Nikola Vucevic should start for Orlando Magic when healthy
Dec 28, 2015; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic center Nikola Vucevic (9) passes around New Orleans Pelicans center Omer Asik (3) during the second quarter of a basketball game at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
The Orlando Magic need a spark, and Nikola Vucevic‘s improvement should be enough to put him in the starting lineup with teammates he fits well with.
The Orlando Magic find themselves once again needing a spark to help them stay afloat in the Eastern Conference playoff race.
The Magic had some momentum going after a strong road trip, but after a losing streak that included a loss at home to the Denver Nuggets, the Magic find themselves on the outside looking in.
And things only got worse last week when Nikola Vucevic went out with a lower back injury. Vucevic’s absence is a big reason for their recent struggles.
The conclusion from the recent stretch of games, as the defense has faltered and the team has struggled to gain its footing despite an improved offense is clear. Vucevic should return to the starting lineup when he is healthy.
Dec 2, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Orlando Magic center Nikola Vucevic (9) reacts after a three pointer against the Philadelphia 76ers during the second half at Wells Fargo Center. The Orlando Magic won 104-88. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Vucevic’s added bonus
Despite having some success early, the current starting lineup is not producing particularly well.
The lineup scores about 101 points per 100 possessions but allows 114.7 points per 100 possessions. Despite having two strong interior defenders in Serge Ibaka and Bismack Biyombo, they have not been good on the defensive end and that is alarming.
This lineup has not rebounded the ball well either, only grabbing about 42 percent of available rebounds. The ball movement is also lackluster, and in a slow lineup, they have not been able to create enough scoring chances.
The same lineup with Vucevic instead of Bismack Biyombo has fared a lot better together, albeit in a smaller sample.
The D.J. Augustin–Evan Fournier–Aaron Gordon-Serge Ibaka-Nikola Vucevic combination has scored 112.4 points per 100 possessions and allowed just less than 86 points per 100 possessions.
They grab about 54 percent of available rebounds and move the ball much more. They rack up about 14 assists per 100 possessions more than their opponents. As a result, they shoot 50 percent from the field and 48 percent from three.
This lineup has not seen as big a sample size as the current one. But the success could lead the coaching staff to give that combination a shot to see if they can sustain some of the success they have had.
Dec 9, 2016; Charlotte, NC, USA; Orlando Magic forward center Nikola Vucevic (9) and center Roy Hibbert (55) fight for a rebound during the second half of the game at the Spectrum Center. Hornets win 109-88. Mandatory Credit: Sam Sharpe-USA TODAY Sports
Defense makes it possible
A big reason this lineup works so well is because of Vucevic’s improvement on the defensive end. His rotations and rim protection have both improved. Surprisingly that has led him to be one of the league’s top defenders in a lot of defensive metrics.
He is the 13th-ranked center in Defensive Real Plus-Minus, a stat derived to calculate a player’s overall contributions to the team on the defensive end. As a comparison, Bismack Biyombo is the 35th center in that stat.
He is also the 20th-ranked player in Defensive Win Shares and Defensive Box Plus Minus. Those stats mean his defense is worth about 2.5 points per 100 possessions more than the average player’s and he has added about 1.2 wins to the team thus far solely off of his defense.
Many fans and media members highlighted his defense as a huge flaw in the past. And rightly so in many instances.
Now it has improved to make Vucevic an even more valuable player to the team.
He is also an elite rebounder and just that one substitution changes this lineup from a poor rebounding lineup to an above-average one.
Vucevic averages 11 rebounds per game, which is good for eighth in the league, and he does that in only about 27 minutes — since coming off the bench, Vucevic is averaging 10.0 rebounds per game.
He has always been a strong rebounder, but has gotten even better this year.
He is grabbing 21.7 percent of all available rebounds, which is sixth in the league. As a comparison, DeMarcus Cousins grabs about 18 percent of available rebounds.
Bismack Biyombo has been a good rebounder, ranking 20th in rebounding percentage, but he has not been enough to make up for his teammates’ sub-par rebounding. Vucevic has.
Feb 3, 2016; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Orlando Magic center Nikola Vucevic (9) shoots the ball over Oklahoma City Thunder center Enes Kanter (11) during the second quarter at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
Added offense
On the other side, this is probably the best lineup the team has offensively.
The big fear for this team before the season was that having two big men on the court could lead to a big logjam in the paint and poor spacing. But Serge Ibaka and Vucevic are good enough shooters that this lineup could manage.
Ibaka shoots about 46 percent on mid-range shots and has been hitting threes at a career high 40.4 percent — on a career high in attempts.
Vucevic has had a bit of a down year so far shooting, but he will likely regress closer to his career average of about 44 percent from mid-range. Eventually, he should start hitting shots, something players on the entire roster are starting to do.
The Magic can mix and match which big is at the perimeter and which works in the post. They can also have instances where they both play out of the paint in order to open up room for Aaron Gordon inside, as Zach Lowe suggested before the season.
The spacing from the bigs also allows the starting guards to thrive from the perimeter.
Evan Fournier has been a strong outside shooter throughout his career, and his game is dependent on shooting threes and driving into the lane for layups.
When the ball movement and spacing are down, he struggles. Fournier is currently hitting threes at 36.5 percent, which is two percentage points lower than his career average.
However, he has shot 42.9 percent from three with Ibaka and Vucevic both on the court according to NBAwowy. When the spacing is better and the offense flows better, Fournier produces better offensively.
Vucevic helps free that up with the offensive attention he creates.
The combination of strong offensive bigs with Fournier and D.J. Augustin, another strong shooting guard, the Magic could be a tough team to guard. That is something that was definitely not expected before the season.
The Magic could spark their bench having playmakers on both sides of the ball and putting Biyombo in more concentrated spurts of energy coming off the bench.
The Magic need to do something to light a fire under the team and spark a jump into the playoff hunt. Bringing Vucevic back into the starting lineup — or playing him with the starters more — may be a way to do just that.
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