie sensation Evan Mobley and fellow twin tower Jarrett Allen have been swatting everything in sight, averaging a combined 3.1 blocks per game.

Additionally, according to FOX Bet sports trader Dylan Brossman, this year's Cavs are much different and much better than previous post-LeBron Cleveland teams.

"In Cleveland, we've got breakout seasons from Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley leading the Rookie of the Year race and both Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio are rejuvenated," Brossman said about the Cavs success so far this season. "All these factors have made it difficult to value this year’s squad through just 30 games.

"Is Cleveland due for some mean reversion? Or do they simply deserve more respect? The answer is most likely both."

As for the Lakers, oddsmakers always inflate their lines and make bettors pay a premium, FOX Sports' Sam Panayotovich explained. In general, the people that set the lines (oddsmakers) know that gamblers will always flock to the bigger teams and bigger names.

And when it comes to the NBA, what bigger team than the Lakers, and what bigger name than LeBron James?

But according to Brossman, Lebron's age is starting to become a factor as his player efficiency rating and box plus-minus are the lowest they've been since his rookie year.

"There are serious doubts if LeBron, who turns 37 at the end of December, will be able to salvage the Lakers roster as it stands," the bookmaker said.

"Barring a Russell Westbrook trade or Anthony Davis awakening, expect oddsmakers to begin adjusting their expectations for the Lakers as a mediocre Western Conference team."

Other factors do come into play with Los Angeles and Cleveland, with one of the main ones being motivation. The Lakers have been there, done that ("SEVENTEEN BANNERS"), so there will be some nights that they take off. This, of course, affects covering the point spread. On the flip side, the Cavaliers are a young team trying to establish themselves, so there will be nights where they play harder than other teams. Which, in turn, helps them cover the spread at a higher rate.

So when it comes to betting, the best teams aren't the ones necessarily covering the most spreads. But as Omar once famously said in The Wire, "It's all in the game."

However, just because a team doesn't cover the point spread at a high rate, doesn't mean they won't win the title. Per FOX research, there's no correlation between a team's title chances and how well they perform ATS.

Two notable examples of this are the 2019-20 Lakers and 2017-18 Warriors.

In the 2019-2020 season, the Lakers finished just three games above .500 ATS but were still listed as a huge favorite to win the title at the beginning of April. Of course, the Lakers won the championship three months later in the Bubble.

The 2017-2018 Warriors finished 28th out of 30 teams in ATS percentage. They entered the first round of playoffs that year as huge title favorites, too. Golden State went on to sweep the Cavs 4-0 to take home the NBA title.

So there you have it, folks. It's still early in the season, but it will be fun to monitor ATS records moving forward.

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