National Basketball Association

NBA odds: Profile of an NBA champion and best futures bets

Updated Apr. 15, 2022 5:11 p.m. ET

After the NBA Play-In tournament ends and the playoff matchups are set, gamblers will have a better idea of whether those championship futures they wagered on back in October will be worth their weight in bet slips.

However, as the saying goes, you can't know where you're going if you don't know where you've been. With that in mind, we took a quick look at past NBA champions' regular season metrics to look for possible commonalities for which team might take home the hardware his year.

Here is what stuck out:

Win Percentage

Per FOX Sports Research, since the 1991 NBA Finals, teams that won it all also had an overall win percentage of at least 73.5% games during the regular season.

Now, at first glance, 73.5% seems like a high number, and winning that percentage of games over the course of a lengthy NBA season is certainly no easy feat. But that percentile breaks down to an average of 58.6 wins per season.

This season, the Phoenix Suns — a team that finished with an NBA-best 64-18 record — were the only squad to meet that benchmark. At 78%, the Suns not only exceeded 73.5%, but they are the only team with a win percentage exceeding 70%.

And then next up is the second-tier.

While "almost doesn't count," there is a grouping of teams that finished the season with at least 62% in the W column — Grizzlies, Warriors, Mavericks, Heat, Celtics, Bucks and 76ers. Will the Suns keep the trend alive or will a squad from this other bunch defy history?

Point differential

Points per game differential was another common denominator on championship row, as past NBA champions had a +7.1 points per game (ppg) differential. In addition to defeating opponents by more than seven points per regular-season matchup, these champs going back to 1991 also put up an average of 103.8 ppg.

For fans and bettors — depending on how you wagered — there's always something magical about watching a team's point total tick up from 99 to 100. And the champions in our sample set not only hit triple digits throughout their runs, but they also held opponents to an average of 96.7 ppg.

This year, the two teams that fit the bill of a 7-plus point differential are the Celtics and the Suns.

Star Power

Perhaps the least surprising thread weaving together yesteryear's champs with more recent winners like the Warriors or the Bucks is the All-Star component. Essentially, you cannot spell NBA champion without star power. From Kobe to Dwyane Wade, Steph Curry to Giannis, every team that hoisted the Larry O'Brien trophy had at least one player who had been named to an All-Star roster.

At FOX Bet, the Suns (+275), Bucks (+500), Nets (+700), Celtics (+800), Warriors (+800) and Heat(+1000) have the Top Six Finals futures. And you know what each of those teams also has? A player on their roster who was named to this year's All-Star team.

They say that defense wins championships, but according to our research, superstars do, too.

Ultimately, our brief dive into the profiles of NBA champions of the past reveals one glaring truth; the future looks bright for the Suns (bet $10 to win $37.50 total).

And while it's tempting to throw some money on Coach of the Year Monty Williams' squad, it's also worth considering teams like the surging Celtics who also fit two of the three key metrics. Don't forget about the 1-seed Heat or the reigning champion Bucks. Those two teams were also right there statistically.

So which team are you throwing a couple bucks on to win it all? Head over to FOX Bet to get in on the NBA betting action now!

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