NBA staff debate: Warriors' repeat chances, Lakers and Nets drama, MVP picks
By Ric Bucher, Melissa Rohlin and Yaron Weitzman
FOX Sports NBA Writers
After an offseason of blockbuster trades, trade requests (some of which are still unsettled), a high-profile restricted free agency saga and a handful of team scandals, the 2022-23 NBA season promises to be interesting.
That feels especially true now that there's growing belief that Victor Wembanyama, the projected No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, is going to be a star.
In anticipation of opening night on Tuesday, we asked our NBA staff writers a few questions about the league's biggest stars, teams and storylines for the upcoming season.
What is your biggest, boldest, juiciest prediction for this season?
Bucher: Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving will not finish the season with the Brooklyn Nets. It just feels like an all-or-none season for the Nets. They're one of several teams that could end up in the Finals or scratching to make the playoffs. The schedule-makers did them no favors with their first five games being against the Pelicans, Raptors, Grizzlies, Bucks and Mavericks, testing an already fragile chemistry and trust in their head coach, Steve Nash. If they don't look like a title contender at midseason, I could see Sean Marks and Joe Tsai pulling the rip cord, having a fire sale and starting over.
Weitzman: That I'm buying the Nets.
Rohlin: The Lakers are going to be contenders. There's no way LeBron James is going to let the team flounder again. Last season was an embarrassment for both him and the organization. After entering the season with championship expectations, they fell flat on their face, missing the play-in tournament with a dismal record of 33-49.
James, a four-time champion, is used to winning, taking the Miami Heat and Cleveland Cavaliers to the NBA Finals eight straight seasons from 2011 to 2018 and then leading the Lakers to a title in 2020. For a guy used to that kind of success, missing the playoffs two years in a row would be unimaginable.
Regardless of what happens with Anthony Davis' health and Russell Westbrook's status on the team, make no mistake that The King will carry the team to the playoffs this time around, even if it means he has to win the scoring title and assist title in his 20th season.
A Warriors repeat. Likely or unlikely? (And if not them, who is your Finals pick?)
Bucher: Unlikely. They weren't the best team last year, just the healthiest team at the right time. The LA Clippers will win the West. Too deep, too well-coached, too motivated. Clippers-Bucks in the Finals. And then there's the Draymond Green-Jordan Poole incident, or rather the video of the Green-Poole incident, to navigate. The competition is just too fierce, the challenge of repeating too great, to overcome all that.
Weitzman: In general, the math says bet against the repeat (we've seen only 12 in the past 50 seasons). And the West is better this season, especially at the top, with the Clippers getting Kawhi Leonard and Paul George back and Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. returning to the Nuggets. Oh, and one of the Warriors' most important players just punched a teammate in the face.
That's not to say I'd be stunned to see the Warriors repeat — they'll certainly be one of the few teams in the mix — but I'm going with the Bucks. Giannis is a monster, especially in the playoffs (no one makes 30-point, 18-rebound, seven-assist performances seem so normal). Also, if Khris Middleton didn't go down last season, I think we'd be talking about the Bucks going for a three-peat. Remember, they took the Celtics to a Game 7 without Middleton. The combination of Giannis, Middleton's shot creation and the Bucks' suffocating postseason defense is a tough recipe to beat.
Rohlin: They're going to repeat as champions. After all, they're only going to be better this time around. Steph Curry isn't slowing down, Klay Thompson should have his rhythm back after missing 2½ years because of ACL and Achilles' injuries and Draymond Green will be playing for his future considering he's up for a contract extension.
The Warriors also return Jordan Poole, Andrew Wiggins and Kevon Looney, and they'll finally get to see their No. 2 overall pick, 21-year-old center James Wiseman, who missed last season because of a knee injury. This team is deep, smart and talented. Their core knows how to go all the way, reaching the Finals six of the past eight years. And they have talented youngsters. They're the team to beat, regardless of any drama that transpired during the preseason.
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Lakers drama: Will they extinguish the flames or throw more gas on the fire? What do you expect to happen in L.A.?
Bucher: They have flaws that simply can't be overcome. Start with a major disadvantage in three-point shooting — they can't make 'em, and they're not that good at defending them. I see the Lakers struggling to stay above .500, LeBron turning his focus to scoring once again and the Lakers looking to trade Anthony Davis before the trade deadline.
Weitzman: You'd think any team with LeBron and AD is going to be really good. The Lakers are doing their best to prove otherwise.
It's not that those two aren't great; the rest of the roster, though, oof. The problems start with Russell Westbrook, but also, can you name the Lakers' sixth man? Or their starting center? This team has no shooting, no defense on the wing, no secondary shot creation other than Westbrook widely steamrolling into the paint.
Combine these issues with a loaded Western Conference — who among the Warriors, Clippers, Suns, Nuggets, Pelicans, Grizzlies, Mavericks, and Timberwolves are the Lakers beating out? — and I just don't see any way this team makes the playoffs.
Rohlin: Last year was an experiment. It didn't work. Heading into this season, there are far different expectations. Westbrook no longer has a pass because he's a future Hall of Famer. If he doesn't perform, he won't start or finish, something first-year coach Darvin Ham has made abundantly clear. That's going to light a fire under Westbrook.
And as for Davis, he's incredibly tired of being plagued by the injury-riddled reputation and, after a summer of rehab, he's going to do everything in his power to remain on the court. The only thing the Lakers did spectacularly last season was fail. It's only up from here.
Will LeBron James, Lakers capture another NBA championship?
What will happen with the Nets?
Bucher: They need Kyrie Irving to be drama-free, which doesn't seem likely. Either Steve Nash doesn't make it through the season or the Nets blow it up and move the stars who don't seem particularly enamored with him. I'm betting on the latter.
Weitzman: The difference between the Nets and Lakers is that the Nets' issues have nothing to do with talent. To the contrary, actually — they might have the most loaded roster in the NBA.
We don't need to rehash the drama, or all the questions surrounding this group. And yet, there's so much talent here that I sort of expect this group to get off to, like, a 14-3 start that, for a stretch, puts some of the internal issues to bed. Kevin Durant is still a top-three player, the return of Joe Harris — one of the league's top shooters and a big wing defender — is huge, Royce O'Neale is going to bolster the defense, there are shooters on the bench like Seth Curry and Patty Mills, and Ben Simmons doesn't have to do anything other than play defense and push the ball up the court.
I'm buying this year's version of the Nets and expect them to be competing for one of the East's top seeds.
Rohlin: The Nets also can only improve on what was a miserable failure of a season. After they got eliminated in the first round, it seemed as though the team was going to be blown up. But Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are back, and they're not going to let that happen again. Irving should play far more than 29 games this season, which already changes the equation for the team. Not to mention, the Nets will finally have Ben Simmons available. Get ready for the Nets to finally make some noise.
Nets should be favored to win it all
Who's your pick for MVP?
Bucher: Giannis Antetokounmpo. The voters aren't going to put Nikola Jokic in the Bill Russell-Wilt Chamberlain-Larry Bird circle. No one puts up gaudier numbers than Giannis (other than Jokic), which seems to be the path these days to winning the award.
Rohlin: Joel Embiid. He has arguably been snubbed a few times now. Full transparency: I voted for him last season. He made the 76ers a top contender in the Eastern Conference despite all the drama surrounding Ben Simmons, leading the entire league in points along the way (30.6) and finishing fifth in rebounds (11.7). Embiid has openly wondered many times what more he has to do to win the award, and, quite frankly, I agree with him.
Weitzman: Giannis. He's basically guaranteed to average 29 points, 12 rebounds and five assists to go along with elite defense with his Bucks competing for the East's top spot.
Who has the best shot at Rookie of the Year?
Rohlin: Paolo Banchero. The 19-year-old power forward can score in many ways and is also a skilled playmaker who creates mismatch headaches because of his combination of strength and agility. He is already proving to the world why he was selected as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, recently finishing with 17 points on 6-for-9 shooting, nine rebounds and two assists in a preseason game against Memphis. It has to be mentioned that his path to winning the award was also made easier by the unfortunate season-ending foot injury Chet Holmgren, the No. 2 overall pick, suffered over the summer.
Bucher: Banchero. He's the most pro-ready rookie I've seen, and he's going to be involved in everything the Magic do, particularly offensively.
Weitzman: Paolo Banchero. He's got an NBA body and might already be the best offensive player on the Magic. They won't win any games, but his numbers will be there.
Which offseason acquisition will be the biggest difference-maker for his team?
Bucher: Kyle Anderson for the Minnesota Timberwolves. I'm not ignoring what Rudy Gobert can and will do, but I need to see how the combo of Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns is going to work. Anderson will fit in seamlessly because he's everything the Timberwolves needed — a high-IQ player who doesn't need the ball to make an impact. There's a much better chance he is on the floor at crunch time with Towns than Gobert is.
Rohlin: Dejounte Murray to the Atlanta Hawks. Murray emerged as an All-Star last season and him teaming up with Trae Young should elevate the Hawks to contenders. Murray is a dynamic, defensive-minded guard who will help open up the court for Young, while also providing some much-needed grit on the other end of the court.
Which star will switch teams next?
Bucher: Russell Westbrook. They want to move him, they've tried to move him and nothing in the preseason indicates the fit is any better than it was last year.
Rohlin: Westbrook. The Lakers tried to shop him and his $47 million salary all summer but couldn’t find any deals they were willing to take. Westbrook’s fit with the Lakers has been shaky from the get-go. Unless he pulls a complete 180 and figures out a way to be consistent and seamlessly fit alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis, the Lakers will tirelessly continue to try and trade their fallen superstar.
Weitzman: Does Westbrook count as a "star"? Because if he does then he's the easy answer here, simply because he's the only "star" whose team is trying to get rid of him.
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Which team will be better than expected?
Bucher: The Toronto Raptors. All the oddsmakers have them winning fewer games than last year's 48. I have them getting at least 50. No team was more wrecked by COVID issues, Scottie Barnes will only get better and Pascal Siakam will return to All-Star form.
Rohlin: The New Orleans Pelicans. In many ways, they were one of the Cinderella stories of the NBA last season. Without Zion Williamson, they weren’t expected to make the playoffs, and they opened the season with a dismal 3-16 start. But they turned that around behind stellar coaching from Willie Green, a trade for CJ McCollum and strong play from Brandon Ingram, eventually beating both the San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Clippers in the play-in tournament to make the postseason. Now, Williamson is back and this team could really go far.
Weitzman: The Nuggets. Think of it like this: They won 48 games last season without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. and with Monte Morris and Jeff Green starting. That's how good Nikola Jokic is. They now get both players back, and also added Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown. This is a legitimate title contender, despite being only +1800 to win the title on FOX Bet.
Which team will be worse than expected?
Bucher: The Phoenix Suns. All indications are that Deandre Ayton isn't happy about being back there, and Jae Crowder clearly doesn't want to be there. Both were vital to their success the past two years.
Rohlin: The Portland Trail Blazers. The team is revamped, but the jury is out on whether the roster has been improved enough for the Blazers to actually make noise. At least Damian Lillard is back after playing only 29 games last season because of an abdominal injury. It’ll be exciting to have him in the game once again, but the clock is ticking for one of the league’s biggest stars to finally have a chance to compete on the sport’s biggest stage. Expect Lillard to be great, though I'm not sure the same can be said about his team, yet again.
Weitzman: The Chicago Bulls. This is a team that went 8-15 after the All-Star break last season so don't be surprised if they come out of the gate at a similar pace. A knee injury is already sidelining Lonzo Ball, and the East is better and deeper than last year. If, come January, the Bulls are barely hanging on to a play-in spot, could they decide to strip the team down and enter the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes.
Read more NBA preview stories:
- NBA preseason survey: League insiders on sleepers, boom-or-bust teams and more
- NBA Eastern Conference preview: Nets, Bucks, Celtics, 76ers remain contenders
- Warriors once again grappling with the duality of Draymond
- Russell Westbrook and the storm brewing within the Lakers
- Why NBA execs believe a Kevin Durant trade is still likely
- Victor Wembanyama is the NBA's future, and resistance is futile
Ric Bucher is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. He previously wrote for Bleacher Report, ESPN The Magazine and The Washington Post and has written two books, "Rebound," on NBA forward Brian Grant’s battle with young onset Parkinson’s, and "Yao: A Life In Two Worlds." He also has a daily podcast, "On The Ball with Ric Bucher." Follow him on Twitter @RicBucher.
Melissa Rohlin is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the league for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Times, the Bay Area News Group and the San Antonio Express-News. Follow her on Twitter @melissarohlin.
Yaron Weitzman is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. He is the author of "Tanking to the Top: The Philadelphia 76ers and the Most Audacious Process in the History of Professional Sports." Follow him on Twitter @YaronWeitzman.
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