National Basketball Association

How to bet the NBA playoffs: Why Jazz, Suns will advance in second round

Updated Jun. 7, 2021 9:25 p.m. ET

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The defending champion Lakers are out of the playoffs, bounced in the first round by the Suns after Anthony Davis was hurt in Game 4. The Lakers – favorites to come out of the West – never recovered, and now they’re gone.

We’re left with:

- The 1-seed Utah Jazz, who last won the West in 1998 with John Stockton and Karl Malone and haven’t been to the conference finals since Deron Williams took them there in 2007.
- The 2-seed Phoenix Suns, who last won the West in (checks notes) 1993 and haven’t been to the conference finals since Steve Nash got them there in 2010.
- The 3-seed Denver Nuggets, who were in the conference finals last year and have never been to the NBA Finals.
- The 4-seed LA Clippers, who have never been to the conference finals, a stat that seems too mind-boggling to comprehend.

Here’s how you should bet this motley quartet:

UTAH JAZZ vs. LA CLIPPERS

The Jazz are the favorites from the West to win the title (+400 at FOX Bet, meaning a $10 bet would win you $50 total), but you could argue that in a series vs. LA in the semifinals, the Clippers will have the best two players on the floor every night. (I’d argue for Donovan Mitchell over Paul George, but I digress.)

Utah would have swept Memphis last round if Mitchell had played in the opener. Even so, the Jazz prevailed late in the fourth quarter of Games 3 and 4 because of the backcourt experience of Mitchell and Mike Conley. Conley’s hamstring injury is cause for concern because the backup point guard is Jordan Clarkson, who is sixth on the team in minutes played in the playoffs yet leads the team with 14 turnovers.

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I’m not sure how the Jazz will contend with the Clippers on the wing. Royce O’Neale is a solid defender. Mitchell is 6-foot-1. This means that Bojan Bogdanovic – 18.4 PPG, 43% on 3-pointers vs. Memphis – will be tasked with defending George.

The Jazz are familiar with George. In 2018, he struggled mightily (40% FG, 36% 3FG) in a first-round playoff series against Utah while playing for OKC, and the favored Thunder lost in six games.

The Jazz will have had six days of rest – plus home-court advantage – while the Clippers played a grueling, seven-game series with the Mavericks and won’t have much rest in between. Kawhi Leonard played 40-plus minutes in six of the games in that series; George, five. I’ll bet the Jazz in Game 1.

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As usual, read nothing into the regular-season matchups, in which Utah won two of three. Kawhi missed one loss, George missed one loss, and Lou Williams (now in Atlanta) played in all three games. What’ll be most interesting is whether the Clippers play Rudy Gobert off the floor. Will the two-time Defensive Player of the Year be put in the pick-and-roll endlessly, or will he chase Nicolas Batum to the perimeter?

The Clippers were at their best going small vs. Dallas. Will the Jazz tinker with zone like Dallas did?

Ultimately, I believe the Jazz take the series (-125 to advance at FOX Bet, meaning a $10 bet wins you $18 total), likely in seven games. And yes, I’m aware Ty Lue is 4-0 coaching in Game 7s (three with LeBron James, one with Leonard).

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PHOENIX SUNS vs. DENVER NUGGETS

The Suns would be my second pick to come out of the West (+333 to win the conference, meaning a $10 bet wins you $43.30 total), for much of the same reason I liked the Philadelphia 76ers when the bracket came out. The path is just easier.

The Suns should not have much of a problem with the Nuggets. If you thought Denver would have trouble with Portland’s backcourt, they now face Chris Paul and Devin Booker, which is a step up in class – pending CP3’s shoulder injury, of course.

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The Nuggets had five players (!) shoot better than 40% from deep against Portland. But the Blazers ranked 29th in defensive efficiency and 27th in the NBA defending the 3. The Suns ranked ninth and second in those categories, respectively.

Nikola Jokic has been the best pick-and-roll player in the playoffs, and he rated sixth in the regular season, per NBA.com. The likely MVP will face a difficult test in DeAndre Ayton yet probably will still average 25-12-5. Actually, it’s the rest of the Denver offense that concerns me.

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If Austin Rivers and Monte Morris aren’t splashing from deep, where do they get points with Jamal Murray out for the season? Phoenix’s Mikal Bridges is a plus defender who struggled against LeBron’s size and passing ability; Michael Porter Jr. knows only scoring and will be an easier matchup.

I will be looking to bet the Suns every game in this series as long as Paul can stay healthy — and health certainly is an issue in these playoffs. The only team in the West that has a fully healthy starting lineup is … the Clippers.

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.